Gallup poll are reporting that the “Republican Advantage in 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks.” Really? Some times the best substitute for a poll is an election. Before some start to panic, they might want to look at real numbers vs. poll numbers. What say you Gallup?
Republican registered voters’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterm elections has declined significantly in recent weeks. As a result, Republicans’ advantage over Democrats on this measure has shrunk from 19 points in early April to 10 points in the latest weekly aggregate.
So many on the LEFT have been quick to discount and criticize Scott Rasmussen mainly because his polling shows that Democrats are going to lose big in November 2010 and most all of President Obama’s policies are opposed by a majority of Americans. However, the same LEFT may want to question Gallup’s polling. Rasmussen presently has Republicans ahead of Democrats in the Generic Congressional ballot 44% to 37%.
Gallup states that if the elections were hypothetically held today the voting preference would be a 45% tie. Gallup states that Republican voting enthusiasm is slipping. REALLY?
For the second consecutive week, registered voters remain evenly divided in their current vote preferences between the Republican and Democratic candidates in their congressional districts on Gallup’s “generic ballot.” Republicans had enjoyed a slight edge for most of the period after the passage of healthcare reform in late March until mid- to late April, but had trailed prior to that.
If registered voter preferences remain evenly divided, turnout will ultimately decide which party has a better night on Election Day. Historically, Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, which means a tie among registered voters is generally more indicative of a stronger Republican than Democratic showing on Election Day.
As long as Republicans maintain an advantage in voting enthusiasm, it would appear unlikely that Democrats would be poised to upset this typical pattern on Election Day. As the campaign continues, two indications in Gallup’s data of a possibly strong Democratic showing would be a continued closing of the enthusiasm gap versus Republicans, and the Democrats’ moving ahead of Republicans in registered-voter preferences on the generic ballot.
Why would we need a hypothetical Gallup poll to show as a hypothetical outcome when we have the real thing to witness and draw conclusions from? As stated as Sister Toldaja, there were three primaries held in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio … the numbers do not lie! Democrat turn out in all three primaries was well below Republican.
Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.
In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.
Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in ’06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced serious primary opponents.
Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters — or 18% of all registered Dem voters — who turned out in ’04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.
And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in ’02 and the 304K who turned out in ’06.
By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr’s uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in ’04. Turnout in House races in IN rose 14.6% from ’06, fueled by the competitive Senate primary, which attracted 550K voters. And 728K voters cast ballots for a GOP Sec/State nominee in Ohio, the highest-ranking statewide election with a primary; in ’06, just 444K voters cast ballots in that race.