Wikileaks Show New Podesta Email Exposes the Democrat Playbook For Rigging Polls Through “Oversamples”
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO STILL DENY DEMOCRAT MANIPULATION OF POLLING DATA AND OVER-SAMPLING COMES THE FOLLOWING …
From Zero Hedege comes the following report on more information coming from Podesta’s emails. This time it is the Democrat play book on how they rig polls by purposely over-sampling to get the outcome they they want. Imagine that? Just recently an ABC/WAPO poll has Clinton up by 12 points over Trump. Really, who honestly believes any candidate would have a 12 point lead? It happens when you skew polling data and over sample by 9 points. So what is this farce intended to do, depress the voting turnout of course and have people believe that Hillary is so far out ahead, there is no reason to vote.
Shameful, simply, corrupt and shameful.
“METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats – Republicans – Independents.”
More from the emails of Podesta and the rigging of polling results:
Now, for all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are “adjusted”, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to “manufacture” the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”
I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
- Over-sample Hispanics
- Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
- Over-sample the Native American population
For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.” Meanwhile, “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.
- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
- On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
Meanwhile, it’s suggested that national polls over sample “key districts / regions” and “ethnic” groups “as needed.”
- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
- Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
- Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed
Poll on Polls Being Biased … Plurality of Americans Believe Polls Biased for Obama, 7 in 10 Republicans Say Pollsters Intentionally Skewing Results to Help Obama
Even a liberal poll has the conclusion that there is bias polling to benefit Obama …
With all the talk of bias and skewed political polls, today we are presented with a poll on pools being biased. As reported at The Hill, the results of the poll were that a plurality of Americans believe that the polls are biased to benefit President Barack Obama. Also, more than 7 in 10 Republicans believe the bias polls are intentionally skewed to help Obama and a remarkable 84-5 percent margin from the Tea Party. And who came to this conclusion that the polls were skewed? Those right-wingers at the Daily Kos and SEIU of course.
A plurality of Americans and more than seven in 10 Republicans say pollsters are intentionally skewing results to benefit President Obama, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
Some 42 percent of voters surveyed by Daily Kos and SEIU believe pollsters are manipulating their sample sizes to benefit the incumbent president, while 40 percent do not. An additional 18 percent said they were not sure. That’s evidence that Republican claims that Democrats and minority voters are being oversampled in national polls could be resonating — and potentially undermining the momentum of the president’s early lead.
But Republicans are particularly likely to believe that the polls are unfair, reporting by a 71-13 percent margin that polls are biased against their candidate. Members of the Tea Party suspect intentional skewing by a remarkable 84-5 percent margin.
Hmm, I wonder what sampling the Daily Kos used to get the results that polls are intentionally skewed to benefit Obama, +9D? That would be a joke. However, the same cannot be said on the recently released CNN poll that shows Romney closing the gap on Obama only because CNN skewed the sampling less. That was not the case in the recent NY Times – Quinnipiac polls that had a +9D and greater sampling.
Another Comical Faux Poll From CNN … Obama Up on Romney 50% to 47% … Romney Winning Independents By 8 Points, Huh?
More “FAUX” polling from CNN … CNN says that race remains close, but Obama ahead, REALLY? The in the tank for Obama media trting to sway an election.
The polls are starting to resemble a SNL skit.According to the most recent CNN poll, Obama garners 50% of the vote and GOP Presidential challenger Mitt Romney captures 47%. However, this lead has diminished from from a CNN poll taken after the conventions, Sept. 7-9, 2012, where Obama had a 52% – 46% lead.
Obama lead? He is losing Independents by 11% to Romney
Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the CNN survey, which was released Monday, say that if the election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 47% saying they would support Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. The president’s three point margin is within the poll’s sampling error.
Full Poll results can be seen HERE.
However, buried in the details of the polling data is the following …Romney has as 11 point lead with Independents, but trails in the poll by 3. How is that possible? Haven’t we been told that it would be the “Independent” vote that would decide the election? This is what happens when a bias media affects polling data and weights the polling sampling by +8 Democrat.
As stated at Powerline, The Parade of Bad Polls, Continued. Is Romney surging in the CNN poll? Nope, they cut the sampling from +12 D to +8 to get an Obama 3 point lead. So what happens when CNN takes the poll sampling to a more reasonable+2D? Why that would mean a Romney 3 point lead of course.
Today the Romney campaign is trumpeting the latest CNN/ORC poll which shows President Obama with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, 50%-47%. The Romney campaign likes this result, apparently, because it represents a significant improvement over the last CNN/ORC poll, which came out three weeks ago. In that survey, CNN/ORC found a six-point Obama lead.
I wrote about the earlier poll here, pointing out that it obviously over-sampled Democrats. A reader calculated that, given other data in the survey, the six-point difference was consistent with a breakdown of D-38%, R-26% and I-36%. I wrote that the most significant point in the CNN poll results was that independents favored Romney over Obama by a remarkable 14 points.
So today’s CNN/ORC poll has Obama’s lead cut in half, to three points. Does that mean that Romney is surging? Not really. It means they didn’t call quite as many Democrats. This time, the pollsters gave us the partisan breakdown of their sample: D-37%, R-29% and I-34%. So when the partisan gap in the sample narrowed from D +12 to D +8, Romney did three points better. Well, yeah.
GOP VP Candidate Paul Ryan Comments on Media Bias …“As a Conservative I’ve Long Believed There’s Inherent Media Bias”
MEDIA BIAS, SAY IT ISN’T SO …
This morning on FOX News Sunday with Chris Wallace, GOP Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan was asked about media bias and whether the MSM was carrying the water for President Barack Obama? I almost expected Ryan to answer by giving a response like, YA THINK, I thought they were part of the Reelect Obama team? Instead, Ryan responded by saying, “As a conservative I’ve long believed there’s inherent media bias”.
“I think it goes without saying that there is definitely media bias. Look I am a Conservative, I am used to media Bias, we expected media bias … As a conservative I’ve long believed there’s inherent media bias. And I think anyone with objectivity would believe that is the case today.” … I think most people in the MSM are left of center and therefore want a very left of center President versus a Conservative President like Mitt Romney.”
Chris Wallace had asked for examples of media bias. Ryan should have said there is not enough time on your show or in the day to provide such details.
VIDEO Hat Tip: The Gateway Pundit
Dana Pretzer had a commentary this past week on the “Unprecedented Media Bias” .
Two-dozen conservative activists and media personalities on Tuesday urged members of their respective groups to switch off the “biased news media,” claiming in an open letter that establishment media are “out of control with a deliberate and unmistakable leftist agenda.”
Conservative leaders claim unprecedented media bias this election cycle.
Though these groups frequently complain about a left-leaning media bias, they claimed in the letter that the political slant this cycle is unprecedented.
“In the quarter century since the Media Research Center was established to document liberal media bias, there has never been a more brazen and complete attempt by the liberal so-called ‘news’ media to decide the outcome of an election,” wrote Brent Bozell, president of the Media Research Center, and other conservative leaders.
Skewed Polling Take Notice … Big Drop in Voter Registration in Ohio in Democrat Strongholds, And Other Battle Ground States
A note to Barack Obama, Democrats, the liberal MSM and those conducting polls with skewed data sampling … It ain’t 2008 and Democrat voter registration down dramatically in Ohio and nationally.
Here is a new story that the corrupt liberal media complex in the tan for President Barack Obama will never tell you, Democrat voter registration down big in 2012 as compared to 2008. FOX News is reporting that a left leaning liberal think tank, Third Way, conducted a study that indicates a drop in Democrat registered voters in key battle ground states. For example. in Ohio there are 490,000 fewer registered voters than in 2008, 44% of whom reside in Cleveland and Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1. So why again would polling samples be weighted to Democrats greater than in 2008 again?
Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.
“I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in Ohio,” Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. “It’s not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.”
Frost points out that those three counties all contain urban centers, where the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.
Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.
It also supports the notion that there has been the kind of party affiliation shift Rasmussen has documented (from Dems +7.6 in November 2008 to GOP +4.3 in August 2012), and the related notion that polls containing far more Democrats than Republicans do not representative sample the way things are now, i.e., that they’re seriously cooked.
UPDATE I: the Lonely Conservative …Thanks for the link!