UPDATED: University of Colorado Study Updated Election Forecasting Model Still Points to Romney Win in 2012 Electoral Presidential Election


Bickers – Berry model has Romney beating Obama 53.3% to 46.7 % and by electoral vote 330 to 208.

University of Colorado study, the Bickers and Berry model, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver still has Mitt Romney defeating Barack Obama 330 electoral college votes to 208. The model is based upon state level economic data and the analysis of analysis of unemployment and per-capita income. The economic indicators point to a Romney victory in 2012. According to accounts, this model has been correct within 20 or so electoral votes since 1980.

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.
The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

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  • Comments

    5 Responses to “UPDATED: University of Colorado Study Updated Election Forecasting Model Still Points to Romney Win in 2012 Electoral Presidential Election”

    1. Scared Monkeys on October 8th, 2012 6:30 am

      Hmm, PA and MN eh?

      If we were looking at just economic numbers, I would say yes. But for some reason those getting hand outs want to be dependent on the govt rather than being independent and working. Not all, but many.

      One would think that PA would vote for the GOP much the way West VA does. However, I have to believe that too many people from NY and NJ migrated to the Keystone state to escape high taxes and kept their politics.

    2. I WANT A LEADER on October 8th, 2012 7:14 am

      Pa, MN, Ohio????????????????????????????

      as much chance of that happening as Mitt telling the truth
      SM: I am suspect of MN and PA, but sorry Ohio is completely in play. How about Obama telling the truth that he would reduce the deficit by half after the end of his first term?

      If you want a leader, why would you ever vote for Obama, or is that an oxymoron?

    3. I WANT A LEADER on October 8th, 2012 8:21 am

      because mitt romney is a true etch a sketch candidate. and does not know the meaning of the word truth.
      his campaign had to walk back his lies from the debate. He was all about how his program was going to cover pre existing conditions……That turned out to be another LIE
      guess you want a president who is trained to remember lines for 90 minutes. The guy has no core and is not a job creator. He was HORRIBLE as the gov of mass when i lived there.
      i guess you want a candidate who will turn social security into a voucher program causing the elderly to pay more…..
      Best of luck on that one.

      Tell me…..What exactly does Mitt Romney believe in…..
      and this guy who used every deduction possible include stashing his money overseas to get out of taxes…..This is the guy you want to lead tax reform……hahahahahahahahah
      SM: ” true etch a sketch candidate.” … wow, that’s all you got is MSM/Obama talking points?

      Since when is it against the law to take deductions? Is that all you got? Like Obama did not take every one he could as well? Know what the difference is … Romney donated 30% of his income to charities and always has. Too bad Obama and Biden could not say the same.

      So sad that you buy into class warfare.

      Romney has done more for job creation than Obama could dream of. Obama did such a great job during the debate defending his BS job growth. The only way he could reduce the unemployment rate is have a record low job participation rate, record # of people on food stamps and record debt. Yea, that’s the idiot I would want in charge of the US economy another 4 years. A total and EPIC FAILURE … OBAMA.

    4. B on October 8th, 2012 9:04 pm

      I agree that Romney will win the 2012 election but not by the margin submitted by the University of Denver professors. My count is Romney 291 – Obama – 247. Obama will take the likely Democratic states including New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada. Romney will take the traditional Republican states but also Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, N.Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Colorado.
      SM: I tend to agree with many of the states you predicted above for Romney, however, I would add NH as well. I would say this … If Romney does win by such a margin that this survey is stating, the coattails in US Senate, House and State races would be similar to the 2010 midterm Democrat shellacking.

      America needs a mandate election for Romney so that Congress starts doing the work of the People and not Democrats in a post election just trying to block progress.

      We need a President who leads, not campaigns 24/7/365.

    5. watso on November 7th, 2012 12:39 am

      fail much?

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