George Will Predicts Romney Landslide 321-217 on ABC’s ‘This Week” … Similar to Barone’s Landslide Prediction
Most pundits are calling the 2012 Presidential race too close to call as the RCP averages of polls have it a dead tie.
However, that did not stop conservative columnist on ABC’s “This Week’ to predict a Mitt Romney electoral landslide. Will predicted a 321-217 electoral victory for Romney. What I do find interesting is that a couple of people have gone out on a limb and said that Romney will get over 300 electoral votes; however, no one is really saying that Obama will do such. What we are seeing from Will and Barone is that if the undecided’s break for the challenger Mitt Romney, battleground states could fall like dominoes for Romney.
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”
Add Will’s landslide prediction to that of numbers cruncher extraordinaire Michael Barone. His prediction of a landslide is based
on fundamentals, a majority of Americans are against Obama’s policies. and a sluggish economy where job growth and recovery has been far too slow. Barone is predicting a Romney 315, Obama 223 landslide. Barone stated that it sounds high for Romney, but he could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 ). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
There have been so many polls and so many divergent polling models that have oversampled democrats that something is going to have to give come election day. The voter turnout will make the difference and it is hard to believe that democrats will come out for Obama as they did in 2008. Romney has the enthusiasm on his side. They question is whether it will be enough to carry him over the finish line.
That being said, there appears to be a late surge for Mitt Romney just two days before the 2012 Presidential election. Recent polls from Rasmussen have Romney up in Colorado, 50%-47%.
A Pittsburgh Tribune poll out today has the race a tie in the Keystone state. TIED, PENNSYLVANIA? Is this the reason why Romney bout ads and is going to Pennsylvania in the days heading up to the election.
“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.
We had previously discussed the rather surprising poll out of Michigan.
The battleground state of Ohio has conflicting polls. The Hill had Romney over Obama 49% – 47%. The Columbus Dispatch has their poll going to Obama 50% to 48%. However, the poll sampling is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 21% independent.
And now for the unheard of, in deep blue Minnesota, among likely voters Romney is actually leading Obama, 47% to 46%. Really folks if Obama is not going to win sold blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin by double digits, he has a real problem.
Team Obama, his minions and the in the tank liberal MSM have touted that Obama was overwhelmingly ahead in his ground game and early voting. NOT SO FAST.
Last night Senator Rob Portman (OH-R) spoke with Sean Hannity discussing voting in Ohio and Mitt Romney’s chances of victory. According to latest reports, 230,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio this year. Also in contrast, 40,000 more Republicans have voted early in Ohio this year.
Gallup states that Romney is up by 7 over Obama in early voting. We will only know on election eve who has been telling the truth when it comes voter turnout.
Did You Miss This … Rush Limbaugh Discusses the Drive By MSM Shocked by Focus Group Voter Reaction to Debate between Romney & Obama
More MSM bias … they just were stunned that voters reacted positive to Mitt Romney, Just Stunned!!!
If the liberal MSM was shocked by the reaction of focus group voters following the third and final presidential debate, they are in for a doozy election eve. The CBS focus group of undecided voters in Ohio gave the debate win to Mitt Romney. OUCH, that was not what the liberal media wanted to hear.
Rush Limbaugh discusses the shock of the MSM as only he can.
To the audio sound bites! This morning on CBS This Morning, I have a portion here of National Correspondent Dean Reynolds’ report on a panel of undecided Ohio voters who watched last night’s debate and what they got from it.
Now, you can’t see it, obviously. This is radio. But Norah O’Donnell’s face in this sound bite is priceless. These people cannot believe what they are hearing. What we have here is an undecided Ohio voter on this panel, Norah O’Donnell and the cohost Charlie Rose. And they start off here with Dean Reynolds, who is a CBS correspondent in Ohio.
REYNOLDS: When it was all over, they were asked who won. The president got two votes. Governor Romney got six. All had made up their minds, at least for now.
Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney is closing the gap in the polls in Ohio as we head into the second of three Presidential debates. As Mitt Romney draws closer, Romney has also seen his crowd get much larger and enthusiastic. The momentum is presently with Romney.
(Reuters) – Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is recovering ground in the critical swing state of Ohio as he rises in the polls and crowd numbers swell after his strong debate performance last week against President Barack Obama.
Despite pundits and pollsters dismissing Romney’s chances in the state in late September, the Republican is now either tied or just barely trailing Obama in Ohio ahead of the next presidential debate on Tuesday night.
At an event with thousands of Ohioans on Friday night, Romney boasted of “a growing crescendo of enthusiasm.” He has spoken to several large audiences in Ohio this week.
“(Obama’s) campaign is about smaller and smaller things, and our campaign is about bigger and bigger crowds fighting for a bright future,” he said on Saturday.
According to the RCP averaging of polling data, Obama is only ahead of Romney by 48% to 46.3%. Of course this is based on counting a suspect MNBC/WSJ/Marist poll that used a +10D Registered and +11D Likely polling sample to get a results of Obama +6.
Don’t look now but the Ohio US Senate race is back in play …
According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, the Ohio Senate race has been switched from a safe Democrat seat back to a toss up. The Ohio Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and GOP challenger Josh Mandel is now tied at 46% a piece. Rasmussen’s last poll had Brown up by +8.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Josh Mandel each earning 46% support. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Barack Obama Widens Lead Over Romney in Swing States Ohio, Florida & PA with a Skewed Sampling of D+9 and Greater (Update: Polls Questioned as Bunk)
All Polls are not created equal … some are just skewed numbers meant to fit the liberal MSM and Democrat narrative …
Yet another example of the fraud that the MSM is trying to perpetrate on the Americans people to try depress the GOP vote turnout by claiming the swing state races are over. The fraud this time is courtesy of the New York Times and Qunnipiac. It has become obvious that polls can no longer be taken at face value or believed unless one takes the time t dig down to the data sampling. However, the liberal, corrupt media complex is hoping, they are praying that a lazy America does not. As Macsmind says. knock it of NYT, the GOP is coming out to vote in 2012.
For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral votes.
Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency.
The polls, along with interviews with supporters and advisers in the nation’s two largest battleground states, lay bare an increasingly urgent challenge facing Mr. Romney as he prepares for his next chance to move the race in his favor, at the first debate with Mr. Obama next week. Mr. Romney’s burden is no longer to win over undecided voters, but also to woo back the voters who seem to be growing a little comfortable with the idea of a second term for Mr. Obama.
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.
The surveys, which had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate, also included a Pennsylvania poll, where Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by 12 percentage points.
HOG WASH … However, a funny, no a hideous and blatantly fraud happened on the way to the 2012 elections in the polling. The in the tank for Obama media has been skewing the polling sampling so bad for Obama that of course they are going to show that the Obamamessiah is leading. The latest skewed sampling by the NY Times/Qunnipiac has lead to a poll that shows Obama allegedly is up 10 in Ohio, 9 in Florida and 12 in Pennsylvania? If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t look now but the NY Times/Qunnipiac used a +D9 sample in Florida, a +9D sampling in Ohio and a +11 sample in Pennsylvania. WOW, that is a greater sampling than the 2008 once in a life-time, anomaly election of the first black President Obama. Who honestly believes that the turnout is going to be anything like 2008? However, this poll thinks even more D’s are going to turn out.
It looks like this fact was not lost either over at Jammie Wearing Fool … “So Obama is up 9 in Florida with a D+9 sample, up 10 in Ohio with a D+9 sample and up 12 in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample” What a coincidence, eh? Is it a close race, yes. Does Romney have a lot of work to do between now and election day, yes. However, to purposely present an obvious skewed poll as if it was fact and then have the liberal MSM run with it as news is nothing more than Obama propaganda.
Such a poll is not even worth adding to the RCP average of polling as it is so badly skewed, even when averaging it with other polls it brings up the polling number for Obama. Shameful, simply shameful.
UPDATE I: From NewsBusters, Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew. Gee, YA THINK? In order for this poll to be considered valid, Democrats would have to come out in record numbers even greater than 2008. Sorry, I have to break the orgasmic MSM’s bubble, but that ain’t happening.
Despite not believing that Democrats would have a 9-point advantage, Brown defended his organization, claiming that he and his colleagues were not intentionally trying to skew their sample size:
“We didn’t set out to oversample Democrats,” he protested. “We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen.”
But what if that screen is simply not enough? The 2012 presidential election is unlikely to have an electorate which is similar to the ones before it. In the 2008 election, young and black voters turned out in record numbers and voted in even higher percentages for Obama. As specific surveys of these two voter groups have shown, however, both are dispirited this time around and are less likely to turn out for Democrats.
Obamanomics & Job Recovery … Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July Including 9 Battleground States
Just more evidence that the Obama jobs recovery and Obamanomics has been an epic failure.
Not only did the national US unemployment rise from 8.2% to 8.3% in July, but also the unemployment rates rose in 44 US states. That includes the increase in the unemployment rates in 9 battleground states like Nevada, that saw the rate rise to 12% in July from 11.6% and in Michigan, where the rate increased to 9% from 8.5%. Other battleground states that saw increases in the unemployment rates were Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Unemployment rates rose in 44 U.S. states in July, the most states to show a monthly increase in more than three years and a reflection of weak hiring nationwide.
The Labor Department said Friday that unemployment rates fell in only two states and were unchanged in four.
Unemployment rates rose in nine states that are considered battlegrounds in the presidential election. That trend, if it continued, could pose a threat to President Barack Obama’s re-election bid in less than three months.
Nationwide, hiring improved in July after three months of tepid job gains. But the national unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent. Monthly job gains have averaged 150,000 this year. That’s barely enough to accommodate population growth. As a result, the unemployment rate is the same as when the year began.
What is Obama’s answer, more stimulus money for infrastructure projects. Obama code for giving jobs to union workers. Even though Obama said in the past when his previous stimulus plan was a failure, there were no shovel ready jobs then or now. At best these are temporary jobs, not permanent.
More bad news for Obama and Democrats, Americans prefer the GOP to Democrats in trusting them to fix the economy.
Brian in a Blue State
Presidential Election Polls: Rasmussen Now Has Ohio Dead Even Obama 45%, Romney 45% … Paul Ryan has 51% Favorable Rating in Buckeye State
Romney-Ryan on the rise in Ohio …
The latest Rasmussen poll has the Presidential election all tied up in the Buckeye state of Ohio. Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are now tied at 45% each in the first Rasmussen poll since Romney named Paul Ryan his VP candidate. In the previous poll conducted on July 17, 2012 Obama lead Romney 47% to 45%. Also, it would seem that the pick of Ryan as the GOP candidate for VP suits Ohioans well. In another Rasmussen poll, Paul Ryan has a 51% favorability rating while only 39% have an unfavorable view.
Rasmussen Reports’ latest look at the presidential race in Ohio shows President Obama and Mitt Romney running dead even at 45% each.
A new telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds that six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Ryan appears to be a solid pick for VP in Ohio, a must win state for Mitt Romney if be plans on winning the presidency.
Will US Rep Paul Ryan (WI-R) Pick for Romney’s Vice President Bring Wisconsin into Play and Affect Other Midwest States Like Iowa, Ohio, Michigan?
With today’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-R) as Mitt Romney’s Vice President, will this have an affect on the Presidential races in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states like Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota?
According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Obama leads Romney in Wisconsin 49% to 46%. However, this poll was taken prior to the announcement of Ryan being named Romney’s VP pick. In last months Rasmussen poll, Romney inched ahead of the president for the first time in the state – 47% to 44%. It is safe to say that the “Cheese head” state is in play.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Wisconsin Likely Voters shows the president drawing 49% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Romney is viewed favorably by 50% of Wisconsin voters and unfavorably by 48%, showing little change from last month. The latest findings include Very Favorable reviews from 23% and Very Unfavorable ones from 30%.
Romney leads the president 46% to 39% among Wisconsin voters who are not affiliated with either major political party. The GOP challenger has a seven-point lead among male voters in the state, but the president is ahead by 11 points among female voters.
In 2008 Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Wisconsin 56% to 43%. However, in 2012 Obama is yet to reach 50% as the incumbent. With the recent GOP successes in Wisconsin like the Governor Scott Walker victory in 2010 and his his follow up victory in 2012 with the failed Democrat recall election, Republicans have reason for hope in possibly wrestling Wisconsin away from Democrats in 2012.