2012 Iowa Republican Caucus: Its a Three Way Race Between Romney, Santorum and Paul (Update: Ron Paul Finishes Third)

The 2012 Iowa Caucus as been a nip and tuck, too close to call horse race all night long. Its been back and forth between the three lead horses, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. What will come of this, is Iowa really going to make Ron Paul the winner? Really?

See real time poll results at Fox News.

Presently with 87% of the vote in at 9:50 PM CST … Santorum 25%, Romney 25% and Paul 22%. It is rather interesting that Paul’s negative and nasty ads may have cost him voted in the waning moments leading into today’s caucus vote. Paul may have savaged Gingrich; however, he might have done harm to himself as well.

Continued updates can be found at The Other McCain … Santorum having a hell of a showing tonight, Beating even surge projections. Talk about peaking just at the right time. Will Santorum be able to sustain the momentum and the slings and arrows that will follow not that he is a top tier candidate?

UPDATE I: Fox News predicts that Ron Paul finishes third. WOW, what happened to all the Paulies in Iowa? Third? Sorry folks but this is a major failure and set back for the Paul campaign.

UPDATE II: So far predicted finishes … 3rd Ron Paul, 4th Newt Gingrich, 5th Perry, 6th Michele Bachmann and 7th Huntsman. It is still up in the air as to who is #1 and #2, Romney or Santorum.

UPDATE III: At 10:44  PM CST with 95% of votes counted: Santorum 29,017 – Romney 28,908

UPDATE IV: 11:23 PM CST – Romney 29,625 – Santorum 25,584

Americans see President Obama as the Farthest Candidate from Them Ideologically Including All Republicans

Barack Obama … the most out of touch candidate for American ideology …

According to a recent Gallup poll should cause yet more concern for President Barack Obama for the 2012 elections. Americans see Obama as the farthest candidate from them ideologically than any of the GOP primary candidates. Should this really come as a surprise as Barack Obama is the most liberal and polarizing President ever elected. Although many Americans are not not sure of some of the Republican candidates, they have had three years to figure out exactly what Obama’s ideology is. 57% consider Obama vet liberal/liberal, while 15% polled were smoking crack stating that Obama was very conservative/conservative. If Obama has not yet convinced America that he is not “very liberal” at this point, it is a lost cause. America knows exactly what Barack Obama is and stands for, there is no fooling the public like 2008.

What should further trouble Obama is that Independents consider Obama the farthest away from their ideology as well.  As for Republicans, enough said. However, just how out of touch are Democrats with the main stream of society? They think Barack Obama is spot on with their ideology.

This is coupled with other polling data showing Obama loses a hypothetical match up with Mitt Romney 45% to 39%.

UPDATE I: Barack Obama’s job approval rating back down to 41% approval – 50% disapproval as per Gallup!

Rick Perry Leads in Iowa: Perry 29%, Bachmann 18%, Romney 17%, Paul 14%

Texas Governor Rick Perry is in the cat birds seat when it comes to polling in the first three GOP primary states. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Perry leads in Iowa 29% with a double digit lead over US rep. Michele Bachmann (18%),  former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (17%) and Ron Paul (14%).  If Perry wins Iowa, he will take 2 of the 3 first primary states.

Confirming a surge seen in polling across the nation, Texas Governor Rick Perry has moved into first place among Republican voters in Iowa, host state to the first-in-the-nation caucus early next year.

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of those likely to participate in the Iowa GOP Caucus shows that Perry is the first choice for 29%. Essentially tied for second are Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann at 18% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 17%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 14% of the vote, and nobody else currently reaches the five percent (5%) mark. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Nationally, Rick perry has a near double digit lead over his GOP Presidential primary challengers; however, in the primaries its all about how candidates do in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. Obviously, Romney leads in NH, he better. If you are the former governor of a sister New England state, if Romney do not win NH, he is finished. However, what if Perry comes in second in the Granite state primaries, wins Iowa as he leads in to the above poll and runs away with the South Carolina primary …  Perry is in a great spot at this point. Let’s see how he does in this weeks GOP Presidential Primary debate.

Only 37% Job Approval in Florida and Think President Barack Obama Deserves Reelection in 2012

In the 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama won Florida 51% to 48% and picked up an important  27 electoral votes. That was then, this is now. If early polling in Florida is any sign of things to come for 2012, Obama and the Democrat party are in serious trouble in this swing state.

Yes, it is early in the polling season and things could change; however, President Barack Obama finds himself in a deep hole in the battle ground state of Florida.   A recent MAGELLAN poll has only 37% believe that Barack Obama should be reelected, while a whopping 57% believe he should not be. The poll also has Floridians at 37% job approval for Obama, while 57% disapprove. How does one come back from a 37% reelection number?  Its early, but this polling is so dismal, one has to take notice especially when the polling sample was 42/39/19, Democrats/Republicans/Independents.

Do you think that Barack Obama deserves to be re?elected, or do you think that
Barack Obama does not deserve to be re?elected?
Deserves to be re?elected ……………………………………………… 37%
Does not deserve to be re?elected ……………………………….. 57%
Undecided/No opinion …………………………………………………….. 6%

Read more

Texas Governor Rick Perry Surges into the Lead in Latest Gallup Poll

Texas Governor Rick Perry to the head of the pack …

The latest Gallup poll has Texas Governor Rick Perry surging into the lead in the GOP race for the Republican nomination for president with 29%. Similar to last weeks Rasmussen poll, Rick Perry has a double digit lead in Gallup, far outpacing Mitt Romney 17%, Ron Paul at 13% and Michele Bachmann at 10%.  The American Spectator has some nice geographic analysis.

Perry crushes Romney in the South 39 percent to 12 percent while trailing the former Massachusetts governor by just one point in the East. Perry has also taken a toll on Bachmann, who does no better than tying Paul in any region of the country and trails all three of them in the Midwest, even though that’s where she does best. Perry also beats Romney 33 percent to 16 percent among conservatives, while Romney has a single-digit lead among moderate to liberal Republicans.

Perry seems to have traction in the polling since he entered the GOP race on August 13. Quite interesting how well the Texan polled in the East against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Interesting indeed, don’t mess with Texas.

Brian in a Blue State

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