McCain vs Obama … A Tale of Two Gallup Polls, Likely vs Registered Voters … McCain up by 4


A Tale of Two Gallup Polls and the one the media will never report …

Not only are poll numbers just a snap shot in time, they can be manipulated and presented in an manner that the media wishes to present them. However, in some cases we must take pause and take a real good look at the poll, its timing and the events that just took place. Thus is the case where the Gallup poll in the course of one day had Barack Obama leading John McCain 48% to 40%, while in another Gallup poll McCain was actually leading Obama by 4% points, 49%-45%. Barack Obama has had nothing but favorable press and still he finds himself behind.

THAT IS CORRECT … Republican candidate John McCain has a +4% leading in a Gallup poll among “likely voters.” However, the Gallup poll that always gets reported by the media is the one they take of “registered voters” where Obama leads. At one point Obama was ahead in both polls; however, that is no longer the case. This news is an obvious Pepto moment as the Obama campaign comes off their world wind tour of Europe and the Middle East only to find Obama losing ground badly among “likely” voters.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June. (USA Today)

Rasmussen is also reporting in his polls that Obama’s EU tour bounce is gone.

So why is it that the media only wants to show the polls favorable to Obama?

 Since you can’t read it in the media, read it from the bloggers:

  • Hot Air: Wow: McCain leads among likely voters in new Gallup poll; Update: Young voters sour on Obama?
  • Patterico’s Pontification: Now Isn’t This Interesting: USA Today/Gallup — McCain +4 over Obama
  • Ace of Spades: Surprise (Outlier) Poll: McCain Actually Leads Obama by 4, Among Likely Voters

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • McCain/Palin 2008 … The Polling Trends do not Lie … Polling Surge for McCain & Palin
  • Change You Can Believe In … McCain Takes Leads in Gallup Poll 46% – 44% after No Biden Bounce
  • Gallup Poll: Virtual Tie, Obama 44% – McCain 42% … Where be the Bounce?
  • Panic Time for Obama … McCain/Palin Gets Bounce and Poll Trending in their Favor (Gallup & Zogby)
  • Rut-Roh, More 2008 Obama Voters Switching Sides Than Those Who Voted for McCain in 2012 Presidential Election

  • Comments

    8 Responses to “McCain vs Obama … A Tale of Two Gallup Polls, Likely vs Registered Voters … McCain up by 4”

    1. Paul on July 29th, 2008 11:07 am

      Could you imagine McCain even having enough energy to run your local Mcdonalds. Seriously. Think about it next time your in line watching the Mcdonalds manager run around taking orders and shouting orders. McCain couldnt do it. So I ask You, how will McCain be president??? Looks as though the RNC got behind the wrong candidate and they will pay for it., Guess they should of let the primary season play out without trying to minupulate the outcome. My candidate lost, my vp isnt going to be on the ticket. Wow bummer. Good news is i think McCain is just about done, I wouldnt doubt the GOP ditch him at the last second and run a younger more charasmatic charachter. They could site his Cancer scare as the reason. I dont doubt that they will, Becuase he is becoming more unelectable by the day, with gaff after gaff. Did you see him knock all that stuff off the shelf at the supermarket. the video is at all the while barack obama is looking like an NBA super star, (arrogence and all) even taking time to stop and have a cigar break video at I mean really what is the GOP going to do. McCain cannot win at this point and we havnt even started the debates.

    2. reeuqasishub on July 29th, 2008 1:44 pm

      Who gives a rats @ss which one is ahead? All that matters is what happens in November and then it won’t matter much because neither is going to do what is best for the middle class working man. It’ll either be a happy day for the rich (McCain) or those in poverty (Obama). I’m about as enthusiastic as a snail about the upcoming election. The middle class is fading away, thanks to the shrub.

    3. flippy on July 29th, 2008 3:59 pm

      Yeah, the polls make little sense.

      One thing I am certain of is when there is a difference in the election outcome because people don’t vote, that is a sad thing.

    4. yoyo muffintop on July 29th, 2008 6:30 pm

      “Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that.”
      Homer Simpson

    5. brie. on July 30th, 2008 3:52 am

      What polls….has anyone contacted you…!!!

    6. dennisintn on July 30th, 2008 8:05 am

      #1. paul, if you have never heard of president franklin delano roosevelt, you really should read up on him. choosing a president on the basis of his running, hoop-shooting, and speech-making abilities, or hunk-appeal, is about as simplistic and immature as i can imagine.

    7. Scott on July 31st, 2008 5:27 am

      OK Paul…whatever….fact of the matter is the polls don’t lie; McCain has closed the gap. When it comes right down to it in November, “middle” America will not vote for Obama. Obama is a PUPPET of the Democratic Party, the Manchurian Candidate! Obama is of little substance. We have yet, yet I say, to hear specifics. You know why? Because the man can NOT read off script. I can’t wait for the debates because McCain will run circles around him. Why didn’t Obama take up McCain’s offer of town hall debates a month or so ago? Obama’s true character is coming out now; the flip-flopper, the arrogance and the shady characters in his past just like every other politician. The sad part is the liberal media holds this guy up likes he the next coming of Christ and will not by any means report anything negative in regards to the guy or anything good about the GOP, especially in regards to the surge working in Iraq, gas prices dropping steadily and the McCain surge in the polls.

      AMERICA will be a safer place with McCain as PRESIDENT!

    8. Frank W on August 21st, 2008 10:53 am

      Paul – - – Obama would have enough energy to run a McDonalds in fact that’s probably what he’ll be doing after he agrees to debate with McCain. LOL He’s falling back in the polls you know. I hope he doesn’t have his teleprompter go out during the debate. He could get mixed up on his empty promises. Hillary and Bill couldn’t get socialised heath care through. I don’t know how he expects to do it, he couldn’t even get any bills through as a senator. I just hope everybody wakes up at the convention and elects Hillary to run for president. Polls don’t mean anything that’s for sure. The congressional rating is 14% lower then Bush’s (28%) according to Gallup, and nobody cares about that.

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