Six Months Out to the 2018 Midterm Elections … The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators … 9 Out of 10 are Democrats
TOP 10 SENATOR MOST VULNERABLE IN THE 2018 ELECTIONS … BLUE WAVE? DEMOCRATS LOOK TO LOSE MORE SENATE SEATS.
What do you notice about the Top 10 US Senators listed below who are most vulnerable? None out of ten are Democrats. This election cycle there are an overwhelming number of Democrats up for reelection as opposed to Republicans. Many are in red states that Trump won handily. So before the LEFT starts talking about a blue wave, they have a blue wall to defend. One that came crashing down in 2016.
I agree with the ones on the list; however, I do not agree with the order. The most vulnerable is Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana. With Mike Pence as the VP, Indiana becoming a solid red state and Trump having won by 20% in 2016, Donnelly is all but gone. I would have Tester at #2, McCaskill #3, Manchin #4, Heitcamp #5 and something tells me that Ohio is going red as well in 2018. If Manchin does survive and the GOP gets big wins, look for him to maybe switch parties.
With Democrats all but losing their lead in the Generic ballot polls where even CNN, the all fake news, hate trump news all the time has it at just a 3% lead for Dems or the GOP. In December 2017 CNN has it at 56% Dem and 38% Republican. Reuters is down to 1%.
- Dean Heller, NV, Republican
- Claire McCaskill, MO, Democrat
- Joe Donnelly, IN, Democrat
- Heidi Heitkamp, ND, Democrat
- Joe Manchin, WV, Democrat
- Bill Nelson, FL, Democrat
- Jon Tester, MT, Democrat
- Tammy Basldwin, WI, Democrat
- Sherrod Brown, OH, Democrat
- Bob Casey, PA, Democrat
ROLL CALL PICKS THE TOP 10 SENATORS IN MOST TROUBLE IN THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
Nevada Republican Dean Heller remains in top spot.
Senate Democrats are still defending 10 states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, but six months out from Election Day, the most vulnerable senator remains a Republican.
Nevada Sen. Dean Heller no longer faces a primary threat, but he’s the only Republican up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won, and in this national environment that’s a tricky place to be.
The Democrats’ odds of flipping a few GOP-held open seats in Arizona and Tennessee have increased over the past six months, but this list — like the one we did a year out from Election Day — ranks incumbents most likely to lose — not seats most likely to flip. That means nine of the 10 senators are Democrats, with the second and third spots remaining unchanged.
North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III have traded places, with Heitkamp now at fourth and Manchin at fifth. Democrats would have been happy to face Don Blankenship in the West Virginia Senate race, but they’re also not getting Rep. Evan Jenkins, whom they spent nearly $2 million against in the primary.
The biggest change is Florida Sen. Bill Nelson moving up from eighth to sixth with Gov. Rick Scott’s entry into the race. That pushes Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown down a spot each to seventh and eighth, respectively.
DEMOCRATS HAVE A TOUGH BATTLE IN THE SENATE IN 2018 … ITS A NUMBERS GAME.
As reported from The Hill, there are 7 US Senate seats that are likely to flip in the 2018 elections. However, they may not exactly flip the way the media thinks they will. Just from the mere numbers that both parties have to defend, the GOP has an advantage. Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, two of which are considered vulnerable. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016. Many of the states Trump won wide huge margins. The MSM is so quick to reference President Trump’s “dismal” approval rating. However, you know who has an even worse approval rating by far? Congress does. One would think that Democrats from Montana, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri are all but gone. Why these “RED” states have Democrat Senators is puzzling at best.President Trump needs to vigorously campaign for these GOP candidates and preferably hand pick ones that are not Rino’s, but actual Republicans and preferably Conservatives.
The one GOP seat that will most likely flip is Heller in Nevada. The state has been trending blue for years. However, I disagree with Sen. Flake of Arizona. One of two things will happen. Either Fake will be primary challenged by a candidate backed by Trump and win or Flake will get his act in gear. My personal opinion is he must go. Others that need to be added to the list of flipping is Democrat Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. All are obstructionist Democrat senators from states won by Trump in 2016. The GOP has an opportunity of a lifetime in 2018, the questions is, will Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blow it.?
Next year’s midterm elections will provide Republicans with a major opportunity to build their majority in the Senate — if they can overcome President Trump’s dismal approval ratings and internal party rancor.
The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.
1. Dean Heller (R-Nev.)
Heller is the only Republican up for reelection in 2018 who represents a state that Hillary Clinton won last November. Making matters worse for Heller, he’s had a rough 2017.
Democrats are largely falling in line behind Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), a strong challenger with backing from former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the dean of Nevada Democrats. Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is still weighing a bid, but Democrats’ near-uniform support for Rosen could squeeze Titus out of the race and give the party more time to focus on Heller.
2. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
McCaskill is one of the few statewide Democratic officeholders left in Missouri, which Trump won by 19 points in November.
The two-term senator spent 2016 as one of Hillary Clinton’s top surrogates, mounting a strong defense of the Democratic presidential nominee that McCaskill’s rivals believe will become a weakness in her own campaign.
McCaskill’s party also just lost Missouri’s 2016 Senate race, despite a strong campaign from Democrat Jason Kander.
3. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Donnelly leveraged a bipartisan approach to politics and his blue-collar appeal into a Senate seat in 2012, but he’ll have to fight yet another tough battle if he wants to keep his Senate seat in a state Trump won by 19 points.
4. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.)
Flake wouldn’t rank this high in a normal election year, but a Republican president threatening to support a primary challenge to an incumbent GOP senator isn’t normal, either.
The Arizona senator’s path to reelection has grown more difficult as his feud with Trump heats up. Earlier in August, Trump called Flake “toxic” in a tweet where he applauded Kelli Ward, Flake’s primary opponent. And the president’s upcoming Tuesday rally in Arizona could give him a stage to take more shots at Flake or even officially endorse a primary opponent.
5. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
In 2016, West Virginia went for Trump by a larger margin than any other state — 42 points.
That resounding victory hasn’t been lost on Manchin, who’s made it a point to try to work with the president and Senate GOP colleagues. Another factor counting in his favor: Manchin’s consistent record of winning statewide office in the West Virginia since 2001, despite the state’s rightward drift.
But Trump’s popularity in West Virginia has drawn interest from strong Republican candidates, and the winner will pose a serious threat to Manchin’s political future. And Democrats can’t be encouraged by Gov. Jim Justice’s decision to ditch them and become a Republican last month, a decision he announced with Trump at his side.
6. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.)
Heitkamp hails from another deep-red state — North Dakota went for Trump by about 36 points.
Like Manchin, Heitkamp has walked the line between the party’s opposition to Trump and his popularity among her constituents — briefly floated as a potential Agriculture Secretary, Heitkamp, like Manchin, voted for more than two-thirds of Trump’s Cabinet appointments.
7. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)
Republicans have a lot to like about their Montana prospects. Trump won the state by more than 20 points in November, and Republican Greg Gianforte just won the state’s at-large congressional seat in a special election — even after he assaulted a reporter.
Tester has never hit 50 percent in either of his two Senate bids, winning each election with 49 percent after a libertarian candidate siphoned off part of the vote.
Democrats Feeling the Pressure of the 2018 Miidterm Elections … Sen. Manchin (D-WV) is One of Three Senate Democrats who Didn’t Sign Party Line Letter on Tax Reform
25 DEMOCRAT & INDEPENDENT SENATORS WHO CAUCUS WITH THE DEMOCRAT PARTY ARE UP FOR REELECTION IN 2018, MANY IN STATES WON BIG BY TRUMP ARE FEELING THE PRESSURE, …
Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN) are among three U.S. Senators who did not sign the Democrat party line letter on tax reform. Although, Manchin hedged his bets and said he supported the fiscal ideas. Even though Manchin claimed his decision had nothing to do with politics or reelection, it had everything to do with it. What do these three Democrat Senators all have in common? They all are up for reelection in 2018 in “red” states that Donald Trump won big in 2016. Trump won West Virginia 68.6% to 26.5%, North Dakota 64.1% to 27.7% and Indiana 57.2% to 37.9%. So do you think Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly are not feeling the pressure to break from the Democrat party line? If they continue along the path of the far-LEFT leadership of their party, all will lose in 2018. Long gone are the days of the Blue Dog Democrats, this party is bordering on socialism these days.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is one of three Senate Democrats who didn’t sign a letter establishing the party line on tax reform, though he said Tuesday he agrees with all its components.
Manchin, who is up for re-election in 2018, said even though he supports the Democrats’ fiscal ideas, he won’t sign on without efforts to bring Republicans on board. He also said the election is not influencing his decision-making.
“The bottom line is, if it doesn’t help West Virginia, it doesn’t make sense to me, and just because there’s an election doesn’t mean I sign on or don’t sign on,” he said. “If you look at all the time I’ve been here, there’s stuff I don’t sign on to. I just don’t think it’s a good way to do business when you don’t try to get people from the front end.”
Sens. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., and Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., didn’t sign either. All three Democrats are up for re-election in states whose electorates voted for President Donald Trump by wide margins.
The letter was sent to Trump, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and GOP Senate Finance Committee Chair Orrin Hatch. It outlines three main policy points: tax reform should neither increase the burden on the middle class nor lessen it on high-wage earners; it should go through regular Senate procedure, not a fast-tracked process like budget reconciliation; and it should not increase the federal deficit or cut programs like Medicaid.
When confronted by about his unwillingness to tote the party line Manchin replied with, “I don’t give a sh*t …” The reality is, Manchin, like the governor of West Virginia should probably think about changing parties. Or, the voters of WV need to vote him out of office as the Democrat party power-base does not. West Virginia has become a dark red state, so why would they think a Democrat Senator would serve them?
Because in the end, who is is his ear?
“I don’t give a s–t, you understand? I just don’t give a s–t,” he said. “Don’t care if I get elected, don’t care if I get defeated, how about that. If they think because I’m up for election, that I can be wrangled into voting for s–t that I don’t like and can’t explain, they’re all crazy.”
“I’m not scared of an election, let’s put it that way. Elections do not bother me or scare me. I’m going to continue to do the same thing I’ve always done, extremely independent.”
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) Says on CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ …Obama’s Personality Makes It More Difficult For Senators To Work With Him
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) stated this Sunday morning on CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ that Barack Obama’s personality makes it more difficult for Senators to work with him. Folks, this is coming from a Democrat Senator can you imagine how the GOP ones feel? Hmm, hasn’t it been the MSM and Democrats saying that the GOP has been inflexible and its those conservatives’ fault? You have a Democrat Senator saying that it is Obama’s personality, one might say driven by a one-way ideology, that is to blame for Senators to work with him.
The President’s failure to build friendships with lawmakers has damaged his chances of finding bipartisan support for legislation, a senator from his own party said Sunday.
“It’s just hard to say no to a friend,” Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“When you build that relationship and that friendship, you’re looking for ways to try to work things out and find a compromise and, you know, that friendship means an awful lot. When you don’t build those personal relationships, it’s pretty easy for a person to say, well, let me talk about it, you know, and not really make, you know, that extra effort.”
“You know, we all have different styles,” Manchin said. It’s “just not in the president’s nature to pal around,” the conservative Democrat said, adding that Obama doesn’t have a gregarious personality like former President Bill Clinton.
With the partisan gridlock and many senators up for re-election, Manchin, who has called for congressional action on tighter gun laws, said it’s going to be challenging to get such legislation passed next year, though he remains hopeful.
Full VIDEO can be seen HERE.
60% of voters believe that the implementation of Obamacare is a joke … JUST 60%?
A Fox News poll shows that 60% of voters think that the Obamacare implementation is a joke, while 30% actually believe it is going fine. Seriously, even if you like the law Democrats, there is no way that one can say that the implementation is going fine. Many believe, including former Obama White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs that some one should be fired for the disastrous implementation. That is hardly going fine. However, it is not just the implementation of Obamacare that is a joke, as Americans learn more and more about Barack Obama’s signature piece of legislation that was passed on a partisan Democrat vote by only Democrats in the House and the Senate, they will come to realize that the joke is on them.
Six voters in ten describe implementation of ObamaCare as “a joke,” and more voters than not say problems with the government’s health insurance website are so bad someone should be fired, according to a Fox News national poll.
The new poll, released Wednesday, also finds a majority continues to dislike President Obama’s signature achievement: 51 percent of voters use negative terms to describe the health care law, saying it is either “a step backward” or “disastrous.” That’s down two percentage points from 53 percent in August. On the other side, 44 percent describe ObamaCare positively, either as “wonderful” or “progress.” It was 43 percent two months ago.
Most Democrats continue to describe the health care law positively: 12 percent “wonderful” and 62 percent “progress,” while most Republicans continue to call it “a step backward” (20 percent) or “disastrous” (66 percent).
Other poll results:
- Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? 53% disapprove – 41% approve
- Do you favor or oppose establishing limits on the number of terms members of the U.S. Congress can serve, including your own senators and representative? 77% Favor – 18% Oppose
- And which of the following do you think best describes how Obamacare is being carried out and implemented? 60% a joke – 31% Its going fine
UPDATE I: As Americans voice their displeasure with Obamacare disastrous rollout, many Democrats like Sens. Joe Manchin and Jeanne Shaheen are jumping ship and looking for political cover. They will not be the only ones.