INTERESTING SHAKE UP IN IOWA POLLS …
As reported at CBS News, Donald Trump has returned to the top spot in Iowa at 30%. Surprisingly, Conservative Sen. Ted Cruz (TX-R) has surged into second place with 21% and thanks to the racist and bias MSM, Ben Carson has slipped to third place with 19%. According to the polls, since last month, Ted Cruz has gained ground, while Ben Carson has lost ground, among some key voting groups in Iowa: evangelicals, Tea Party supporters, those who are very conservative and older voters. However, what is still trending is that all 3 candidates are considered non-establishment GOP political outsiders.
Make no mistake about it, the liberal MSM has performed a hit on Ben Carson as the Democrat media complex and Democratic party cannot afford to have Ben Carson as the GOP presidential candidate. It would forever destroy the Democrat talking point that the GOP is racist. Once again just showing the media bias that exists, because had the media gone after and questioned Barack Obama even 25% of how they have gone after Carson, Obama would never have been elected in 2008.
Donald Trump has returned to the lead in Iowa while Ted Cruz has now surged past Ben Carson into second place. Carson has slipped from a first-place tie into third.
While Iowa’s Republicans generally feel Trump is ready to be commander-in-chief, Cruz scores even better on this measure, boosted by support from very conservative and Tea Party Iowans who feel he is ready to assume the post. That’s more than say so about Trump, Carson, Rubio and Jeb Bush.
Since last month, Ted Cruz has gained ground — and Ben Carson has lost ground — among some key voting groups in Iowa: evangelicals, Tea Party supporters, those who are very conservative and older voters. And while Trump still leads among some of these groups, it’s Cruz who is ahead among the very conservative, and Trump leads Cruz by just two points among evangelical voters.
Cruz’s move has come directly at the expense of Carson, as nearly one-quarter of his voters switched.
With just a couple days ahead of the next Republican primary presidential debate, Ben Carson has surged into the lead in Iowa.
According to a recent Monmouth University poll, Ben Carson has taken a commanding 14 point lead over The Donald in Iowa. Carson is currently in first place at 32% followed by Trump at 18%. This is quite a turnaround from previous Monmouth polls. Carson is ahead among all demographic groups in Iowa, including Republicans who describe themselves as “somewhat” and “very conservative,” as well as self-described moderates, evangelicals, non-evangelicals, men and women. There appears to be a swing in Iowa as this is now the third poll showing Carson ahead in Iowa. Earlier, a Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll released last week showed Carson with a 9 point lead, and a Quinnipiac University survey found Carson ahead by 8.
Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, surging to a 14-point lead, according to a new poll.
A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent.
That’s a 9-point gain for Carson from the same poll in late August, while Trump has fallen five points in that time.
The poll found Carson with the best favorability rating in the field, with an astounding 84 percent of Iowa Republicans having a positive view of him, compared to only 7 percent who view him negatively.
Imagine, just imagine if Ben Carson won the GOP nomination and became president. Talk about the worst nightmare for Democrats, liberals and the MSM, how could they continue the myth and lie that Republicans are racist?
BUT I THOUGHT REPUBLICANS WERE RACIST?
According to the most recent Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Ben Carson has taken a commanding lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, 28% to 19%. The retired John Hopkins neurosurgeon and current GOP presidential candidate is surging in the polls in Iowa. According to the polling data, Evangelical Christians, who represent 42% of likely Republican caucus participants in the poll, appear to be aligning behind Carson. The political outsider, Carson’s rise in the polls has also been fueled by gains with Tea Party supporters. Huh, how can that be … we have been told by a lying, bias Democrat media complex that the Tea Party was racist. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the pants to the LEFT if it was the Tea Party and conservatives who Carson road to the White House?
Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a dominant position in Iowa, surpassing former front-runner Donald Trump as evangelical Christians begin to coalesce around him in the state that will cast the first 2016 nomination ballots.
A new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows the retired neurosurgeon is backed by 28 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, up 10 percentage points since late August. Trump is supported by 19 percent, down 4 points.
Those planning to caucus for Carson are drawn to his personal story and his status as a non-career politician, the poll shows, and they view him as someone who approaches issues with common sense and with guidance from his faith in God.
“His standing has improved in every way pollsters traditionally measure,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “This might be a wake-up for Donald Trump.”
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll: Donald Trump in the Lead at 23% While Ben Carson is Second at 18%
Republicans in Iowa want nothing to new with establishment political candidates …
According to the most recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, businessman Donald Trump leads the field with 23%, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is second at 18%. The two front-running GOP candidates couldn’t be farther apart in personality and demeanor. However, they have something very much in common that is causing them to be one, two in the Iowa polls. They both are not professional politicians. They are both DC outsiders and the voters are rewarding them for it. Followed by Ted Cruz at 8%, Scott Walker at 8%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Marco Rubio at 6%, Carly Fiorina at 5%, Mike Huckabee at 4% and Rand Paul at 4%. As stated at the Political Wire, what is much more interest when it comes to Trump is that he has completely reversed his favorable/unfavorable rating from May 2015 when he had a then, 27% had positive feelings about him and 63% negative. Now, it’s 61% positive, 35% negative.
Donald Trump has built up tremendous support in Iowa — he’s very wealthy, he loves the Bible and he’d be just terrific as president of the United States. And he’s very handsome.
That’s according to interviews with some likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa.
A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll finds that Trump, the flamboyant real estate entrepreneur, has 23 percent support here. But Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon, has been a submarine, quietly cruising into second with 18 percent, just 5 percentage points from the front-runner.
Carson has the highest favorability rating of the 17 Republican candidates, with 79 percent who view him positively. Only 8 percent have negative feelings about him.
The GOP voting electorate is pissed off at the Republican establishment just as much as they are with Democrats. Republicans and namely Conservatives are sick and tired of Republican do-nothing politicians. They are fed up with giving the GOP both the House and the Senate and then having the GOP establishment and those in power because of seniority treat the GOP voting electorate worse than Democrats. Most conservatives would never vote for Trump; however, the Republican party establishment has reached a breaking point where its time to teach them a lesson.
Candidates who are political outsiders don’t seem to be just a summer fling, as some analysts had predicted, but a budding long-term relationship five months out from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.
Combine Trump, Carson and Fiorina — three candidates who have never been elected to any public office — and their support accounts for 46 percent of the vote.
Part of what’s driving their ballot share is a “mad as hell” contingent. Forty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they’re mad as hell about the Internal Revenue Service; 48 percent about Democrats in Congress; 57 percent with President Barack Obama; and 58 percent with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
SOCIALIST BERNIE SANDERS IS NARROWING THE GAP …
Doesn’t this speak volumes of the Democrat party. According to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders has narrowed the gap on Hillary Clinton in polling for the Democratic presidential nominee, 37% to 30%. The Vermont Senator now only trails Hillary by 7. How is this possible? Just how damaged a candidate is Hillary Clinton, or has the Democrat party finally jumped the shark and truly has become nothing more than a Socialist party? And of course what does it say about the Democrat party in general when we have an open election for the next president of the United States and all the Donkeys can provide as candidates is a liar, a socialist, two unknowns that no one cares about and crazy VP who has not declared whether he is in or out.
Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.
She’s the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he’s the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.
But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest.
Donald Trump Still Leading in Polls Despite Fox News Reality Show Debate Hit Job, Leads in Iowa Poll
Imagine that establishment GOP and FOX News, The Donald still has commanding lead in the polls despite your best efforts … YOU FAILED!!!
Following the FOX News food fight Reality Show for ratings that was passed off as a debate and even after the feud with a prominent Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, the establishment, agenda driven media could not bring Donald Trump down. The huffed and they puffed but they could not blow the Trump house down. According to several new post debate polls, Donald Trump is the leader. In fact, Trump is surging in many of the polls as establishment candidates like Jeb Bush have taken nose dives. Note to establishment, the people are pissed and they are not going to take it any more. Many of us look at FOX News as the establishment, which is a crying shame as this network was at one time considered the hard charging outsider to the liberal media.
Three online polls and a telephone survey put Trump at the top of the Republican field after Thursday’s GOP presidential debate and his ensuing offensive against Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly.
Trump saw his popularity soar in a new Morning Consult survey, gaining 7 percentage points since a poll taken last week. This time around, he took 32 percent of the vote, while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush netted just 11 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, showed similar results, with Trump leading the way at 24 percent. Bush took a nose dive, going from 17 percent to 12 percent.
Trump also topped an NBC News poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, in which 23 percent of those polled said they’d vote for him. Sen. Ted Cruz came in second, with 13 percent.
Trump is ahead in a phone poll, too. An Iowa survey conducted by Public Policy Polling has Trump in the lead with 19 percent, followed by Ben Carson and Scott Walker with 12 percent each.
Donald Trump doesn’t appear to be suffering from his combative Cleveland debate performance, at least for now, and it may have helped him. The latest post-debate poll of Iowa Republican voters showed Trump was still enjoying a lead in the first caucus state.
Public Policy Polling, a liberal-leaning survey firm that uses automatic polling software and therefore is not likely to be used in determining future debate participants, found Trump placed first with 19 percent of the GOP support in Iowa. For those who watched the debate, he did even better: 21 percent of those who reported watching it live said they support Trump. Trump had a smaller lead among those who watched only news coverage with clips of the debate, and he was in first place with 15 percent but only holding that lead by a single percentage point. He also tied with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker among those who didn’t watch the debate at all.
Trump continues to struggle with high unfavorable marks. The PPP poll found a sharp divide, with 46 percent giving him favorable marks overall but 40 percent negative. The only candidate with higher unfavorable numbers was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with 44 percent.
Trump also did badly among women. Of those polled, 47 percent had an unfavorable position compared to 36 percent that had a favorable opinion of him. Men, however, were 55 percent favorable opinion and 34 percent unfavorable.
A note to FOX News and the rest of the establishment political pundits that are paid hacks, oh sorry, contributors, keep it up and Donald Trump will run as an Independent and the GOP will lose badly in 2016. I am no Trump supporter; however, this is to be kept as a fair fight for We the People to determine who the GOP nominee is or face the consequences. Because face it, this guy is rich and if screwed like most anti-establishment candidates get, he will fire back.
WMUR Poll: Hillalry Clinton Leads By Only 6% Over Socialist Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire … #FeeltheBern (VIDEO)
Are you kidding … self proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders is within the margin of error in the polls if New Hampshire.
Is Hillary Clinton beginning to #Feelthe Bern? According to the most recent WMUR Granite State Poll taken July 22-30, Clinton leads Sanders by only 6%, basically within the margin of error. How is this possible? The poll shows that as more voters get to know Sanders, the more popular he becomes. Currently, 69% view him favorably and 10 percent unfavorably, while 16 percent do not know enough about him to say. Is the Democrat party that much more socialist where the lines have now been blurred between the Democrat party and socialists, or is Hillary Clinton that bad a choice? There is no way that this should even be a race, and it is.
The WMUR Granite State Poll taken July 22-30 shows frontrunner Clinton with a 6 percentage point lead over the challenger from Vermont. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.9 percent, prompting the pollster to call the race a statistical tie.
The poll shows Clinton leading Sanders 42 percent to 36 percent, with 5 percent supporting Vice President Joe Biden, who has been the subject of speculation in recent days about the possibility of becoming a candidate. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia each receive 1 percent, with 3 percent favoring some other candidate and 12 percent undecided.
Hilllary Clinton buying $2 million in ad time in Iowa, N.H. ahead of GOP super PAC attacks and as polls show her support softening.
Hillary Clinton has been forced to buy ads in Iowa and New Hampshire where she sees her polling numbers fall to nobodies. Could you imagine if there was actually a viable candidate opposing Hillary in the Democrat primaries? For Democrats to look at a socialist like Sanders, it is almost like they would take anyone other than Hillary.
Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton will air her first television ads of the 2016 presidential contest this week, her campaign said Sunday, as the candidate seeks to convince voters that she is a tough crusader with a softer side.
The feel-good biographical ads will go on the air Tuesday in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The spots focus on Clinton’s life and family and do not mention Republicans.
A campaign official said the early August ad buy of about $1 million in each state is timed to get ahead of an expected onslaught of negative ads funded by pro-Republican super PACs. The campaign calculates that GOPcandidates and their super PACs have spent or reserved $34 million in airtime in the four early primary states.
But the new 60-second Clinton ads also come at a time when Clinton’s poll numbers have slipped in both states and when more voters say they do not find her trustworthy. Clinton’s weakening poll numbers have caused Democrats to express concerns privately about her effectiveness as a candidate.
Watch Bill O’Reilly Talking Points on Hillary Clinton … More bad new for Hillary
Quinnipiac University Poll: Hillary Clinton Trails Top Republicans (Bush, Rubio & Walker) in Battleground States of Iowa, Colorado & Virginia
WOW, DOES HILLARY CLINTON HAVE A REAL ISSUE IN A GENERAL ELECTION AGAINST THE GOP?
As reported at CNN, a recent Quinnipiac University poll of swing state shows the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton is trailing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in each of the states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. This is an amazing turn of events from the all but crowned Democrat 2016 presidential nominee. Hillary is doing terribly in these polls as to being honest and trust worthy. At least some people in America are finally paying attention as Hillary Clinton might be one of the most insincere, most un-trustworthy presidential candidates ever. Between her lack of answers and stonewalling on Benghazi as Secretary of State, her less than transparent private email account and private server she used to conduct business as Secretary of State and then destroying said emails and her over-all unwillingness to make herself available to the media and the people as a presidential candidate. Could the gig finally be up for Hillary? It’s not like one would think her poll numbers could get better? She has 100% name recognition, but her lack of honesty may just be her undoing. But as Hillary would say of her lack of transparency and honest, “what difference does it make”. Hopefully it will make a huge difference with the voters.
Hillary Clinton trails three top Republican presidential candidates in head-to-head matchups in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, a new survey shows.
The latest Quinnipiac University swing state polling released Wednesday shows the Democratic frontrunner trailing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in each of those states.
The biggest loser, the polls found, is Donald Trump, who has surged to the front of a crowded Republican primary field nationally but is viewed unfavorably, by almost a 2-to-1 margin, by voters in those states.
The results offered more indications that Clinton has a problem: Voters say they don’t trust her.
In Colorado, only 34% of voters said they see Clinton as honest and trustworthy while 62% said they don’t. In Iowa, the numbers were 33% to 59% — a drop from 45% to 47% in April. And in Virginia, Clinton did best, at 39% saying they trust her to 55% saying they don’t.
In Colorado, Clinton trails Rubio 38%-46%, Bush 36%-41% and Walker 38%-47%. In Iowa, she trails Rubio 36%-44%, Bush 36%-42% and Walker 37%-45%. And in Virginia, Clinton has the narrowest margins between her and her Republican opponents, where she lags behind Rubio 41%-43%, Bush 39%-42% and Walker 40%-43%.
If the people of the United States ever want to have a prayer of trying to save their country and get it back on course they will never vote for Hillary.
Donald Trump Says in Iowa: GOP Frontrunners Mitt Romney & Jeb Bush are Doomed to Lose … Regrets Not Having Run in 2012, ‘I Would’ve Won the Race Against Obama’
TRUMP HAS NOTHING GOOD TO SAY ABOUT MITT ROMNEY AND JEB BUSH …
In a sit-down interview with The Des Moines Register, Donald Trump said the two presumed GOP frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, are doomed to lose. The Donald also went on to say that he regretted that he hadn’t run himself in 2012. Although it is easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, Trump is
47% 100% correct on a couple of issues. One, Romney had his chance against a weak, unpopular president in 2012 and failed. Romney failed because he tried to back into the victory, rather than play offense and win the game. Two, “we’re Bushed out,” especially when Jeb Bush is for “common core” and is pro ‘illegal” amnesty. Much like what Se. Ted Cruz had stated, Romney and Bush represent the “mushy middle” and have no chance of winning.
In a sit-down interview with The Des Moines Register, he said the two presumed GOP frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, are doomed to lose — and he expressed regret that he hadn’t run himself in 2012.
Trump said he should be in the White House right now.
Trump said he’s not sure which of the potential GOP 2016ers he’d prefer right now, but he’s certain it would be a mistake for Romney to seek a third term.
“He failed. He choked. He’s like a deal-maker that didn’t close the deal. He shouldn’t be running again. He had a great opportunity to win against a president that was absolutely lame, and he didn’t do it. … The 47 percent statement, which was a disaster, is not going away. Romneycare is not going away. All of his problems are not going away. He should get out and get out quickly.”
As for Bush, a former governor of Florida whose family has sent two men to the White House, Trump said: “Frankly we’ve had enough of the Bushes. We’re bushed out.”
At Iowa Freedom Summit this weekend, Donald Trump slams Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush saying they are just not the answer for Republicans. Trump said as to the Presidential election in 2016 and who should be running for the GOP, “It can’t be Mitt because Mitt ran and failed.” Trump further went on to say, “the last thing we need is another Bush. Truer words have ever been spoken and imagine that, they come from The Donald. The last thing the GOP needs in 2016 is an establishment candidate that is more Democrat-like than that who would be in favor of Republican principles and the platform. Donald Trump stated in Iowa that he would “build a beauty of a fence along the southern border.” Whether Trump would or not, or whether he would even give up the perks of his private life to run for president, is irrelevant. What is relevant is that we cannot have another loser, establishment, mushy middle candidate in the form of John McCain or Mitt Romney as the standard bearer.
CBS News: Donald Trump slams Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush:
“It can’t be Mitt, because Mitt ran and failed,” Trump said.
Trump said he liked Romney, formerly a governor of Massachusetts, but he suggested Romney’s infamous “47 percent” comments and his affiliation with a Massachusetts health care reform plan akin to Obamacare should disqualify him.
Plus, Romney “choked” in 2012, failing to unseat Obama in an election that Republicans could have won, Trump argued.
“You can’t have Bush,” Trump added. “The last thing we need is another Bush.”
Trump criticized Bush’s support of common core federal education standards, and he panned Bush’s comment that many illegal immigrants come to the United States as an “act of love” to help their families.
“Half of these people are criminals,” Trump said. “They’re coming for a lot of other reasons, and it’s not love.”
Trump also suggested the unpopularity Jeb Bush’s brother, former President George W. Bush, helped usher President Obama into office: “His brother really gave us Obama.”
Trump offered an ambitious preview of his prospective presidential agenda. ” If I run for president, and if I win, I would totally succeed in creating jobs, defeating ISIS, and stopping the Islamic terrorists… reducing the budget deficit… securing our southern border… stopping nuclear weapons in Iran and elsewhere… saving Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid without cutting it down to the bone… repealing Obamacare and replacing it with something far better.”
Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley
DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley, then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.
If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.
The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.
Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.
• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.
• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.
• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.
• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.
• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP. Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.
Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!
In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.
Why? Let’s look at the map.
As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.
But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.
The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.
You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.
They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.