ITS STILL A LONG SHOT, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE OF A SHOT TODAY THAN THERE WAS 2 WEEKS AGO …
CNN is reporting that there are several ways that Donald Trump could reach the magical number of 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Two weeks ago there was seemingly no chance that Trump could win. Then came the reports of the insane Obamacare premium increases and then came the news that the FBI was reopening the Hillary Clinton private server/email investigation as emails pertaining to the case were found on the laptop belonging to Anthony Weiner, under investigation for sexting with a minor. Then the added investigation of the Clinton Foundation. The polls are trending toward Donald Trump, however, is it too little, too late? We shall see this Tuesday.
Donald Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes remains precarious — but with some breaks, he can get there.
Trump’s campaign has made clear exactly what its targets are. It is spending $25 million on TV ads in the final week of the campaign in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Those ad buys are based on the assumption that Trump doesn’t need extra help to keep Arizona, Georgia, Utah, Texas or any other traditionally red state in the Republican column Trump starts with four must-wins: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa.
Those — plus making sure he doesn’t surrender other typically Republican states, and winning the one electoral vote that can come from Maine’s Second Congressional District — get Trump to 260 electoral votes. (read more)
Fox News Poll: Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton in Battlegrounds States of Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio
TRUMP IS SURGING IN POLLS …
According to the most recent FOX News polls, Donald Trump is surging in the polls and leads Hillary Clinton in three key battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. The key is that not only is Trump ahead in these battleground states, but he has the momentum at the right time and is surging. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton seems to have come to a halt and only has a complicit, bias and water carrying media propping her up.
Trump surges in Nevada, Donald Trump holds a 3-point lead over Clinton among likely voters in a three-way race that included Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee. Trump has 43% of support, Clinton 40% and Johnson’s 8%. In North Carolina, Trump was up by 5 points, leading Clinton by 45% to 40%, with Johnson at 6%. In Ohio, Trump has a 5-point lead over Clinton, with 42% of support. Clinton has 37% in a four-way poll that included Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee.
Interestingly enough, Obama won Nevada in 2008 (55%-43%) and 2012 (52%-46%), Ohio in 2008 (52%-47%) and 2012 (51%-48%) and North Carolina in 2008 (50%-49%). Hillary Clinton is under-performing in states that Obama easily won in the past.
Trump has a three-point advantage over Clinton among likely voters in the Silver State (43-40 percent). Libertarian Gary Johnson receives eight percent. Nevada voters also can cast a ballot for “none of these,” and that option takes four percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada.
Independents back Trump (42 percent) over Clinton (23 percent) and Johnson (21 percent).
The Democrat is trailing expectations among women and younger voters.
In North Carolina, Trump is up by five points among likely voters. He receives 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent, and 6 percent favor Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot.
Whites back Trump by a 31-point margin (58-27 percent), while blacks support Clinton by 82 points (85-3 percent).
Independents favor Trump (41 percent) over Clinton (24 percent) and Johnson (14 percent).
The Buckeye State is another must-win for Trump, and the poll finds him up by five points among likely voters: 42-37 percent. Johnson receives six percent and Stein gets two percent.
Trump’s edge over Clinton comes mainly from independents (+20 points) and working-class whites (+26). Clinton’s up by just three points among women. Obama won them by 11 in 2012
RUBIO AND CRUZ, HOPE WHAT HAPPENS IN
VEGAS NEVADA, STAYS IN VEGAS NEVADA …
Last night Donald Trump easily won the Nevada caucus by more than doubling his second and third place opponents. This is the third straight victory for Trump as he previously won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. A record turn out showed up for the Nevada caucuses. And it would seem that all demographics voted for Trump. With 96% of the vote in Trump was dominating the race with 45.9%. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were in a narrow battle for second with Rubio at 23.9% and Cruz at 21.4%.
Donald Trump trounced his rivals in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, notching his third consecutive victory and giving the Manhattan mogul even more momentum heading into Super Tuesday next week, when voters in a dozen states will cast their ballots.
Trump’s decisive win, which the Associated Press announced immediately after polls closed, was propelled by an electorate even more enraged than the ones that had swept him to wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and a second-place showing in Iowa.
“We love Nevada. We love Nevada,” Trump declared in his victory speech. “You’re going to be proud of your president and you’re going to be even prouder of your country.”
In his post caucus victory speech Trump said, “We weren’t expected to win too much and now we’re winning, winning, winning the country. And soon the country is going to start winning, winning, winning.” Trump continued to say, “We won the evangelicals. We won with young. With won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated.” What might be even more astounding is that he won 44% of the Lationos that voted in Nevada. Unbelievable. More than both Cruz and Rubio who are of Latino origin.
Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in the delegate count; however, the focus turns to Super Tuesday, March 1 where 13 states will hold their primaries. But it appears that Trump holds the lead in 9 of the 13 states.
HILLARY IN DEEP TROUBLE IN NEVADA …
According to a recent CNN poll, Hillary Clinton and self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders are in a virtual tie ahead of Saturday’s Nevada caucuses. Hillary Clinton’s Nevada firewall has crumbled. The poll shows that 48% of likely caucus attendees say they support Clinton, while 47% support Sanders. The state’s caucuses takes place on Saturday, February 20. Is it possible that Hillary could lose again to someone who was initially believed to be an also-ran? Just how weak a candidate is Hillary Clinton and what is going to happen to her campaign if, or should we say when, the FBI recommends charges for crimes related to her private email server?
Likely Democratic caucusgoers in Nevada are split almost evenly between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders ahead of Saturday’s caucuses, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Though Clinton holds an edge over Sanders on handling a range of top issues, the results suggest the extremely close race hinges on divided opinions on the economy.
Overall, 48% of likely caucus attendees say they support Clinton, 47% Sanders. Both candidates carry their demographic strong points from prior states into Nevada, with Clinton holding an edge among women, while Sanders tops the former secretary of state among voters under age 55.
“Overall, Clinton holds broad advantages as more trusted on foreign policy, race relations, immigration and health care, but likely caucusgoers are split 48% for Clinton and 47% for Sanders on the economy,” CNN reported. “Among those likely caucusgoers who call the economy their top issue in choosing a candidate, more support Sanders: 52% back him vs. 43% for Clinton.”
George Will Predicts Romney Landslide 321-217 on ABC’s ‘This Week” … Similar to Barone’s Landslide Prediction
Most pundits are calling the 2012 Presidential race too close to call as the RCP averages of polls have it a dead tie.
However, that did not stop conservative columnist on ABC’s “This Week’ to predict a Mitt Romney electoral landslide. Will predicted a 321-217 electoral victory for Romney. What I do find interesting is that a couple of people have gone out on a limb and said that Romney will get over 300 electoral votes; however, no one is really saying that Obama will do such. What we are seeing from Will and Barone is that if the undecided’s break for the challenger Mitt Romney, battleground states could fall like dominoes for Romney.
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”
Add Will’s landslide prediction to that of numbers cruncher extraordinaire Michael Barone. His prediction of a landslide is based
on fundamentals, a majority of Americans are against Obama’s policies. and a sluggish economy where job growth and recovery has been far too slow. Barone is predicting a Romney 315, Obama 223 landslide. Barone stated that it sounds high for Romney, but he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 ). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.