It is the reason why one looks at poll trending and not just a snap shot in time, the GOP is back on top in the Gallup poll Generic Ballot.Once again Republicans find them self with a 5% point lead at 48% to 43% margin over Democrats. The Democrats short lived two week lead is over and represents nothing more than an anomaly in an obvious political trend.
Registered voters favor Republicans by 48% and Democrats by 43% in Gallup’s generic congressional ballot for the week of July 26 through Aug. 1. This follows two weeks when the numbers were nearly reversed.
While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican advantage in turnout.
What causes turnout in a midterm election, enthusiasm! Although down a bit from previous polling, the GOP is way out ahead of Democrats in voter enthusiasm to vote in 2010 by a 44% to 22% margin. Look for Republican enthusiasm to rise the closer we get to the 2010 midterm election and for Democrat enthusiasm to wane as ethics investigations with Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters take place in September as well as a jobless economy continues. People vote with their wallets and pocketbook and vote against the party in power in a down economy.
If any House, Senate, Governor or state race is close this November, look for the advantage to go toward to the GOP election night. Although as Ruby Red Slippers points out, Denial is not just a river in Egypt. It is all that Democrats have to cling to as they try and make excuses to find any justification to spin that the 2010 midterms will not be a political turkey shoot.
After all, when Dan RAthER says you are going to lose the House and Chris “I have a thrill running up my leg” Matthews agrees … Dems, you have a problem.