Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley
DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley, then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.
If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.
The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.
Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.
• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.
• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.
• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.
• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.
• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP. Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.
Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!
In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.
Why? Let’s look at the map.
As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.
But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.
The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.
You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.
They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.
MSNBC’s Al Sharpton on Ottawa, Quebec Terrorist Shooting: “What’s The Latest In Iowa?” … Good Grief, Hey Al, Take Off, Eh!
Broadcast journalism at it;s finest … and MSNBC wonders why their TV ratings are in the crapper.
Stuck on Stupid … Watch below, as Al Sharpton completely embarrasses himself Wednesday night during reporting on the Ottawa, Canada terrorist shooting where he throws to the reporter on the ground … “What is the latest in Iowa?” Seriously Al, really? As Bob and Doug McKenzie would say, “Don’t listen to him, he’s a hoser”. Hmm, who knew that Iowa was the capital of Canada. Hey Al just, “Take off, eh!”.
The race-baiting MSNBC host, whose inflammatory rhetoric is matched by his ignorance of the world outside New York City and Washington, D.C., threw off CBC reporter Chloe Fedio Wednesday night during an interview on Sharpton’s “Politics Nation.”
“What’s the latest tonight in Iowa?” Sharpton asked, apparently unaware Fedio was actually in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.
Des Moines Register’s new poll numbers are making Democrat Senate candidate Bruce Braley squeal like a pig …
The Republican party needs a net pick up of six US Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections. It appears now that they may have many different ways to gain that number, including a pick up in Iowa. The latest Des Moines Register Iowa poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley 44% to 38%. How bad is it for the Democrats and Braley in Iowa, Braley is not even winning his home district. Also, 2/3 of likely voters believe it is a problem that he missed a large percentage of Veterans Affairs Committee meetings in the U.S. House and 59% think his role in crafting Obamacare is a problem. Braley is also polling poorly with rural voters as only 15% support him compared with 58% for Ernst.
First debate between Iowa U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst
The Democratic U.S. Senate candidate is 6 points behind his GOP rival, Joni Ernst, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll of likely voters.
Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents.
“Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP’s chances of taking the U.S. Senate,” said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball.”
Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.
Republicans need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections in order to wrestle control away from Harry Reid and Democrats.
The GOP need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in order to gain control of the US Senate. A recent NBC/Marist poll shows that although Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall is still leading in Colorado, Republicans are surging in the key “red” state races in Kentucky and Arkansas. US Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%. Although Kentucky is not a pickup for the GOP, some Democrats have thought that it could be a possible loss for the GOP. However, that does not appear to be the case. In reality, the GOP already is at a +3 as Republicans will pick up seats in the open Senate races formerly held by Democrats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.
Other Senate seats currently held by Democrats that are now in play include Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. My person opinion is that the GOP with have a net pick up of 7, possibly 8 Senate seats. If all things go right, it could be 9, but my gut feeling says this will not be a wave election like in 2010 because too many establishment Republicans are running and the establishment appears to have no clue that their conservative base is what wins elections. Not being Democrat light.
US Rep. Cotton (R-AR) calls Democrat Sen. Pryor a good Obama foot soldier, who was the deciding vote for Obamacare and who has voted with Obama 93% of the time.
Republican Senate candidates have opened up leads in the key states of Arkansas and Kentucky, putting them in a strong position to win back the U.S. Senate, according to new NBC News/Marist polls.
But another NBC/Marist poll shows Democrats holding on in the blue state of Colorado, suggesting a limit to the gains that Republicans could make in November.
In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.
In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.
And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.
State Senator Joni Ernst Wins GOP Iowa Primary Going Away … Faces Democrat Bruce Braley for Open Iowa Senate Seat
State Senator Joni Ernst wins Republican primary in Iowa, set to face Democrat Bruce Braley for US Senate race in pivotal battle in 2014 for the US Senate.
It did not take long last night after the polls closed in Iowa as the AP called the GOP US Senate primary for state senator Joni Ernst. With just 24% of precincts reporting, the AP made the call for Joni Ernst who had 53% of the vote, Conservative radio host Sam Clovis had 19%, businessman Mark Jacobs (R) had 17% and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker (R) had 9%. However, by the time all the votes were counted Ernst would win the Iowa Republican senate primary by an even wider margin gaining 56.2% of the vote. Ernst easily cleared the 35 percent threshold necessary to avoid a convention nomination fight. Republican Joni Ernst will face Democrat Bruce Braley this November for the Iowa senate seat currently held by the retiring Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin.
Joni Ernst, who highlighted her ability to shoot guns and castrate hogs to overcome disinterest in a sleepy primary election, tonight racked up enough votes to become the first female GOP U.S. Senate nominee in Iowa history.
The Associated Press called the race shortly before 10 p.m.
The 43-year-old farmer’s daughter turned state senator and military commander eclipsed the 35 percent necessary to claim victory over her four competitors, including retired businessman Mark Jacobs, who tried to overpower the rest of the field by self-funding his campaign with millions from his own wealth.
Vote for Jodi Ernst and let her trim the pork in Washington, DC … its a simple choice for Iowa voters.
Washington is full of big spenders, let’s make them squeal
“This campaign will come down to a very simple choice: our shared Iowa values, versus Bruce Braley’s liberal Washington values,” Ernst said.
According to the statement, Ernst, a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard who served a tour in Iraq, will start a statewide tour on Wednesday alongside Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds. She’s due to report for National Guard duty once that tour ends, the statement says without giving an exact time-frame.
George Will Predicts Romney Landslide 321-217 on ABC’s ‘This Week” … Similar to Barone’s Landslide Prediction
Most pundits are calling the 2012 Presidential race too close to call as the RCP averages of polls have it a dead tie.
However, that did not stop conservative columnist on ABC’s “This Week’ to predict a Mitt Romney electoral landslide. Will predicted a 321-217 electoral victory for Romney. What I do find interesting is that a couple of people have gone out on a limb and said that Romney will get over 300 electoral votes; however, no one is really saying that Obama will do such. What we are seeing from Will and Barone is that if the undecided’s break for the challenger Mitt Romney, battleground states could fall like dominoes for Romney.
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”
Add Will’s landslide prediction to that of numbers cruncher extraordinaire Michael Barone. His prediction of a landslide is based
on fundamentals, a majority of Americans are against Obama’s policies. and a sluggish economy where job growth and recovery has been far too slow. Barone is predicting a Romney 315, Obama 223 landslide. Barone stated that it sounds high for Romney, but he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 ). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Bad news for Barack Obama in Iowa and fantastic new for Mitt Romney … Des Moines Register endorses ROMNEY!!!
The Des Moines Register has changed their 2008 endorsement of Barack Obama to a 2012 endorsement of Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. For the first time in 40 years the Des Moines Register is backing a Republican over a Democrat. The Register cited the number one issue of the economy as their reason for the endorsement.
American voters are deeply divided about this race. The Register’s editorial board, as it should, had a vigorous debate over this endorsement. Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.
What did they think of Obama in the end, it’s the economy stupid. This should provide great insight to voters as to just how bad Obama has gummed up the economic job recovery. For the first time in 40 years the paper endorses a Republic over a Democrat for President. That should speal volumes to Iowans. The paper stated that they thought Obama’s efforts to fix the economy have fallen short and there was nothing to believe that the same would not continue to be the case if given another four years.
“The president’s best efforts to resuscitate the stumbling economy have fallen short. Nothing indicates it would change with a second term in the White House.”
Maybe the Des Moines Register’s final decision to not endorse Barack Obama came from Obama’s comment to them in what was supposed to originally be an off the record interview, that Obama had no regrets on prioritizing Obamacare over jobs in his first two years.
The president was also asked about his decision to spend his substantial political capital, and exploit his large Congressional majorities, to aggressively push his partisan health care law, rather than in pursuit of other economic priorities. Obama’s answer? “Absolutely” no regrets:
QUESTION: “Some say you had a super majority in your first two years and had this incredible opportunity, but because of what you were talking about, as you were running, you had to go to get Obamacare done. Do you have any regrets taking on some of the economic issues, some of the issues that we’re talking about for your second term, that when you had the chance, so to speak, during your first — do you have any regrets that you didn’t do that at that time?”
OBAMA: “Absolutely not, Laura.”
Will this endorsement shake up the presidential race in Iowa? RCP has the average of polling at +2.3% Obama; however, that is with a rather suspect +8 Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist poll. Rasmussen has it an even tie.
UPDATE I: As reported at NewsBusters, the libs are in disbelief and trying to trivialize the endorsement as a joke. Actually Libs, the only joke has been that who has been in the White House the past 4 years. Even more sadly, the sick joke has been one perpetrated on America, and its citizens are not laughing.
The battleground state of Iowa reminds Barack Obama … “Obama Welcome to SUX – We Did Build This”. Not since Democrat candidate for President John Kerry made the ill-fated comment, I voted for it, before I voted against it, has there been such a statement that has so fired up America. Obama’s “you did not build it,” commentwill be his undoing. Obama hit a nerve with small business owners whether they be white, black, Hispanic, Left, Right, Center, Democrat, Republican or Independent that “you did not own it, because you did not build it.
President Obama received a less than warm welcome and a warning upon arrival at the airport here on the second stop of his Iowa visit, which was aimed at recapturing some of the magic the state gave his run to the White House in 2008.
Greeting Air Force One as it touched down under sunny skies and sultry heat was a hand-painted banner draped across the top of an airplane hangar that reads, “Obama Welcome to SUX – We Did Build This.” “SUX” is the airport code for Sioux City.