A Tale of Two Gallup Polls and the one the media will never report …
Not only are poll numbers just a snap shot in time, they can be manipulated and presented in an manner that the media wishes to present them. However, in some cases we must take pause and take a real good look at the poll, its timing and the events that just took place. Thus is the case where the Gallup poll in the course of one day had Barack Obama leading John McCain 48% to 40%, while in another Gallup poll McCain was actually leading Obama by 4% points, 49%-45%. Barack Obama has had nothing but favorable press and still he finds himself behind.
THAT IS CORRECT … Republican candidate John McCain has a +4% leading in a Gallup poll among “likely voters.” However, the Gallup poll that always gets reported by the media is the one they take of “registered voters” where Obama leads. At one point Obama was ahead in both polls; however, that is no longer the case. This news is an obvious Pepto moment as the Obama campaign comes off their world wind tour of Europe and the Middle East only to find Obama losing ground badly among “likely” voters.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June. (USA Today)
Rasmussen is also reporting in his polls that Obama’s EU tour bounce is gone.
Since you can’t read it in the media, read it from the bloggers:
- Hot Air: Wow: McCain leads among likely voters in new Gallup poll; Update: Young voters sour on Obama?
- Patterico’s Pontification: Now Isn’t This Interesting: USA Today/Gallup — McCain +4 over Obama
- Ace of Spades: Surprise (Outlier) Poll: McCain Actually Leads Obama by 4, Among Likely Voters