Final CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac Poll in OH, FL, VA show Obama up, But … Sampling Skewed

Another bogus poll Gives Obama the lead…

With just five days to go before the 2012 Presidential election, the final  CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac poll is out and it has Barack Obama in the lead in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Pie in the sky sampling gives Obama lead in poll of three swing states.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

However, not so fast. The small Obama lead was a result of questionable over-sampling of Democrats. As stated by Hot Air, at least the poll is consistent in their over-sampling. The CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac polls used the following sampling, FL: 37D/30R/29I, OH: 37D/29R/30I, VA: 35D/27R/35I. The +7D in Florida, +8D in Ohio and +8D in Virginia os greater than the 2008 one in a life time wave election of Obama in 2008. No one thinks that Obama will find lighting in a bottle and recreate 2008. So why does this poll them skew the sample as if Obama will?

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

The PJ Tatler has more on the under-sampling of Republicans in polls in order to give the appearance of Obama in the lead.

I have to ask, what do these polling outfits think they are accomplishing? No one in the future will deem them credible, so why skew a poll? If one needs to over-sample Democrats in order to show he has a lead, what good is this? No one but no one believes that the turnout will be like 2008 for Obama in 2012. If anything, Romney and the GOP have the enthusiasm on their side.

The end result is that there are going to be many polling folks with egg on their face and a lot of explaining to do on November 7th. At some point in the future polls are going to have to be checked for their sincerity prior to being released as a news. All polls are not created equal and the liberal MSM obviously has slanted much of this data to favor their candidate.

UPDATE I: If the Q-poll cannot be trusted for a +8D sampling for an Obama lead, the same has to be said for thinking that the VA Senate race is not skewed as well.

Kaine is now ahead of Allen, 50 to 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The Republican has gained ground since earlier in October, when Kaine was up 51 to 44 percent in the same poll. Among independent voters in the most recent poll, Allen was ahead of Kaine, 56 to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. In contrast, the poll earlier this month showed independents supporting Kaine over Allen, 51 to 42 percent.

Mitt Romney Leads Barack Obama in a CBS/NY Times Poll 46% – 43% … Yes, that is Correct in a CBS/NY Times Poll

WOW, Mitt Romney even leads President Barack Obama in a CBS/NY Times poll, 46% to 43%.

Yes, you read that correctly. Barack Obama finds himself behind the presumptive GOP Presidential candidate Romney by 3%. The trending for Obama is becoming troublesome for the “first Gay President”. In February 2012 Obama lead Romney 48%-42%, in March 2012 Obama lead 47%-44%, in April 2012 Obama and Romney were tied at 46% and presently Romney leads by 3%. That is a 9% swing since February. Did we mention that this was a CBS/NY Times poll?

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney’s slight advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

As stated at NRO, Obama’s gay marriage decision to go “gay for pay” appears to have hurt him significantly in the polls.More than not individuals are now less likely to vote for Obama because of his position on gay marriage.

Overall, the CBS/NYT poll found that 25 percent of voters are less likely to back Obama because of his new position on gay marriage, while 16 percent are more likely. Twelve percent of Democrats, 23 percent of independents, and 43 percent of Republicans are less likely to support him.

Full Poll Results.

Even though RCP still has the average polling with Obama up by 1.4% over Romney, if one only looks at the most recent polling after 5/7/2012, Romney is trending up and in the lead by 2.0%.

UPDATE I: Hot Air has the polling sample that was used for this poll. WOW … The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.