Some one might want to tell Barack Obama it is not 2008 anymore.
Those who voted in Obama in 2008 have seem to abandoned him. As Byron York says, the coalition he led to victory in 2008 has frayed in just two years. Obama has downward polling numbers with independents, women, men, old, young and those in between. The One also has lower trending polling data with whites, Hispanics and even black. If the trends continue, Obama will be a one term President and a One term “One-der”
We’re fast approaching the halfway point in Barack Obama’s term. With Nov. 2 behind him, everything the president does will be calculated to boost, or at least not harm, his chances of re-election in 2012. What’s not clear is whether he fully appreciates how badly the coalition he led to victory in 2008 has frayed in just two years. A look inside his poll numbers suggests that if he cannot turn around some key trends, he’ll be a one-term president.
Just look at the exit polls from 2008, which reveal the demographic contours of Obama’s support. Compare those with Gallup’s weekly analysis of the president’s approval rating, drawn from multiple polls broken down by age, gender, political philosophy, and the like. Throw in some insights from the midterm elections, and the mix shows a dramatic deterioration in Obama’s 2008 support. “His majority coalition is not there,” says Republican pollster David Winston. “What he put together, at least in the way he put it together, just isn’t there.”
Take a look at those that Obama won in 2008, if the trends continue, Obama will lose. What a shock that Obama has lost ground with so many polling demographics, as if the 2010 midterm elections and the political carnage at the hands of the Democrat party was not a noticeable mark.
- Start with voters who call themselves independents. Obama won 52 percent of them in 2008; now, according to Gallup, he is at 42 percent.Obama’s party as a whole fared even worse among independents in the midterms, losing them to Republicans by 19 points.
- Next, women. In 2008, Obama won 56 percent of female voters. Today, he’s at 49 percent.
- Even younger voters, a key part of Obama’s coalition, are peeling away. In ’08, Obama won 66 percent of voters 18-29 years of age. Now, he’s at 58 percent.
- Obama has dropped 5 percentage points among voters in and around middle age, and 8 percent with voters above 65.
- Then there are white voters. In ’08, Obama won 43 percent of whites. Now, he’s at 37 percent.
- He won 67 percent of Hispanic voters in 2008; now, he’s at 58 percent.
- Even support among black voters, a bedrock for Obama, has ticked downward; after winning 95 percent of blacks in ’08, he’s now at 89 percent.
It would appear that Obama has lost ground with all groups except those with graduate degrees.