It’s Halloween time, but Senate Democrats have more to fear than ghosts, goblins, witches and vampires … NT Times and WAPO predict Democrats are the Walking “political” Dead …
With just days to go before the 2014 midterm November 4th elections, two very liberal papers, the New York Times and Washington Post, are predicting a GOP Senate takeover. The NY Times predicts that there is a 69% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate. According to the Times, Republicans will win Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana, leaving the seven most competitive states below in question. The NY Times predicts that Democrats will win the senate races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas; however, the GOP will run the rest of the seats in play in Georgia, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado. If the New York Times is correct, the GOP will hold a 52-48 control of the Senate after the elections.
According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 69% chance of gaining a majority.
State-by-State Probabilities #
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.
However, if Democrats think that the NYT’s 69% chance of a GOP victory is bad … the WAPO is predicting a 95% chance of the Republican party taking back control of the US Senate.
The model’s factors fall into three categories:
1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election. We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.
2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the major-party vote from the election six years before, which is the incumbent’s share of the Democratic and Republican votes, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.
3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races. (After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House model. There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office.)
Question: The NY Times and WAPO have been among the two most liberal media outlets that have carried the water for Barack Obama and Democrats, why are they calling the election now for the GOP? Is it because they want to put out faux-news and give Republicans voters a false sense of security or is it because they see the handwriting on the wall and are trying to mantain some sort of credibility by finally reporting the truth?
Harry Reid literally begs for money as he sees his job of Democrat Senate Majority Leader slipping away. Just curious Dingy Harry, if you can triple one’s gift, you need money how? I have a deal for you, You can just double my donation of $0.00.
But I’m emailing once more because this moment is absolutely critical. I know you’re a busy person, but this is an absolute MUST-READ:
Our Final Weekend Get Out The Vote Push is on the chopping block: We’re still $1,389,071 short with 24 hours left.
If we don’t fill that budget gap, we’ll be forced to scale back our plans to mobilize 575,000 voters this weekend. These are voters who could determine the outcome of the whole Senate.
I’m begging for your help to close the gap IMMEDIATELY. If we fall short before the last end-of-month deadline tomorrow, our chance to keep the Senate gets a whole lot smaller.
Will you pitch in to the Final Weekend GOTV Push before the final deadline in 24 hours? We’ll triple-match your gift.
Other nightmarish 2014 US Senate predictions for Democrats. None of the pollsters are predicting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and Harry Reid (NV-D) will no longer be Senate Majority Leader.
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Obama Hits News Low with 40% Approval Rating … Only 33% Among Independents … Democrats in Serious Trouble
HEY AMERICA, HOW’S THAT HOPEY-CHANGEY STUFF WORKING OUT FOR YA?
According to the most recent WAPO-ABC News poll, Barack Obama has hit an all-time low with an approval rating at 40% and a 51% disapproval. Actually, it is curious as to why it is not even lower. Among Independents, Obama only has a 33% approval. Under Obama’s watch, everything is a colossal disaster. Nothing is going good in the United States or around the world.
The US economy is a floundering mess, illegal immigration, ISIS is on the rise and now we have the October surprise of Ebola in the United States. Barack Obama polls poorly on all major political issues as we are week’s ahead of the November midterm elections and early voting has begun in some states.
Can you say EPIC FAILURE!!!
Heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign, the political landscape continues to tilt in favor of the Republican Party, with President Obama’s overall approval rating at the lowest level of his presidency and GOP voters signaling greater likelihood than Democrats that they will cast ballots, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Americans are looking to November and beyond with dissatisfaction about the state of the country and the political leadership in Washington. Two-thirds say the country is seriously off-track. And while more than 6 in 10 say the president lacks a clear plan for governing, …
See all polling data HERE.
The overall job approval rating average is not much better for Obama. According to RCP, only 42.0% approve, while 52.4% disapprove.
Barack Obama and his political party are heading into the midterm elections in trouble. The president’s 40 percent job approval rating in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the lowest of his career – and the Democratic Party’s popularity is its weakest in polling back 30 years, with more than half of Americans seeing the party unfavorably for the first time.
The Republican Party is even more unpopular. But benefitting from their supporters’ greater likelihood of voting, GOP candidates nonetheless hold a 50-43 percent lead among likely voters for U.S. House seats in the Nov. 4 election.
Posted October 16, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
Approval Rating, Barack Obama, Community Agitator, Epic Fail, Iraq, Islamist, Jihad, Leading from Behind, Lost in Smallness, Mexico, Misleader, Polls, Russia, Scandal, Terrorism, The Lying King, US National Security, WAPO-ABC News, War on Terror, West Africa | 5 comments
ABC News/WAPO Poll Gives Barack Obama Poor Grade on Handling Crisis of Illegals Coming into the United States Over Mexican Border
Imagine that, President Barack Obama gets low marks on yet another important key issue.
A recent ABC News/WAPO poll gives Obama extremely poor marks on dealing with illegals crossing the US-Mexican border as only 33% approve of his handling of the situation while 58% of all respondents disapprove and 60% of registered voters. How could anyone agree with Obama’s handling of this when he thought going to a fundraiser in Texas was more important than seeing the crisis for himself, first hand?
It’s one of the hottest national debates this summer: What to do about the influx of unaccompanied and undocumented children from Central America who are crossing from Mexico into the U.S.
A new national poll indicates that a majority of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s short term remedy, but most give the President and his GOP critics in Congress a thumbs down on how they’re handling the crisis along the country’s southern border.
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Keystone XL Pipeline Project Overwhelmingly Favored by Americans But Barack Obama Against Jobs
Once again Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong wide of the American people and refusing to approve a project that will create jobs for “We the People”.
According to a recent WAPO-ABC News poll, an overwhelming majority of Americans are in favor of supporting the contraction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline between Canada and the United States. 65% of Americans approve of the job creating pipeline project, while only 22% are opposed. An amazing 85% say that the Keystone XL oil pipeline project will create jobs; however, Obama continues to stonewall the project so to pander to his environmental wacko constituents. Republicans, Independents and Democrats are in favor of building the pipeline that will provide a significant economic benefit to the US, 82%, 65% and 51%, respectively. It is only moonbat, liberal Democrats that oppose the it.
Americans support the idea of constructing the Keystone XL oil pipeline between Canada and the United States by a nearly 3 to 1 margin, with 65 percent saying it should be approved and 22 percent opposed, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The findings also show that the public thinks the massive project, which aims to ship 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta and the northern Great Plains to refineries on the Gulf Coast, will produce significant economic benefits. Eighty-five percent say the pipeline would create a significant number of jobs, with 62 percent saying they “strongly” believed that to be the case.
That so many Americans back the pipeline, even with environmental risks, highlights the quandary facing President Obama and his top aides as they weigh whether to approve the proposal.
Support for Keystone is highest among Republicans, with 82 percent backing it. But majorities of independents and Democrats also want it approved, at 65 and 51 percent, respectively. Only self-identified liberal Democrats lean against, 47 percent to 36 percent.
But even though Obama continually says his primary focus to to create jobs for Americans, he does just the opposite. Obama wastes tax payers money on his failed backing of green energy policy like Solyndra, Fisker Automotive, ABC123, and Solar Trust just to mention a few. All he has to do is simply saying “yes”,instead he refuses to allow a job creating project to go forward. Obama’s war on oil is more important than jobs for the American people. Instead Obama would rather see Americans on food stamps and welfare, than working jobs for evil oil.
A recent State Department assessment said the project would create 1,950 jobs for a two-year period, after which it would generate 50 permanent jobs. But most people see it as a larger economic boon, the poll shows.
Posted March 8, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
Barack Obama, Chicago-Style Politics, Democrats, Divider in Chief, Economy, Energy, envirowackos, Epic Fail, Jobs, Keystone XL Pipeline, Liberals, Misleader, Moonbats, Obamanation, Obamanomics, Oil, Polls, Progressives, Radicals, Unemployment, WAPO-ABC News | 3 comments
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Barack Obama Job Approval Rating 55% Disapprove, 43% Approve … He’s Fallen & He Can’t Get Up!!!
2013 is not over yet and neither are President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers falling … He’s Fallen and he can’t Get Up!!!
The Emperor has no close, and no approval ratings either. The most recent WAPO-ABC News poll is out and it is not good news for Barack Obama or Democrats. Across the board on key issues that are important to Americans like the economy, handling the countries problems and trustworthiness, Obama has either lost significant ground or the lead all-together to the GOP. Obama’s polling numbers are in disarray because the American people, who once gave him the benefit of the doubt, now see that he cannot be trusted. Obama has wasted all this time and lied about Obamacare, rather than focusing on the economy and jobs as he had promised as well.
Check out the comparisons from just a year ago … Had America known now what they should have been made aware of in 2012, Barack Obama would have lost the 2012 presidential election in a landslide. Obama can thank his lucky stars that the US Constitution does not provide for recall elections for the president.
Pic- Washington Post, read full story HERE
President Obama is ending his fifth year in office matching the worst public approval ratings of his presidency, with record numbers of Americans saying they disapprove of his job performance and his once-hefty advantages over Republicans in Congress eroded in many areas, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
His position is all the more striking when compared with his standing a year ago, as he was preparing for his second inauguration after a solid reelection victory. That high note proved fleeting as the president faced a series of setbacks, culminating in the botched rollout of his Affordable Care Act two months ago.
Obama’s standing is of particular concern to congressional Democrats as they look to next year’s midterm elections. Parties that control the White House suffer — sometimes significantly — in midterm campaigns when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent.
On several key measures, Obama has lost significant ground to his Republican opponents in Congress. On the question of who is seen as better able to handle the country’s main problems, Obama and Republicans are tied at 41 percent. A year ago, the president’s advantage was 15 points and at this stage in 2010 it was still five points.
Obama also has lost the lead he enjoyed on who could better deal with the economy. Today Republicans are at 45 percent to Obama’s 41 percent.
Any lead that Barack Obama and Democrats had over the GOP have all but eroded in 2013.
Posted December 17, 2013 by Scared Monkeys
#You Lie, 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, Divider in Chief, Economy, Epic Fail, Ethics, Government, Healthcare, Healthcare.gov, Hope and Change, Job Approval, Misleader, Misrepresentation, Obamacare, Obamanation, Politics, Polls, The Lying King, Transparency, WAPO-ABC News, We the People, You Can Keep Your Insurance | one comment
WAPO/ABC News Poll: Buyer’s Remourse – Mitt Romney Would Beat Barack Obama if the Presidential Election was Held Today, 49% to 45% … Poll Numbers in Free-Fall
DOES ANYONE REALLY WONDER WHY OBAMA LIED THRU HIS TEETH ON OBAMACARE AND YOU CAN KEEP YOUR INSURANCE PLAN IF YOU LIKED IT? DO YOU REALLY WONDER WHY THE MSM NEVER BOTHERED TO ASK QUESTIONS?
It is the great fraud perpetrated on the American People …
As reported at The Politico, there is more disastrous polling numbers for President Barack Obama as a recent WAPO-ABC News poll shows that if the 2012 presidential election was held today, Mitt Romney would beat Obama, 49% to 45% among registered voters. Talk about your “buyer’s remorse”. This is a much different outcome than the 2012 match-up where Obama beat Romney 51% to 47% to win a second term. My how times have changed. What a difference the truth makes. What a difference it makes when the MSM decides to actually report on the numerous scandals of the Obama White House.
Making matters worse for Obama, Independents go for Romney 49% to 39% over Obama.
The WAPO/ABC poll also has Barack Obama’s job approval rating at 42% approve, 55% disapprove.
As more bad poll numbers continue to pour in for President Barack Obama, a new survey finds that if the 2012 election matchup were held this month, Mitt Romney would hold the edge with the voters.
Romney topped Obama 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday. Among all Americans, the 2012 rivals would be tied, at 47 percent.
Obama beat Romney 51 percent to 47 percent a year ago to win a second term.
The poll also found more bad news for Obama: His approval was down to 42 percent, a fall of 6 points from a month ago. Fifty-five percent disapproved.
Other ratings of the president’s performance have tumbled as well. He’s at career lows for being a strong leader, understanding the problems of average Americans and being honest and trustworthy – numerically under water on each of these (a first for the latter two). His rating for strong leadership is down by 15 points this year and a vast 31 points below its peak shortly after he took office. In a new gauge, just 41 percent rate him as a good manager; 56 percent think not.
This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that the president’s personal image has suffered alongside his professional ratings. Fewer than half, 46 percent, see him favorably overall, down 14 points this year to the fewest of his presidency. Fifty-two percent now view him unfavorably, a new high and a majority for the first time since he took office. It may matter: Personal popularity can provide a president with cushioning when the going gets rough. Losing it leaves the president more vulnerable.
ACA – Skepticism about the Affordable Care Act looks to be the driving force in Obama’s troubles. Americans by nearly 2-1, 63-33 percent, disapprove of his handling of implementation of the new health care law. And the public by 57-40 percent now opposes the law overall, its most negative rating to date, with opposition up by 8 points in the past month alone.
RCP Average Polling – Complete carnage, almost under 40% as an average.
EXIT QUESTION: How does everyone think that the 2012 Presidential, House and Senate elections would have turned out if IRS-gate was reported on, if Benghazi-gate had been reported on, if AP-gate had been reported on and if, Barack Obama had told the truth and said that 5-10 million individuals with private healthcare plans who liked their insurance would lose it? How about if he told those with employer insurance coverage would lose theirs as well and it would be worse? Hmm?
53% Disapprove of the Way Obama is Handling Implementation of Obamacare … 56% Believe Problems with the Website Sign of Broader Problems
Barack Obama’s handling of the Obamacare implementation train wreck gets poor marks … EPIC FAIL!!!
As if Obamacare was not unpopular enough, President Barack Obama is getting poor marks in regard to his handling of the implementation of his signature legislation. According to a recent WAPO-ABC News poll, 53% give Obama a negative grade in his handling of the implementation of Obamacare, while only 41% approve. With all of the failures of the Obamacare web page (Healthcare.gov) only uber-partisan hack Democrats actually gave Obama a glowing review, otherwise the the poll numbers would have been far worse and more accurate. Even the liberal MSM has shown that even logging on Healthcare.gov is nearly impossible. The Obamacare rollout has been “unacceptable” and “Excruciatingly Embarrassing.” Also, 56% of those polled believe that the numerous problems with the Obamacare web site are a sign of broader problems. Only 40% see the Web site problems as an isolated incident.
Most Americans say the rocky start for HealthCare.gov is a harbinger of bigger problems for the Affordable Care Act, according to results of a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Fifty-six percent of Americans say the Web site problems are part of a broader problem with the law’s implementation while just 40 percent see the Web site problems as an isolated incident. Reaction to federal insurance exchange Web site are deeply rooted in partisanship. More than eight in 10 Republicans say Web site troubles are a sign of broader implementation problems, while most Democrats call it an isolated incident. Independents resemble the public overall, with 55 percent seeing broader problems with implementation.
WAPO Poll: Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli Early Lead Over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia Governor’s Race, 46% – 41%
Six months before election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia and according to a recent WAPO poll, Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has an early lead over former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliff for the Virginia Governor’ race, 46% to 41%. Cuccinelli leads among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters certain to cast a ballot. Cuccinelli is up in the race because he has overwhelming support from the GOP base due to his opposition work against Obamacare. Among all registered voters, Cuccinelli is backed by 95 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of conservatives and 62 percent among white men. In contrast, compared with Obama’s presidential win seven months ago, McAuliffe is badly underperforming among key Democratic constituencies.
Full polling data can be found HERE.
Six months before Election Day, Cuccinelli (R) has a slender 46 to 41?percent edge over McAuliffe (D) among all Virginia voters and a significant 51 to 41?percent lead among those who say they’re certain to cast ballots in November. But those numbers may change before then: The poll found that barely 10 percent say they are following the campaign “very closely” and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.
With Virginia’s evolution into a swing state, the race is drawing intense scrutiny as the nation’s lone competitive November matchup so far. McAuliffe has not been able to assemble the coalition that has led Democrats to statewide victories. President Obama prevailed in 2008 and 2012, and Democratic U.S. Sens. Mark Warner and Timothy M. Kaine won in recent years after running as consensus-building moderates and driving the base turnout.
I cannot see Ken Cuccinelli losing to McAuliffe. Then again I cannot even begin to understand how this state voted for Barack Obama in 2012. It is way too early to handicap this, but in an off, off year election with a floundering economy and Obama’s approval rating hitting the skids as a lame duck president. A jazzed up Republican base could push Ciccinelli into the Governor’s mansion.
WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47%, BUT …
Once again we are presented with a poll that in order to give President Barack Obama a lead, the poll had to over-sample democrats by +6. The partisan breakdown is 35% Democrat, 32% independent, and 29% Republican. Thus, in order for this to be remotely possible Obama would have to capture lighting in a bottle and recreate the 2008 voter turnout o+7D that was a once in a life time event. In other words, fat chance.
One thing that will come from a post 2012 election is that polling will be put front and center and forever questioned as being credible or partisan.
Don’t look now but Mitt Romney just hit the 50% mark in another poll.
According to the most recent ABC-WAPO poll, Romney now leads Obama 50% to 47%. Likely voters now pick Romney over Obama in trust to handle the economy by 52% to 43%. All this even with a poll sampling of +4 D.
Full poll results can be found HERE.
Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama – Romney’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date.
The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of sampling error in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, and their individual support levels have not significantly changed. But the momentum on underlying issues and attributes is Romney’s.
For those pundits who said debates do not matter could never have been more wrong. According to poll results, Romney has a huge lead with Independents and were heavily swayed by Romney’s debate performance.
Most strikingly, Romney’s advanced to 57 percent support among independents. They’re a changeable group, less rooted in partisan predispositions, so their eventual preferences – and their turnout – are uncertain. But they’re key to Romney’s current fortunes; he’s improved among independents by 9 points in the past week.
The debates are one apparent reason. By a broad 47-10 percent, independents say the debates left them with a better rather than a worse impression of Romney. In the same group, by contrast, just 17 percent say their impression of Obama improved – and 26 percent say it got worse.