Six Months Out to the 2018 Midterm Elections … The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators … 9 Out of 10 are Democrats
TOP 10 SENATOR MOST VULNERABLE IN THE 2018 ELECTIONS … BLUE WAVE? DEMOCRATS LOOK TO LOSE MORE SENATE SEATS.
What do you notice about the Top 10 US Senators listed below who are most vulnerable? None out of ten are Democrats. This election cycle there are an overwhelming number of Democrats up for reelection as opposed to Republicans. Many are in red states that Trump won handily. So before the LEFT starts talking about a blue wave, they have a blue wall to defend. One that came crashing down in 2016.
I agree with the ones on the list; however, I do not agree with the order. The most vulnerable is Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana. With Mike Pence as the VP, Indiana becoming a solid red state and Trump having won by 20% in 2016, Donnelly is all but gone. I would have Tester at #2, McCaskill #3, Manchin #4, Heitcamp #5 and something tells me that Ohio is going red as well in 2018. If Manchin does survive and the GOP gets big wins, look for him to maybe switch parties.
With Democrats all but losing their lead in the Generic ballot polls where even CNN, the all fake news, hate trump news all the time has it at just a 3% lead for Dems or the GOP. In December 2017 CNN has it at 56% Dem and 38% Republican. Reuters is down to 1%.
- Dean Heller, NV, Republican
- Claire McCaskill, MO, Democrat
- Joe Donnelly, IN, Democrat
- Heidi Heitkamp, ND, Democrat
- Joe Manchin, WV, Democrat
- Bill Nelson, FL, Democrat
- Jon Tester, MT, Democrat
- Tammy Basldwin, WI, Democrat
- Sherrod Brown, OH, Democrat
- Bob Casey, PA, Democrat
ROLL CALL PICKS THE TOP 10 SENATORS IN MOST TROUBLE IN THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot.
Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most vulnerable senator remains a Republican.
Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.
The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the 10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining unchanged.
North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth. Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins, whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.
The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh and eighth, respectively.
85 YEAR OLD SHERIFF JOE SAYS HE IS RUNNING FOR US SENATE …
As reported at The Washington Examiner, former Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio is running for Senate in Arizona in open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake. If Joe wins, it would be a tremendous feather in the cap for President Trump replacing the likes of Flake with Arpaio. This is an extremely important Senate race, one the GOP cannot afford to lose.
Republican Joe Arpaio, a close ally of President Trump and former sheriff known for his provocative approach to combating illegal immigration, is running for Senate in Arizona.
The 85-year-old Arpaio could shake up the late August Republican primary in a critical open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. Trump pardoned Arpaio last summer, sparing the former sheriff jail time after he was convicted of ignoring a federal court order in a racial-profiling case.
In a telephone interview with the Washington Examiner, Arpaio shrugged off concerns about his age, dismissed Republican insiders’ anxiety that his poor reputation with nonwhite voters would put the seat in play for the Democrats in the midterm, and discussed plans to work with Trump on behalf of Arizona.
“I have a lot to offer. I’m a big supporter of President Trump,” Arpaio said. “I’m going to have to work hard; you don’t take anything for granted. But I would not being doing this if I thought that I could not win. I’m not here to get my name in the paper, I get that everyday, anyway.”
LET’S MAKE ONE THING CLEAR, THIS IS NOT ALL FRANKEN’S SEAT … IT’S THE PEOPLE OF MINNESOTA’S SEAT!
Following Sen. Al Franken’s early departure from the U.S. Senate, former Republican congresswoman Michele Bachmann stated that she was contemplating running for the Minnesota Senate seat. Bachmann made the revelation during an interview with televangelist Jim Bakker where she said that her trust in God will guide her in making a final decision on the matter. After being accused by multiple women of sexual misconduct, Al Franken got out of Dodge early so not to face the music and consequences of his actions.
Former GOP congresswoman and presidential candidate Michele Bachmann says she is considering running for Democratic former Sen. Al Franken’s Minnesota seat.
Bachmann, who was a member of Congress representing Minnesota until 2015, told “The Jim Bakker Show” in an interview that aired last week that she’s mulling over whether she should run. Franken announced he would leave the Senate following accusations that he had groped several women, and his final day as a senator is Tuesday.
“I’ve had people contact me and urge me to run for that Senate seat,” Bachmann said. “The only reason I would run is for the ability to take these principles into the United States Senate,” she said, later adding, “The question is should it be me? Should it be now? But there’s also a price you pay. And the price is bigger than ever because the swamp is so toxic.”
“We’re trying to be wise,” Bachmann continued, suggesting that Franken was dropped by Democrats because the party wants to be able to hurl false accusations against Republicans in coming elections.
“But there’s also a price you pay [getting into politics], and the price is bigger than ever because the swamp is so toxic,” she continued. “It is really tough. If you’re going against the tide in D.C. — if you’re trying to stand for biblical principles in D.C., you stick your head up out of the hole, [then] the blades come roaring and they try to chop you off. This is not an easy place to be.”
Mrs. Bachmann said she and her husband are “trying to be wise” in weighing their options.
“I mean, I trust in a big God and so he got us over all those finish lines, but I also believed I was supposed to run for president,” she said. “I didn’t even run because I thought I was going to win. I ran to put the whole issue of Obamacare front and center before the American people. I feel like I was wildly successful, because by the time I left the presidential race, all seven men on the stage were forced to take my position of repeal … and the Republican Party platform had to change to reflect my position.”
Another Female Accuser Comes Forward Against GOP Senate Candidate Roy Moore … Accused of Sexual Assault of a Minor (VIDEO)
MOORE TROUBLE … Another accuser against Roy Moore comes forward …
If these accusations are true, they are damning and criminal. But what is the truth? The latest accuser of Roy Moore, Beverly Young Nelson, stated that when she was 16, Moore groped her in a car, locked the doors, grabbed her neck in an attempt to force sexual contact and left her with bruises after she escaped. She seems credible; however, why on earth she would have hired attorney Gloria Allred is a huge negative. She is also reading a script. The accuser claims that her neck was black and blue and purple. Wouldn’t some one have noticed this like her mother or her boyfriend? Roy Moore denies the allegations.
Beverly Young Nelson, appearing with Gloria Allred, said that when she was 16 Moore groped her in a car, locked the doors, grabbed her neck in an attempt to force sexual contact and left her with bruises after she escaped. Her story will be subjected to scrutiny, but as a self-described Trump voter, Nelson has no apparent motivation to lie. She is the first accuser to say that Moore accosted her, and in fact says she feared he would rape her.
Only one thing is certain in this she said, he said situation. Whether credible or not, it is heinous. It is a shame that something like this did not come out much sooner than four weeks prior to a Senate election vote. Sorry, but that stinks as well. Roy Moore has run for many public offices in Alabama. One would have thought such news of this type of behavior would have come out then. But it did not. One would have thought the accusers, some of which claim to be Trump voters would have come out with these allegations during the GOP primary against Luther Strange, not now. But they did. Who really knows what happened. It was nearly 40 years ago. Usually in such situations, there is her side, his side and then the truth. The fact that Gloria Allred is involved in this matter makes me very weary. The question does arise, if everyone was so in the know about what type of individual he was and his conduct with teens in the past, how did this info no come out sooner with opposition research for the establishment GOP in the primaries?
UPDATE I: 50 pastors posts support from Roy Moore.
Kayla Moore, wife of Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, shared a letter on Facebook over the weekend indicating support from more than 50 Alabama pastors. Not all the pastors said they gave permission for their name to be be used on what appears to be a recycled letter from before the GOP primary, however.
Moore’s wife Kayla posted the letter to her Facebook page Sunday after days of controversy surrounding her husband and allegations he had sexual contact with a 14-year-old in 1979 when he was 32-years-old. Three other women said Moore pursued them as teenagers. The letter was posted before a fifth woman, Beverly Young Nelson, came forward with additional charges Monday.
Moore denies the charges.
In their letter, the pastors said Moore was an “immovable rock in the culture wars,” and has met attacks with a “rare unconquerable resolve.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell believes the allegations against Alabama Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore and that Moore should leave the race, the Kentucky Republican said Monday.
“I believe the women, yes,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky.
McConnell, the Senate’s top Republican and a frequent target of Moore on the campaign trail, said, “I think he should step aside.”
DEMOCRATS HAVE A TOUGH BATTLE IN THE SENATE IN 2018 … ITS A NUMBERS GAME.
As reported from The Hill, there are 7 US Senate seats that are likely to flip in the 2018 elections. However, they may not exactly flip the way the media thinks they will. Just from the mere numbers that both parties have to defend, the GOP has an advantage. Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, two of which are considered vulnerable. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016. Many of the states Trump won wide huge margins. The MSM is so quick to reference President Trump’s “dismal” approval rating. However, you know who has an even worse approval rating by far? Congress does. One would think that Democrats from Montana, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri are all but gone. Why these “RED” states have Democrat Senators is puzzling at best.President Trump needs to vigorously campaign for these GOP candidates and preferably hand pick ones that are not Rino’s, but actual Republicans and preferably Conservatives.
The one GOP seat that will most likely flip is Heller in Nevada. The state has been trending blue for years. However, I disagree with Sen. Flake of Arizona. One of two things will happen. Either Fake will be primary challenged by a candidate backed by Trump and win or Flake will get his act in gear. My personal opinion is he must go. Others that need to be added to the list of flipping is Democrat Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. All are obstructionist Democrat senators from states won by Trump in 2016. The GOP has an opportunity of a lifetime in 2018, the questions is, will Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blow it.?
Next year’s midterm elections will provide Republicans with a major opportunity to build their majority in the Senate — if they can overcome President Trump’s dismal approval ratings and internal party rancor.
The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.
1. Dean Heller (R-Nev.)
Heller is the only Republican up for reelection in 2018 who represents a state that Hillary Clinton won last November. Making matters worse for Heller, he’s had a rough 2017.
Democrats are largely falling in line behind Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), a strong challenger with backing from former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the dean of Nevada Democrats. Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is still weighing a bid, but Democrats’ near-uniform support for Rosen could squeeze Titus out of the race and give the party more time to focus on Heller.
2. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
McCaskill is one of the few statewide Democratic officeholders left in Missouri, which Trump won by 19 points in November.
The two-term senator spent 2016 as one of Hillary Clinton’s top surrogates, mounting a strong defense of the Democratic presidential nominee that McCaskill’s rivals believe will become a weakness in her own campaign.
McCaskill’s party also just lost Missouri’s 2016 Senate race, despite a strong campaign from Democrat Jason Kander.
3. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Donnelly leveraged a bipartisan approach to politics and his blue-collar appeal into a Senate seat in 2012, but he’ll have to fight yet another tough battle if he wants to keep his Senate seat in a state Trump won by 19 points.
4. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.)
Flake wouldn’t rank this high in a normal election year, but a Republican president threatening to support a primary challenge to an incumbent GOP senator isn’t normal, either.
The Arizona senator’s path to reelection has grown more difficult as his feud with Trump heats up. Earlier in August, Trump called Flake “toxic” in a tweet where he applauded Kelli Ward, Flake’s primary opponent. And the president’s upcoming Tuesday rally in Arizona could give him a stage to take more shots at Flake or even officially endorse a primary opponent.
5. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
In 2016, West Virginia went for Trump by a larger margin than any other state — 42 points.
That resounding victory hasn’t been lost on Manchin, who’s made it a point to try to work with the president and Senate GOP colleagues. Another factor counting in his favor: Manchin’s consistent record of winning statewide office in the West Virginia since 2001, despite the state’s rightward drift.
But Trump’s popularity in West Virginia has drawn interest from strong Republican candidates, and the winner will pose a serious threat to Manchin’s political future. And Democrats can’t be encouraged by Gov. Jim Justice’s decision to ditch them and become a Republican last month, a decision he announced with Trump at his side.
6. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.)
Heitkamp hails from another deep-red state — North Dakota went for Trump by about 36 points.
Like Manchin, Heitkamp has walked the line between the party’s opposition to Trump and his popularity among her constituents — briefly floated as a potential Agriculture Secretary, Heitkamp, like Manchin, voted for more than two-thirds of Trump’s Cabinet appointments.
7. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)
Republicans have a lot to like about their Montana prospects. Trump won the state by more than 20 points in November, and Republican Greg Gianforte just won the state’s at-large congressional seat in a special election — even after he assaulted a reporter.
Tester has never hit 50 percent in either of his two Senate bids, winning each election with 49 percent after a libertarian candidate siphoned off part of the vote.