Republican Voting Enthusiasm over Democrats Shrinks in 2010?

Gallup poll are reporting that the “Republican Advantage in 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks.” Really? Some times the best substitute for a poll is an election. Before some start to panic, they might want to look at real numbers vs. poll numbers.  What say you Gallup?

Republican registered voters’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterm elections has declined significantly in recent weeks. As a result, Republicans’ advantage over Democrats on this measure has shrunk from 19 points in early April to 10 points in the latest weekly aggregate.

So many on the LEFT have been quick to discount and criticize Scott Rasmussen mainly because his polling shows that Democrats are going to lose big in November 2010 and most all of President Obama’s policies are opposed by a majority of Americans. However, the same LEFT may want to question Gallup’s polling. Rasmussen presently has Republicans ahead of Democrats in the Generic Congressional ballot 44% to 37%.

Gallup states that if the elections were hypothetically held today the voting preference would be a 45% tie. Gallup states that Republican voting enthusiasm is slipping. REALLY?

For the second consecutive week, registered voters remain evenly divided in their current vote preferences between the Republican and Democratic candidates in their congressional districts on Gallup’s “generic ballot.” Republicans had enjoyed a slight edge for most of the period after the passage of healthcare reform in late March until mid- to late April, but had trailed prior to that.

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House Appropriations Committee Chairman Democrat David Obey Will Not Seek Reelection

The writing could well be on the wall for Democrats in 2010 … House will fall.

David Obey (D-WI) House Appropriations Committee Chairman has announced that he will not seek reelection in this Novembers midterm elections, this ending a 41 year House career. This marks real trouble for Democrats in the 2010 midterms.

“I am ready to turn the page, and frankly, I think that my district is ready for someone new to make a fresh start,” Obey said in an afternoon press conference in his committee’s meeting room.

Despite poor poll numbers at home, he insisted that he could win reelection in November but admitted he feared another reapportionment fight in the next Congress and a shift in the public mood against the aggressive public investments which have been his trademark.

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NY Times Just Figuring Out Democrats Could Lose Congress in November Midterms

Who says that the New York Times, the Old Gray Lady is not up on their current affairs? This weekends article, “Democrats’ Long-Held Seats Face G.O.P. Threat”, the NY Times finally figures out that the GOP not only threatens long time Democrat seats, but they also may take over control of the Congress in this November’s midterm elections.

Wow, go figure … Welcome to the party pal, the Tea Party that is. Glad to see they finally coming out of denial and are admitting the inevitable. Because you know LEFT, admission is the first step. The MSM has been demonizing the Tea Parties and their criticisms of government. Has the NY Times finally seen the light?

Representative David R. Obey has won 21 straight races, easily prevailing through wars and economic crises that have spanned presidencies from Nixon’s to Obama’s. Yet the discontent with Washington surging through politics is now threatening not only his seat but also Democratic control of Congress.

Mr. Obey is one of nearly a dozen well-established House Democrats who are bracing for something they rarely face: serious competition. Their predicament is the latest sign of distress for their party and underlines why Republicans are confident of making big gains in November and perhaps even winning back the House.

The fight for the midterm elections is not confined to traditional battlegrounds, where Republicans and Democrats often swap seats every few cycles. In the Senate, Democrats are struggling to hold on to, among others, seats once held by President Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Democrats are preparing to lose as many as 30 House seats — including a wave of first-term members — and Republicans have expanded their sights to places where political challenges seldom develop.

Democrats are preparing to lose 30 House seats. Well, so much for that denial I guess. Hardly, the way the mood of the country is, the loses for Democrats probably start at 35 to 40. Across the country Democrats find them self in real trouble. Blue Dog Democrats in the South are either retiring or find them self out of favor with the voters. Republicans and middle of the road independents realize that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for liberal Nancy Pelosi.

The article in Real Clear Politics, “How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats,” asks the question whether Democrats could lose 70, 80 or 90 seats. The polling data for Democrats is horrific, as Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely. The Rasmussen Generic Ballot poll has Republicans up by 10%, an almost unheard of advantage. The bad economy, unemployment near 10%, President Obama’s job approval rating declining and the controversial agenda like Obamacare at an all time low, all spell disaster for Democrats. The polling data is so bad, if Republicans don’t will the House it would be considered a loss.

Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said he would consider anything short of taking back the House a failure. Republicans say they have not recruited strong candidates in all districts, but both parties agree that Republicans are within reach of capturing the 40 additional seats needed to win control. Republicans also are likely to eat into the Democratic majority in the Senate, though their prospects of taking control remain slim.

For Republicans to take control of the US Senate they would need some races to break right; however, the GOP does stand to make significant gains.  I would tend to disagree with the NY Times map of Senate races as many of which they claim are leaning Democrat like PA, are more so leaning Republican.  With the mood of the country as such, the economy not looking to turn around by November, the electorate still upset over Obamacare and angered further by the recent news that Obamacare will increase costs, Republicans most likely will capture the toss up states and stand to pick up 8 to 9 Senate seats.

Republicans lead in the NY Times so-called vulnerable Senate seats of MO, NH, KY and OH. In the case of New Hampshire and Kentucky, the GOP candidate has a double digit lead. In Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Colorado, it is not a matter if Republicans win, but when. Even Barack Obama’s own former seat has a Republican in the lead in the polls. How bad is it for Democrats? Even Barbra Boxer is in the fight for her political life in California.

In the Senate, Republicans also are looking to make major gains, though their hopes of winning control were set back when Tommy Thompson, a former Wisconsin governor, decided against challenging Mr. Feingold, who is seeking a fourth term. Democrats control the Senate by 59 to 41 seats.

To win the majority, Republicans would essentially have to run the table in races across the country: fending off Democratic challenges to four vulnerable Republican seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio, and capturing 10 seats now held by Democrats. Even in this climate, Republican officials concede that an error-free year is unlikely. Republicans appear to have a shot at winning races in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

They would also have to pick up the seats of decidedly more entrenched — though not unbeatable — incumbents, like Senators Barbara Boxer of California or Patty Murray of Washington.

Remember in November is the battle cry. If one asks the Magic 8 Ball if Democrats will suffer damaging political loses and more than the average number of seats of a first term President … Signs point to Yes.

Former President Bill Clinton Predicts Democrats Will Hold House and Senate

Former President William Jefferson Clinton on ABC’s  This Week predicted  that the Democrats will hold majorities in the House and Senate following the 2010 midterms. With all due respect Mr. Clinton you also stated that “you did not have sex” with that woman Monica Lewinsky and look how that turned out.

Despite growing discontent among conservatives, the former president told ABC’s “This Week” that he doesn’t think Republicans will be able to pull off the kind of congressional takeover they engineered under his watch in 1994.

“I don’t think they will win either house, no. If history is any guide, they should make a few gains, but I don’t expect them to win in either house,” Clinton said.

Clinton likened the political atmosphere in the country to the mood after he signed his economic plan into law, but predicted the backlash would not be as severe.

“I think the dissent is just as intense, if not more intense, but I think the outcome of the election is likely to be far less dramatic than it was in ’94,” Clinton said.

So let’s get this straight, Clinton says that the political mood and climate in the country is similar to that of when he was in office in 2004 when the Republicans had sweeping take overs in the midterms, but some how it will be different for Barack Obama. Clinton likened the discontent of Obama’s health care plan to his economic plan.

The two-term Democratic president suggested the discontent is due in part to a lack of understanding about the benefits of the recently signed health care law, which he compared to discontent over his economic plan.

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Trouble for Those Who Voted for Bail Outs … 57% Have More Trust In Those In Congress Who Voted Against Bailouts

Most Americans still believe today that government is not and should not be the answer to our problems.

There is trouble on the horizon for all those who have in the past voted for bail outs. In a recent Rasmussen poll, 57% of American voters stated that they have more trust for those in Congress who voted against the bail outs than those who voted for. Only 21% stated that they trusted the judgment of a Congress member who voted for the bailouts.

Government bailouts are still a sore subject with most voters. But the Political class remains supportive of efforts to have taxpayers bail out troubled and failing companies.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 57% of likely U.S. voters have more confidence in the judgment of a member of Congress who voted against bailouts than in the judgment of one who voted for them. Just 21% trust the judgment of a Congress member who voted for bailouts more. Another 22% are undecided.

Middle income voters are more supportive of bailout opponents than those with higher or lower incomes.

This can explain why Democrats trail Republicans badly in the Rasmussen Generic Congressional poll and trail in the Real Clear Politics average polling as well.

“Government is not the solution to our problem; Government is the problem.”

This is the issue of this election, whether we believe in our capacity for self government or whether we abandon the American Revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far distant Capitol can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.  (10/24/64 – Ronald Reagan)

Most people think that the bail outs were bad for America and the economy. By a 56% to 30% margin, the voters feel bail outs were a bad idea.  President Ronald Reagan once said that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” No truer words were ever more self evident today in 2010. Once again, the big government, nanny state Democrats have real issues to deal with the voters in the upcoming 2010 and 2012 elections. Independents and voters not affiliated with a political party are strongly against the bail outs and those who voted for them.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 62% of voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties trust a member of Congress who voted against bailouts more. Democratic voters are narrowly divided on the question.

Similarly, 82% of Republicans and 59% of unaffiliated agree with Reagan that government is the problem, not the solution. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats disagree.

Take a good listen to Ronald Reagan’s comments on Capitalism vs. Socialism. Never have the two been more simply explained.

“Socialists ignore the side of man that is of the spirit.  They can provide shelter, fill your belly with bacon and beans, treat you when you are ill, all the things that are guaranteed to a prisoner or a slave. They don’t understand that we also dream …”