Aruba: No White Bread for You … The economic effects keep coming

Just how bad is it getting in Aruba? No white bread to be made available? Forget about “No Soup for you” … Aruba, “No white bread for you”.  The BBO strikes again. Talk about desperate for tax revenue. And why is Aruba scraping for tax revenue? Who wants to admit the one thing that occurred in Aruba that has caused all of this to occur?  Can anyone in Aruba state that white bread would be off the menus prior to the disappearance of Natalee Holloway?

Are you beginning to understand the far reaching implications of what this botched investigation and cover-up by Aruban officials has done? The affects of individuals boycott to vacation in a place they deemed unsafe and worse yet, a place where tourists knew they would never get any help from authorities was never going to occur overnight. The deep effects of a downward economy are like turning an ocean liner. It takes time; however, when the effects finally do take place … they take even longer to correct. Aruba, was it worth it?

ORANJESTAD – If it is up to the association of bakeries, there won’t be white bread (kipashi) on the shelves starting this January 1st.  The minister of Finance and Economic Affairs has announced the new price for white bread, which includes the bbo, but the association doesn’t agree with the price increase, because the bakers say that it is not enough to cover the costs. 

Read the full story, Amigoe; December 31, 2006: No white bread due to bbo

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Aruba’s Tourism Still in the Tank for August 2006 even after a Concerted Marketing Campaign

As the rest of the Caribbean sees increases in their tourism, Aruba continues to not even break even. Does anyone in Aruba want to rethink the notion that the “Natalee Holloway” situation with go away in 4 days? Do you still doubt Scared Monkey’s June 2, 2005 initial post, This Can’t Be Good For Tourism, Where’s Natalee Holloway?

It is hard to imagine that Aruba’s tourism numbers have still not stabilized after all this time following the disappearance of Natalee Holloway. Eventually, after the disastrous 2005 and 2006 decline in tourism Aruba will have to hit rock bottom and show some type of increase. However, even with what little increase they may show the tourism numbers in Aruba are far from what they once were. Especially factoring in the fact that many Caribbean islands are showing rapid increases. The bad news continues in the CBA report for October 2006.

Year to date for the first 8 months of 2006 stay over visitors are down nearly 10%. This while tourism is up across the Caribbean. From the Aruba Central Bank:

• In October 2006, money supply shrank by Afl. 9.7 million or 0.4 percent to Afl. 2,463.6 million. This contraction was the result of an Afl. 8.3 million outflow of funds to abroad and an Afl. 1.4 million decrease in net domestic assets.
• In August 2006, the number of stay-over visitors and their nights spent on the island
  declined by 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, compared to the corresponding
  month in 2005.
• In the first eight months of 2006, stay-over visitors and total nights spent on the island shrank by 9 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
• According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the average occupancy rate of the hotels for October 2006 shows a contraction of 6.2 percentage points to 73.7 percent, compared to the corresponding month a year earlier.

(click on doc to enlarge)

More disastrous economic numbers are reported from the CBA from the second quarter in Aruba. Couple these continued poor results with the upcoming 2007 BBO “turnover tax”, Royal Caribbean no longer docking in Aruba and the tax battle with Valero.

Quarterly bulletin for the second quarter of 2006

• The Centrale Bank van Aruba (the Bank) mentions in its Bulletin of the second quarter of 2006 that available information indicates a weakening in current business conditions in the second quarter of 2006. Indicative hereof is that the Partial Economic Activity Index (PEAI), as published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), showed a 2.0 percent decline in the volume of business activities, compared to the corresponding quarter a year earlier.
• Compared to previous surveys, a decline in the optimism for the coming months has also been noticed. The performance in business conditions is affected by an ongoing weak performance in the tourism sector, as indicated by the numbers of stay-over visitors and nights spent on the island, which declined by 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
• Gross tourism receipts decreased by 4 percent, while the average hotel occupancy rate recorded a 6.3 percentage points decline to 74.4 percent.
• Inflationary pressures remained unabated in the second quarter of 2006. The quarterly
  average inflation rate remained high at 3.9 percent
• This improvement reflected mainly a decrease in payment arrears to government-related institutions (including the AZV) and suppliers of goods and services of, respectively, Afl. 29 million and Afl. 9 million. However, total government debt surged by Afl. 119 million (7 percent) to Afl. 1,882 million, compared to the second quarter of 2005, reflecting increases in both domestic and foreign debt of Afl. 69 million (7 percent) and Afl. 50 million (6 percent), respectively. The debt-to-GD (GDP 2005) ratio rose by 3 percentage points to 47 percent.

Seems That Aruba is Asking For Advice … Too bad they Don’t Want to Listen to the Truth

Aruba’s tourism is continually down as compared to other competing islands. The rest of the Caribbean is up double digits in pretty much every case.

“The facts are clear: we are down, way down,compared to other competing islands.” AHATA

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHY? ARE YOU JOKING?

(Click  on Bon Dia article to enlarge)

So Aruba wants answers … Can they handle what they will hear?

You would dare ask why? Maybe that’s why your tourism is down the drain. You continue to insult people’s intelligence asking why Aruba has suffered a tourism plight. I think Aruba knows exactly why, Aruba is just unwilling to say it, rectify it, or acknowledge it. Aruba has stuck its head in its own beaches white sand for so long, that after 18 months since Natalee Holloway went missing you wonder why your tourism is nonexistent.

Do you not want to admit the truth? Do you live in a world of denial? Or are the people responsible for tourism that ignorant? Do you really want advice? Maybe you should listen to those who know rather than those that tell you what you want to hear.

From the very beginning when Natalee Holloway went missing, Scared Monkeys made the following comment, This Can’t Be Good For Tourism, Where’s Natalee Holloway. From the very beginning we were very honest and up front as to what would occur if Aruban officials were not sincere in their investigation. We told the good people of Aruba what would occur if the made the investigation a farce and put tourism over an investigation. We even told Arubans and their voters that the most important issue during their elections was Natalee Holloway. Pridefully, they stated it was not. Instead, Aruba lived in a world of denial that this all would blow over. Americans would forget. They would come flocking back. Could Aruba have been any more wrong? Looking back in hindsight Aruba at your tourism and economy, do you think now that Natalee Holloway was not the most important issue? The downfall of your tourism and economy can be traced back to that one event.

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Tourism Down, Inflation Up in Aruba according to the Central Bank of Aruba for September 2006

The Central Bank of Aruba has posted its monthly report for September 2006; even though the report mentions that the information about the number of sojourn tourists and the number of days they stayed is not yet available for the months of August and September, conveniently enough. However, here is the damaging information that they report does mention.

• The average inflation pace on a yearly basis was also 4.1 percent, which means an acceleration of 0.9 percent point compared with same period a year ago.
• price index figure for the family consumption in September was 4.1 percent higher that in September of 2005
• The number of sojourn tourists and the number of days they stayed has dropped with respectively 10.2 and 7.2 percent in the first seven months of this year.
• According to CBS, the room occupancy of the hotels show a drop of 2.5 to 66.6 percent for September, compared with last year.

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Caribbean Tourism Doing Well Exceeding Global Growth Average, except Aruba … Pirates of the Caribbean

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) tourism has done well in the Caribbean exceeding the global growth average by 5.1 percent. Caribbean doing well … except one. It would appear that many Caribbean islands are taking advantage of Aruba’s misfortune. Plundering their tourists if you will. Making up for past years. Does anyone really think that other Caribbean islands are not exploiting Aruba’s screw ups for their own gains? Looks like the rest of the Caribbean have become the true, Pirates of the Caribbean.

According to that organization, world tourism is expected to grow 4 percent in 2007. There has also been a positive growth trend for the world tourism market for four years in a row. Seems that Aruba is not participating in this growth.

“International tourism is likely to remain buoyant unless major incidents occur,” reported the Madrid-based UNWTO. “Forecast growth of four percent in 2007, while slightly down on previous years (the annualized rise was 5.5 percent in 2005), coincides with WTO long term forecasts putting annual growth at 4.1 percent through 2020.” (The Nassau Guardian)

Things usually do remain “buoyant” unless there are “major incidents”. Don’t they? One is then supposed to deal with said major incident, not hide it is the closet.

“International tourism is likely to remain buoyant unless major incidents occur.”

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