Gallup Poll: Get Ready for the 2010 Midterm Political Tidal Wave & Tsunami … Republicans Up by Record 10% Over Democrats in Generic Ballot


Democrats, what’s that sound? It’s the sound of inevitability.

Think Democrats are not beginning to panic?  Republicans have a 10% lead, 51% to 41%, over Democrats in the latest Gallup Generic Ballot poll, it is the largest lead in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. The Perfect Storm of Democrat political carnage is taking shape … the more the Obama WH blames others, the more the Democrats do not listen to “We the People”, the more the polling numbers are getting to be of historic proportion. This is what occurs when a government goes completely against the will of the people and the electorate retaliates at the ballot box.

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

As per The Weekly Standard, Bill Kristol stated on Fox News Sunday on August 8, 2010 when the GOP generic ballot lead was 6 points, “if that number holds, Republicans will pick up something like 60 seats.” What would 10% represent? Some ask whether the GOP is peaking too early; however, others know better. The trend is going in exactly the opposite direction. The economy is getting worse, the Obama blame game continues and they only answer from Democrats is to spend more money. The liberal MSM and Democrat spin meisters have nothing else at this point but to make claims of peaking too early. This is the tip of the iceberg, for Democrats it will get even worse.


Republicans also have a 25% point lead over Democrats on “Enthusiasm” according to Gallup as well. Think this is not important? One has to look no further than the recent Florida primaries where voters for the GOP turned out in mass over Democrats.

Rasmussen shows a 45% to 39% lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot.

Why are these numbers so frightening to Democrats? Every close race and undecided voter is most likely going to vote for the GOP candidate. What does Gallup say regarding the most recent Generic ballot poll …

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Now CNN Poll has Republicans Up Big in Midterm Advantage with Generic Congressional Ballot … Rasmussen As Well
  • Midterm Impending Democrat Doom … Republicans Jump to Historic Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot
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  • Republicans Back on Top in Gallup Poll Generic Ballot … Lead in Rasmussen Generic Poll As Well
  • CBS Poll: Majority of Likely Voters Say Their House Vote is a Referendum on Barack Obama … More Voting Against Obama Than For The One

  • Comments

    7 Responses to “Gallup Poll: Get Ready for the 2010 Midterm Political Tidal Wave & Tsunami … Republicans Up by Record 10% Over Democrats in Generic Ballot”

    1. Billy Hollis on August 31st, 2010 10:57 am

      “Some ask whether the GOP is peaking too early…”

      The post at QandO does *NOT* ask if the GOP is peaking too early, nor does it speculate that it is.

      Instead, it points out that some lazy leftist media person will likely invoke that theme before the election, based on a poll fluctuation. The post specifically says that the author (me) does not believe in the “peaking too early” phenomenon.

      I’d appreciate it if you would change your post to reflect what the reference actually said. Thanks.

    2. Dividist on August 31st, 2010 12:09 pm

      Impressive poll, but I am still dubious about taking the House. There is just no overestimating how difficult it is to flip the House. House incumbents(frequently aided by gerrymandered districts) enjoy extraordinarily high re-election rates. Even when voters tell pollsters they despise Congress in a generic poll like this, they’ll still vote for their specific representative who is often the conduit by which federal services are delivered or expedited to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in the district. House elections are almost always “local” (in the Tip O’Neill sense). In the almost 100 years since we have been been electing Senators directly (only since the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913) the House of Representatives has never flipped majorities unless the Senate flipped first or at the same time. If conventional wisdom is correct and the Republicans take the House but not the Senate, it would be an historic first… Soooo either the GOP takes both, or they take the Senate and fall just short on the House.

      My complete analysis here: 10 in ’10
      SM: Republicans will take the House.

    3. A Texas Grandfather on August 31st, 2010 1:18 pm

      Based on 6 points equal 60 seats in the house, 10 points could equal 100 seats.

      The real problem is going to be keeping the Democrats from stealing some elections. They did it for Al Franken and others (LBJ) with stuffed ballot boxes and suddenly found ballots in the back of an automobile.

    4. Scared Monkeys on August 31st, 2010 9:32 pm

      #1, it was not intended to presume that is what you stated. Dude, I actually am a reader of QandO and have been for years.

      Think you are kind of misuderstanding the link.

      Made a slight adjustment, Billy … we agree.

    5. super dave on September 1st, 2010 7:38 am


    6. More Liberal Hot Air … MSNBC Moonbat Ed Schultz Guarantees He Could Outdraw Glenn Beck’s Rally … “I guarantee you, I could do more than 300,000! It ain’t a big deal” | Scared Monkeys on September 1st, 2010 8:00 am

      [...] going to have their collective butts handed to them. Actually Ed, it is tea leaves like the recent Gallup poll where Republicans were up by a record 10% in the generic ballot. It is the tea leaves that even [...]

    7. Now CNN Poll has Republicans Up Big in Midterm Advantage with Generic Congressional Ballot … Rasmussen As Well | Scared Monkeys on September 6th, 2010 1:24 pm

      [...] one in a long line of disastrous “generic” Congressional polls. Recently Gallup had Republicans ahead of Democrats 51% to 41%, an all time record since Gallup had been conducting the poll. Now in addition to the CNN and [...]

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