Republican Voting Enthusiasm over Democrats Shrinks in 2010?

 

Gallup poll are reporting that the “Republican Advantage in 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks.” Really? Some times the best substitute for a poll is an election. Before some start to panic, they might want to look at real numbers vs. poll numbers.  What say you Gallup?

Republican registered voters’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s midterm elections has declined significantly in recent weeks. As a result, Republicans’ advantage over Democrats on this measure has shrunk from 19 points in early April to 10 points in the latest weekly aggregate.

So many on the LEFT have been quick to discount and criticize Scott Rasmussen mainly because his polling shows that Democrats are going to lose big in November 2010 and most all of President Obama’s policies are opposed by a majority of Americans. However, the same LEFT may want to question Gallup’s polling. Rasmussen presently has Republicans ahead of Democrats in the Generic Congressional ballot 44% to 37%.

Gallup states that if the elections were hypothetically held today the voting preference would be a 45% tie. Gallup states that Republican voting enthusiasm is slipping. REALLY?

For the second consecutive week, registered voters remain evenly divided in their current vote preferences between the Republican and Democratic candidates in their congressional districts on Gallup’s “generic ballot.” Republicans had enjoyed a slight edge for most of the period after the passage of healthcare reform in late March until mid- to late April, but had trailed prior to that.


If registered voter preferences remain evenly divided, turnout will ultimately decide which party has a better night on Election Day. Historically, Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats, which means a tie among registered voters is generally more indicative of a stronger Republican than Democratic showing on Election Day.

As long as Republicans maintain an advantage in voting enthusiasm, it would appear unlikely that Democrats would be poised to upset this typical pattern on Election Day. As the campaign continues, two indications in Gallup’s data of a possibly strong Democratic showing would be a continued closing of the enthusiasm gap versus Republicans, and the Democrats’ moving ahead of Republicans in registered-voter preferences on the generic ballot.

Why would we need a hypothetical Gallup poll to show as a hypothetical outcome when we have the real thing to witness and draw conclusions from? As stated as Sister Toldaja, there were three primaries held in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio … the numbers do not lie! Democrat turn out in all three primaries was well below Republican.

Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.

In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.

Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in ’06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced serious primary opponents.

Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters — or 18% of all registered Dem voters — who turned out in ’04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.

And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in ’02 and the 304K who turned out in ’06.

By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr’s uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in ’04. Turnout in House races in IN rose 14.6% from ’06, fueled by the competitive Senate primary, which attracted 550K voters. And 728K voters cast ballots for a GOP Sec/State nominee in Ohio, the highest-ranking statewide election with a primary; in ’06, just 444K voters cast ballots in that race.



If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Gallup Poll Shows Democrats Six Point Lead on Generic Ballot … It’s the Trending, Not the Snap Shot
  • Midterm Impending Democrat Doom … Republicans Jump to Historic Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot
  • PPP Shows Generic Ballot Tied … The Real Number is the Enthusiasm One, Advantage GOP
  • Hmm … Republicans Hold Lead in Colorado Early Voting Entering Election Day
  • Another Democrat Alka Seltzer Moment, Conservatives Most Enthusiastic About 2010 Midterm Vote




  • Comments

    10 Responses to “Republican Voting Enthusiasm over Democrats Shrinks in 2010?”

    1. Vladsalterego on May 6th, 2010 9:32 am

      Interesting that the Dems are gaining ground again. Maybe it’s because the Republicans are suckling at the teat of corrupt Wall Street bankers? Both parties are certainly guilty of this, but the Republicans are the slaves of the bankers. The only party pushing for real financial reform are the Democrats.

      The Republicans sure are good at getting the bigoted masses to follow them, though! The rest of us will vote our principles, thank you very much, because we want the melting pot that is the United States to succeed. If all the elderly, frightened bigots would just step aside, please.

    2. Vladsalterego on May 6th, 2010 9:37 am

      I love seeing you and others scramble while your temporary “lead” shrinks. Engage in all the denial you want, but the citizens will have their say!

      What would really be awesome is if you put a “Mission Accomplished” banner across the top of this website and took a victory lap now. I think, considering the context, it’s appropriate.

    3. Scared Monkeys on May 6th, 2010 10:08 am

      LOL, yup … you just keep believing that.

      Too bad you could not actually read the post. Maybe you actually saw the news where Democrats are in a panic over the poor turn out in the 3 primaries on Tuesday. Oh, but that is irrelevant in the eyes of a liberal.

      Why let the facts get in the way of good BS.

      As for Republicans and Wall Street … Maybe you also missed the $’s that Obama received from Goldman Sachs.

      Will Obama Give Back the $994,795 from Goldman Sachs or Keep $’s from Company He Sues Claiming Fraud?

      http://scaredmonkeys.com/2010/04/20/will-obama-give-back-the-994795-from-goldman-sachs-or-keep-s-from-company-he-sues-claiming-fraud/

      Who is on the take? Yea, there’s some hope and change to believe in.
      R

    4. Scared Monkeys on May 6th, 2010 10:10 am

      Oh wait look … for Democrat Hope & Change …

      Who knew Obama was BIG OIL!!!

      Obama biggest recipient of BP cash
      http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36783.html

      BP and its employees have given more than $3.5 million to federal candidates over the past 20 years, with the largest chunk of their money going to Obama, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Donations come from a mix of employees and the company’s political action committees — $2.89 million flowed to campaigns from BP-related PACs and about $638,000 came from individuals.

    5. Scott on May 6th, 2010 10:18 am

      Temporary lead shrinks? LOL #1 and #2…take a look at the races shaping up and Repubs are winning and gaining ground in all of them.

      The liberals are in a panic which is why they are pulling out the stops; race card, terror fears, saying Repubs are in with Wall Street when in fact; most of Obama’s financial team has serious Goldman ties; including Geitner who was the head of the NY Fed. You idiot liberals speak out of your a$$ without the FACTS. Geitner was in the middle of all of this; a tax cheat at that….

      HAHAHAHA…this poll did’t really bother to poll a lot of independents who have RUSHED to the Republican side or more yet; joined the Tea Partiers.

      SM – I’ll say it time and time again; use logic and common sense with dumb liberals and you win everytime.

    6. Vladsalterego on May 6th, 2010 10:19 am

      Enough of this whining! Republicans are simply losing ground.

      There’s enough Goldman Sachs blame to go around. But they’re finally trying to do something about it, which I applaud.

      FYI, a CBS News published in the last few days shows Obama’s approval rating at 51%: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20004035-503544.html?tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea. He’s gaining back some ground, and I think the trend will continue upward.
      __________
      SM: Who’s whining?
      That fact that LIBERALS can’t deal with facts is a fact.

      CBS poll, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH. Yea, there’s a poll I would bet the farm on.

      Its really easy, no whining no nothing. We shall see who is correct on November 3, 2010.

      I predict you shall be crying.
      R

    7. Vladsalterego on May 6th, 2010 10:23 am

      I thought you were a Republican, SM. Aren’t they the party who pushed for corporations to be able to spend like individuals on political campaigns? Aren’t Republicans the party who appointed the Supreme Court Justices who ruled that corporations could act as private American citizens? So I don’t really understand why you’re protesting so much about corporate donations. You’re out of step with your party. Perhaps someone should call Michael Steele.
      _______
      SM: You and Obama need to read the actual decision. When you become informed, get back to us.
      R

    8. Vladsalterego on May 6th, 2010 10:29 am

      I guess “free speech” on your site only applies when you feel you’re winning an argument.
      ____________
      SM: BTW, you post was deleted, don’t be such an a$$. If you want to be disrepectful and a wisea$$, you can easily be banned.

      Listen up TROLL, you could win an argument if you tried. In order to do so you have to have facts, not one poll. As it stands Republicans will pick up 7-8 seats in the US Senate. If two races turn in CA and WI which I would find hard to believe in those liberal states, the GOP could get 10. If the Republicans actually ran a ham sandwich in NY they could win as well; however, it seems there are none to be found.

      As for the House … a 40 seat victory is easily in sight.

      We shall see on November 2 eve.
      R

    9. Scott on May 6th, 2010 11:22 am

      Isn’t easy for a b*tch *** liberal to brush away the cold hard facts that Obama’s WH has more ties to Goldman than Bush did; received the most campaign money; near a $1M…

      Answer the question idiot; will he return the money? Why was the Goldman boss at the WH at least four times that they know of?

      Sure brush it away when it’s convienent for you liberal trolls!

      No it just wasn’t Republicans you uninformed nitwit. Like SM; do some factual research and get back to us; otherwise go pound sand with the rest of you idiot liberal friends. Maybe you can talk about fradualent global warming together…

      SM…trolls like this know nothing but what they read in liberal newspapers and the left MSM media; INCLUDING CBS.

      BTW….are you proud of Obama’s 51% poll number; still half of America thinks he’s a POS!

      Wait until all of this starts shaking out; 3 TERRORISTS ATTACKS on American soil on Obama’s watch in one year. Americans will remember that in Nov; as well as the STIMULUS which economic experts have agreed did squat (anybody see the DOW has dropped over 300 points in the past 3 days?) Obama touted the DOW the day it dropped over 300 in one day. Why isn’t he touting it now?
      They will remember the $1 T healthscare bill amongst all the other spending and freedoms he’s trying to take away from us.

      It’s not our fault you are irresponsible individual that needs Big Brother to hold your hand. You are a sheep like the rest of them. Keep following. When the water dries up you’ll die with the rest of them.

    10. Earl on May 6th, 2010 4:13 pm

      If its not a Rasmussen poll and it has any negative news about Republicans—-then it must be a liberal conspiracy right?Everyone knows Republicans are 100percent right on everything they do.
      ___________
      SM: Try not to be a troll clown your entire life. You might find that you are correct some of the time when you do. It does not take a brain surgoen to figure out when a poll is skewed or faulty.

      We use polls as windows into time and more importanlt for trending when there is an absence of actual data. Ya with me?

      The greatest poll of all is what Earl, any one, hmm, McFly?

      That would be an election. Kinda like the ones this past Tuesday referenced in the post that you appear to have been too challenged to read or comprehend.

      Are you going to actually say that 3 primary elections where Republicans turned out in greater mass are not a better indicator than a poll? Seriously?

      Try an pretend to make a valid point.

      As I have said to so many like you, before you … we shall see in November and who owes who an apology.
      R

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