George Will Predicts Romney Landslide 321-217 on ABC’s ‘This Week” … Similar to Barone’s Landslide Prediction
Most pundits are calling the 2012 Presidential race too close to call as the RCP averages of polls have it a dead tie.
However, that did not stop conservative columnist on ABC’s “This Week’ to predict a Mitt Romney electoral landslide. Will predicted a 321-217 electoral victory for Romney. What I do find interesting is that a couple of people have gone out on a limb and said that Romney will get over 300 electoral votes; however, no one is really saying that Obama will do such. What we are seeing from Will and Barone is that if the undecided’s break for the challenger Mitt Romney, battleground states could fall like dominoes for Romney.
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”
Add Will’s landslide prediction to that of numbers cruncher extraordinaire Michael Barone. His prediction of a landslide is based
on fundamentals, a majority of Americans are against Obama’s policies. and a sluggish economy where job growth and recovery has been far too slow. Barone is predicting a Romney 315, Obama 223 landslide. Barone stated that it sounds high for Romney, but he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 ). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
It Looks Like Its Over in Florida, Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 Poll Along I-4 Corridor Has Romney Ahead Obama 51% to 45% Among Likely Voters
It appears the fat lady may be singing in Florida …
According to a recent poll in the battleground state of Florida, the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the I-4 corridor finds Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 51% to 45%. According to RCP, Romney is up by 1.8% and all polls have him leading. Doug Ross remind us that Suffolk had stopped polling in Florida. It does seem that the Romney camp can count FLA in the win category.
It has been a fundamental rule of Florida politics for decades: Statewide campaigns are won and lost on the I-4 corridor.
Today that celebrated swing-voter swath stretching from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach is poised to deliver Florida’s 29 electoral votes to Mitt Romney.
An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
“Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. “Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.”
Just the other day Romney drew massive crowds in Pensacola.
Is Barack Obama giving up and reading the Romney handwriting on the wall in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado? As stated at Hot Air, one has to look way down in the article to find this gem of info that is the most significant part of the entire piece.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
As Hot Air stated, is Team Obama doing electoral triage? Has Romney’s surge in so many battleground states and in states that were supposed to be lean Obama that it is stretching Obama’s resources? Is Obama’s vulnerability in so many states coming back to haunt him? It would appear that Obama may be redrawing his fire line.
It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.
Barack Obama Widens Lead Over Romney in Swing States Ohio, Florida & PA with a Skewed Sampling of D+9 and Greater (Update: Polls Questioned as Bunk)
All Polls are not created equal … some are just skewed numbers meant to fit the liberal MSM and Democrat narrative …
Yet another example of the fraud that the MSM is trying to perpetrate on the Americans people to try depress the GOP vote turnout by claiming the swing state races are over. The fraud this time is courtesy of the New York Times and Qunnipiac. It has become obvious that polls can no longer be taken at face value or believed unless one takes the time t dig down to the data sampling. However, the liberal, corrupt media complex is hoping, they are praying that a lazy America does not. As Macsmind says. knock it of NYT, the GOP is coming out to vote in 2012.
For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral votes.
Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency.
The polls, along with interviews with supporters and advisers in the nation’s two largest battleground states, lay bare an increasingly urgent challenge facing Mr. Romney as he prepares for his next chance to move the race in his favor, at the first debate with Mr. Obama next week. Mr. Romney’s burden is no longer to win over undecided voters, but also to woo back the voters who seem to be growing a little comfortable with the idea of a second term for Mr. Obama.
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.
The surveys, which had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate, also included a Pennsylvania poll, where Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by 12 percentage points.
HOG WASH … However, a funny, no a hideous and blatantly fraud happened on the way to the 2012 elections in the polling. The in the tank for Obama media has been skewing the polling sampling so bad for Obama that of course they are going to show that the Obamamessiah is leading. The latest skewed sampling by the NY Times/Qunnipiac has lead to a poll that shows Obama allegedly is up 10 in Ohio, 9 in Florida and 12 in Pennsylvania? If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t look now but the NY Times/Qunnipiac used a +D9 sample in Florida, a +9D sampling in Ohio and a +11 sample in Pennsylvania. WOW, that is a greater sampling than the 2008 once in a life-time, anomaly election of the first black President Obama. Who honestly believes that the turnout is going to be anything like 2008? However, this poll thinks even more D’s are going to turn out.
It looks like this fact was not lost either over at Jammie Wearing Fool … “So Obama is up 9 in Florida with a D+9 sample, up 10 in Ohio with a D+9 sample and up 12 in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample” What a coincidence, eh? Is it a close race, yes. Does Romney have a lot of work to do between now and election day, yes. However, to purposely present an obvious skewed poll as if it was fact and then have the liberal MSM run with it as news is nothing more than Obama propaganda.
Such a poll is not even worth adding to the RCP average of polling as it is so badly skewed, even when averaging it with other polls it brings up the polling number for Obama. Shameful, simply shameful.
UPDATE I: From NewsBusters, Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew. Gee, YA THINK? In order for this poll to be considered valid, Democrats would have to come out in record numbers even greater than 2008. Sorry, I have to break the orgasmic MSM’s bubble, but that ain’t happening.
Despite not believing that Democrats would have a 9-point advantage, Brown defended his organization, claiming that he and his colleagues were not intentionally trying to skew their sample size:
“We didn’t set out to oversample Democrats,” he protested. “We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen.”
But what if that screen is simply not enough? The 2012 presidential election is unlikely to have an electorate which is similar to the ones before it. In the 2008 election, young and black voters turned out in record numbers and voted in even higher percentages for Obama. As specific surveys of these two voter groups have shown, however, both are dispirited this time around and are less likely to turn out for Democrats.
US National Hurricane Center Issues Hurricane Warnings From Louisiana to Florida Panhandle.
Click HERE for current satellite loop.
Tropical Storm ISAAC Public Advisory
Tropical Storm Isaac about to become a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico. As reported at ABC News, Isaac is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday, on the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. However, Isaac does not appear to be as powerful as the devastating Katrina that reeked havoc on New Orleans, Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. Isaac has made the planner of the Republican National Convention cancel the first day of the event on Monday.
Tropical Storm Isaac barely stirred some Florida Keys residents from their fabled nonchalance Sunday, while the Gulf Coast braced for the possibility that the sprawling storm will strengthen into a dangerous hurricane by the time it makes landfall there.
Isaac was expected to cross the Keys by late afternoon, then turn northwest and strike as a Category 2 hurricane somewhere between the New Orleans area to the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
The storm was predicted to pass west of Tampa, the site of the Republican National Convention, but it had already disrupted the schedule there because of the likelihood of heavy rain and strong winds.
Even before reaching hurricane strength, Isaac caused considerable inconvenience, with hundreds of flights canceled at airports in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There were scattered power outages from Key West to Fort Lauderdale affecting more than 6,000 customers, and flooding occurred in low-lying areas.
Florida Governor Scott Brown says that Florida is preparing for Isaac. The Florida Keys are going to be hot with tropical force wind and rain. Brown stated that he has canceled his plans to attend the Republican National Convention on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday to deal with issues for the state of Florida and the potential for Isaac to turn into a hurricane.
Former GOP Turncoat & Political Opportunist Florida Gov. Charlie Crist Backs Barack Obama … Good, He Just proved His True Political Beliefs
Ode to a career politician …
When I first read this news story it reminded me of the NFL draft and the last player selected, otherwise know as Mr. Irrelevant. Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist is the Sunshine’s state’s version of Mr. Irrelevant.
The former Republican, turned Independent, turned maybe I will run as a Democrat says he is going to backing Barack Obama in the 2012 Presidential election. This is sure to be a game changer and move the needle. NOT! Maybe this political opportunist can parlay this endorsement into a speaking role at the Democrat National Convention. Wasn’t this the same guy who pulled out of the Florida GOP primaries because he was getting trounced by Republican superstar Marco Rubio?He then ran as a so-called Independent and lost again badly to Rubio in Florida. On ABC ‘This Week’, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell dismissed former Florida GOP Governor Charlie Crist’s endorsement of Obama calling it just one more vote for the president in the Sunshine State.
Doesn’t this dude ever learn, it was his embracing of Obama in 2008 that got lost his job
On the cusp of the Republican National Convention that he helped bring to his home of Tampa Bay, former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist goes all in for Democrat Barack Obama in a Tampa Bay Times editorial.
It’s looks like yet another indication that Crist, an independent, plans on becoming a Democrat and running for governor. The next sign: Whether he gets a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C.
In some ways, Obama owes Crist, who literally and figuratively embraced the president’s stimulus plan in 2009 in Fort Myers when the rest of the Republican party was busy trashing it. Aside from being a political opportunist (Obama was popular at the time), Crist was being honest. He knew the Republican Legislature would have to take the money and that the state needed it to prevent deep budget cuts and state-worker layoffs. Every governor knew it. That’s why they all took nearly all of the stimulus money.
Does anyone remember just a couple of years ago when Crist said Obama would lose reelection like Jimmy Carter?
Video Hat Tip: The Gateway Pundit
Good grief, here is some of Crist’s OPED. Crist praised Obama’s vision built on a strong middle class, work and personal responsibility. Are you sure he was not referencing Mitt Romney? Obama’s vision and rhetoric has been one of class warfare and division of the races. Obama’s policies and liberal agenda have slowed the US economic recovery, not helped it. When Obama was first elected he was more concerned with passing Obamacare rather that aid jobs growth. His $787 billion stimulus to keep unemployment at 7% was a failure.
I’ve studied, admired and gotten to know a lot of leaders in my life. Across Florida, in Washington and around the country, I’ve watched the failure of those who favor extreme rhetoric over sensible compromise, and I’ve seen how those who never lose sight of solutions sow the greatest successes.
As America prepares to pick our president for the next four years — and as Florida prepares once again to play a decisive role — I’m confident that President Barack Obama is the right leader for our state and the nation. I applaud and share his vision of a future built by a strong and confident middle class in an economy that gives us the opportunity to reap prosperity through hard work and personal responsibility. It is a vision of the future proven right by our history.
What a shock that a political opportunist like Crist it is rather peculiar that he would tout Obama’s success when most Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Also, even this sample skewed poll that over sampled Democrats shows that Obama has a negative approval rating in Florida and Floridians favor Romney over Obama when it comes to the Sunshine’s state number one issue, the economy.
Obamanomics & Job Recovery … Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July Including 9 Battleground States
Just more evidence that the Obama jobs recovery and Obamanomics has been an epic failure.
Not only did the national US unemployment rise from 8.2% to 8.3% in July, but also the unemployment rates rose in 44 US states. That includes the increase in the unemployment rates in 9 battleground states like Nevada, that saw the rate rise to 12% in July from 11.6% and in Michigan, where the rate increased to 9% from 8.5%. Other battleground states that saw increases in the unemployment rates were Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, the most states to show a monthly increase in more than three years and a reflection of weak hiring nationwide.
The Labor Department said Friday that unemployment rates fell in only two states and were unchanged in four.
Unemployment rates rose in nine states that are considered battlegrounds in the presidential election. That trend, if it continued, could pose a threat to President Barack Obama’s re-election bid in less than three months.
Nationwide, hiring improved in July after three months of tepid job gains. But the national unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent. Monthly job gains have averaged 150,000 this year. That’s barely enough to accommodate population growth. As a result, the unemployment rate is the same as when the year began.
What is Obama’s answer, more stimulus money for infrastructure projects. Obama code for giving jobs to union workers. Even though Obama said in the past when his previous stimulus plan was a failure, there were no shovel ready jobs then or now. At best these are temporary jobs, not permanent.
More bad news for Obama and Democrats, Americans prefer the GOP to Democrats in trusting them to fix the economy.
Brian in a Blue State
Federal Judge Rejects Obama Admin & Holder’s DOJ Request to Stop Florida’s Non-Citizen Voter Purge to Stop Voter Fraud
Wow, didn’t U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle get the Obama memo of Team Reelect Obama as to how they planned to win Florida? Another blow to President Barack Obama and Attorney Eric Holder.
Finally some common sense in the ruling of whether the state of Florida should stop the purge their voter rolls of non-citizens. U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle rejected the DOJ’s restraining order. Judge Hinkle stated that the 90 day provision of purging voter rolls pertained to citizens, not non-citizens. What a novel concept, non-US citizens are not allowed to vote. What is Obama to do now? Talk about your bad weeks, it is going to be a toss up as to who might be having a worse week, President Barack Obama or Attorney General Eric Holder.
A federal judge rejected a request from the Obama administration to put an immediate stop to the state’s non-citizen voter purge program.
The Justice Department had asked for a restraining order, arguing that the program attempting to remove 2,600 non-citizens from the voter rolls violated federal voting law that prohibits the systemic removal of voters 90 days before an election.
U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle said that, according to his reading of the law, the 90-day provision did not apply to removing non-citizens from the rolls. But, he also chastised the state, saying there were “some problems” with the way that the program had been carried out.
“Determining citizenship is not as easy as the state would have it,” Hinkle said in a ruling from the bench made about a half hour after arguments concluded. “Questioning someone’s citizenship isn’t as trivial as the state would have it.”
The presumptive Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney surges in Florida over Barack Obama.
According to the most recent Quinnipiac poll, Romney is up 6% over Obama and leads the incumbent President in the Sunshine state 47% to 41%. This is quite a statement for Romney, taking the lead in the key battleground state of Florida. What seems to be driving the poll is the 45 approve – 55% disapprove of Obama job approval and the 58% yes – 30% no likability of Romney.
Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 47 – 41 percent lead over President Barack Obama in Florida, where 63 percent of voters say the president’s support of same-sex marriage will not affect their vote, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 25 – 11 percent of voters, including 23 – 9 percent among independent voters, say Obama’s support of gay marriage makes them less likely to support his candidacy.
Adding Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to the GOP ticket would give the Republican Romney/Rubio team a 49 – 41 percent lead over President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
Romney’s lead in the horse race compares to a 44 – 43 percent tie in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 49 – 42 percent Obama lead March 28.
Florida is a truly representative swing state and could spell political reelection doom for Obama and what the landscape will look like in the rest of the battleground states up for grabs in the 2012 Presidential election.
- Outrage over an American flag with an image of Obama in place of the stars, flying at the Lake County Florida Democratic headquarters
Daily Commmentary – Friday, March 16, 2012 Download