Latest NBC Marist Poll Shows GOP Opening Up Leads in Key Senate Races Ahead of 2014 Midterms

Republicans need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections in order to wrestle control away from Harry Reid and Democrats.

The GOP need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in order to gain control of the US Senate. A recent NBC/Marist poll shows that although Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall is still leading in Colorado, Republicans are surging in the key “red” state races in Kentucky and Arkansas. US Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%. Although Kentucky is not a pickup for the GOP, some Democrats have thought that it could be a possible loss for the GOP. However, that does not appear to be the case. In reality, the GOP already is at a +3 as Republicans will pick up seats in the open Senate races formerly held by Democrats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.

Other Senate seats currently held by Democrats that are now in play include Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan.  My person opinion is that the GOP with have a net pick up of 7, possibly 8 Senate seats. If all things go right, it could be 9, but my gut feeling says this will not be a wave election like in 2010 because too many establishment Republicans are running and the establishment appears to have no clue that their conservative base is what wins elections. Not being Democrat light.

US Rep. Cotton (R-AR) calls Democrat Sen. Pryor a good Obama foot soldier, who was the deciding vote for Obamacare and who has voted with Obama 93% of the time.

Republican Senate candidates have opened up leads in the key states of Arkansas and Kentucky, putting them in a strong position to win back the U.S. Senate, according to new NBC News/Marist polls.

But another NBC/Marist poll shows Democrats holding on in the blue state of Colorado, suggesting a limit to the gains that Republicans could make in November.

In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.

And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.

Daily Commentary – Tuesday, April 1, 2014 – Colorado Man Claims “License Plate Profiling” in Suit

  • Darien Roseen filed suit in Idaho a year after being pulled over and searched for marijuana he claims due to his Colorado license plates.



Daily Commentary – Tuesday, April 1, 2014 Download

Thanks Barack Obama and Democrats … 250,000 Colorado Healthcare Plans Cancelled Under Obamacare

Just remember Colorado, not one Republican in the House or Senate voted for Obamacare …

More bad news for Americans courtesy of President Barack “you can keep your plan” Obama, Nancy “we have to pass the bill to find out what is in it” Pelosi and Dingy Harry. Fox 31 – Denver is reporting that the Colorado Department of Insurance is saying that  nearly 250,000 Coloradans insurance policies will be canceled as a result of Obamacare. Colorado, you were a battle ground state in the 2012 presidential election and it was  you who voted for Obama in 2012 and you really have no one to blame but yourself. You had been warned what would happen when Obamacare was implemented and you still bought the lie.

Colorado

There are nearly 250,000 Coloradans whose health care policies have been or will be cancelled as a result of the Affordable Care Act, the state’s Dept. of Insurance announced on Wednesday.

Many of the policies are being cancelled because of stipulations under the new law that force insurers to cover certain things that weren’t covered under the old policies; other plans are being cancelled by insurers because they’re no longer cost-effective.

The cancellation letters sent out by the insurers must notify a consumer that the 2013 policy is cancelled, and must also highlight options for new coverage.

“Consumers who have questions about these letters or any questions about their health insurance policy should contact the Division,” said Commissioner of Insurance Marguerite Salazar.  “While some plans are being cancelled, Coloradoans have many new options for 2014, due to the strength and competitiveness of our health insurance market.”

George Will Predicts Romney Landslide 321-217 on ABC’s ‘This Week” … Similar to Barone’s Landslide Prediction

Most pundits are calling the 2012 Presidential race too close to call as the RCP averages of polls have it a dead tie.

However, that did not stop conservative columnist on ABC’s “This Week’ to predict a Mitt Romney electoral landslide. Will predicted a 321-217 electoral victory for Romney. What I do find interesting is that a couple of people have gone out on a limb and said that Romney will get over 300 electoral votes; however, no one is really saying that Obama will do such. What we are seeing from Will and Barone is that if the undecided’s break for the challenger Mitt Romney, battleground states could fall like dominoes for Romney.

On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.

“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”

Add Will’s landslide prediction to that of numbers cruncher extraordinaire Michael Barone. His prediction of a landslide is based
on fundamentals, a majority of Americans are against Obama’s policies.  and a sluggish economy where job growth and recovery has been far too slow. Barone is predicting a Romney 315, Obama 223 landslide. Barone stated that it sounds high for Romney, but he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 ). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
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Is Romney Having a Late Surge in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota?

MITTMENTUM …

There have been so many polls and so many divergent polling models that have oversampled democrats that something is going to have to give come election day. The voter turnout will make the difference and it is hard to believe that democrats will come out for Obama as they did in 2008. Romney has the enthusiasm on his side. They question is whether it will be enough to carry him over the finish line.

That being said, there appears to be a late surge for Mitt Romney just two days before the 2012 Presidential election. Recent polls  from Rasmussen have Romney up in Colorado, 50%-47%.

A Pittsburgh Tribune poll out today has the race a tie in the Keystone state. TIED, PENNSYLVANIA? Is this the reason why Romney bout ads and is going to Pennsylvania in the days heading up to the election.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.

We had previously discussed the rather surprising poll out of Michigan.

The battleground state of Ohio has conflicting polls. The Hill had Romney over Obama 49% – 47%. The Columbus Dispatch has their poll going to Obama 50% to 48%.  However, the poll sampling is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 21% independent.

The Gateway Pundit has a list of many positive polls for GOP Presidential challenger Romney that could sweep him to victory. The PJ Tatler says that Romney has “mittmentum” in in PA, MI and even NY!

And now for the unheard of, in deep blue Minnesota, among likely voters Romney is actually leading Obama, 47% to 46%. Really folks if Obama is not going to win sold blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin by double digits, he has a real problem.

Obama in Trouble …Obama Campaign Walking Away From Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado

Is Barack Obama giving up and reading the Romney handwriting on the wall in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado? As stated at Hot Air, one has to look way down in the article to find this gem of info  that is the most significant part of the entire piece.

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

As Hot Air stated, is Team Obama doing electoral triage? Has Romney’s surge in so many battleground states and in states that were supposed to be lean Obama that it is stretching Obama’s resources? Is Obama’s vulnerability in so many states coming back to haunt him? It would appear that Obama may be redrawing his fire line.

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.

How Will Unemployment Affect the Vote in 2012 … Real Unemployment Reaches 20% In 7 Colorado Counties

COLORADO, ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO. OBAMANOMICS HAS FAILED COLORADO …

As reported at the Colorado Observer, Colorado’s official unemployment rate is 8.2%; however, the “real unemployment” rate has reached 20% in seven Colorado counties. Making matters worse, it is the first time in y years that the official Colorado rate surpassed the national unemployment rate. The counties with such massive real unemployment are Costilla County at 23.56%, Pueblo 20.09%, Montrose 20.62%, Fremont 19.66%, Huerfano 21.78%, Archuleta 19.97% and Dolores at 19.85%.

In seven counties in Colorado unemployed individuals are close to or exceeding 20% of the population, a letter from the Chief Economist of CDLE to the U.S. Department of Agriculture says.

The letter, obtained through the Colorado Open Records Act, was sent August 29 as required by federal law. According to the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act, the Colorado Labor Department is required to certify counties where the “Not Employed Rate” surpasses 19.5%.

The “Not Employed Rate” is defined as “the percentage of individuals over the age of 18 who reside within the community and who are ready, willing and able to be employed but are unable to find employment as determined by the State Department of Labor.”

Ranking highest was Costilla County at 23.56 percent. The list runs from larger counties like Pueblo (20.09%), Montrose (20.62%) and Fremont (19.66%) to smaller populations like Huerfano (21.78%), Archuleta (19.97%) and Dolores (19.85%).

The unemployment rate in Colorado in 2008 was 4.8%. Barack Obama won Colorado in the 2008 Presidential election 54% to 45%.

With such real unemployment affecting those in Colorado, one really has to speculate as to how this will affect voting in the 2012 Presidential election as Colorado is considered a battle ground state. Currently RCP has Obama ahead in the averaging of polls; however, Rasmussen has Romney up by 2%. It’s hard to imagine that individuals would vote for an incumbent President whose economic policies have failed a state so badly.

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