UPDATED: University of Colorado Study Updated Election Forecasting Model Still Points to Romney Win in 2012 Electoral Presidential Election

 

Bickers – Berry model has Romney beating Obama 53.3% to 46.7 % and by electoral vote 330 to 208.

University of Colorado study, the Bickers and Berry model, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver still has Mitt Romney defeating Barack Obama 330 electoral college votes to 208. The model is based upon state level economic data and the analysis of analysis of unemployment and per-capita income. The economic indicators point to a Romney victory in 2012. According to accounts, this model has been correct within 20 or so electoral votes since 1980.

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.



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