It’s Halloween time, but Senate Democrats have more to fear than ghosts, goblins, witches and vampires … NT Times and WAPO predict Democrats are the Walking “political” Dead …
With just days to go before the 2014 midterm November 4th elections, two very liberal papers, the New York Times and Washington Post, are predicting a GOP Senate takeover. The NY Times predicts that there is a 69% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate. According to the Times, Republicans will win Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana, leaving the seven most competitive states below in question. The NY Times predicts that Democrats will win the senate races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas; however, the GOP will run the rest of the seats in play in Georgia, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado. If the New York Times is correct, the GOP will hold a 52-48 control of the Senate after the elections.
According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 69% chance of gaining a majority.
State-by-State Probabilities #
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.
However, if Democrats think that the NYT’s 69% chance of a GOP victory is bad … the WAPO is predicting a 95% chance of the Republican party taking back control of the US Senate.
The model’s factors fall into three categories:
1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election. We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.
2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the major-party vote from the election six years before, which is the incumbent’s share of the Democratic and Republican votes, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.
3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races. (After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House model. There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office.)
Question: The NY Times and WAPO have been among the two most liberal media outlets that have carried the water for Barack Obama and Democrats, why are they calling the election now for the GOP? Is it because they want to put out faux-news and give Republicans voters a false sense of security or is it because they see the handwriting on the wall and are trying to mantain some sort of credibility by finally reporting the truth?
Harry Reid literally begs for money as he sees his job of Democrat Senate Majority Leader slipping away. Just curious Dingy Harry, if you can triple one’s gift, you need money how? I have a deal for you, You can just double my donation of $0.00.
But I’m emailing once more because this moment is absolutely critical. I know you’re a busy person, but this is an absolute MUST-READ:
Our Final Weekend Get Out The Vote Push is on the chopping block: We’re still $1,389,071 short with 24 hours left.
If we don’t fill that budget gap, we’ll be forced to scale back our plans to mobilize 575,000 voters this weekend. These are voters who could determine the outcome of the whole Senate.
I’m begging for your help to close the gap IMMEDIATELY. If we fall short before the last end-of-month deadline tomorrow, our chance to keep the Senate gets a whole lot smaller.
Will you pitch in to the Final Weekend GOTV Push before the final deadline in 24 hours? We’ll triple-match your gift.
Other nightmarish 2014 US Senate predictions for Democrats. None of the pollsters are predicting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and Harry Reid (NV-D) will no longer be Senate Majority Leader.
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Obama Hits News Low with 40% Approval Rating … Only 33% Among Independents … Democrats in Serious Trouble
HEY AMERICA, HOW’S THAT HOPEY-CHANGEY STUFF WORKING OUT FOR YA?
According to the most recent WAPO-ABC News poll, Barack Obama has hit an all-time low with an approval rating at 40% and a 51% disapproval. Actually, it is curious as to why it is not even lower. Among Independents, Obama only has a 33% approval. Under Obama’s watch, everything is a colossal disaster. Nothing is going good in the United States or around the world.
The US economy is a floundering mess, illegal immigration, ISIS is on the rise and now we have the October surprise of Ebola in the United States. Barack Obama polls poorly on all major political issues as we are week’s ahead of the November midterm elections and early voting has begun in some states.
Can you say EPIC FAILURE!!!
Heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign, the political landscape continues to tilt in favor of the Republican Party, with President Obama’s overall approval rating at the lowest level of his presidency and GOP voters signaling greater likelihood than Democrats that they will cast ballots, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Americans are looking to November and beyond with dissatisfaction about the state of the country and the political leadership in Washington. Two-thirds say the country is seriously off-track. And while more than 6 in 10 say the president lacks a clear plan for governing, …
See all polling data HERE.
The overall job approval rating average is not much better for Obama. According to RCP, only 42.0% approve, while 52.4% disapprove.
Barack Obama and his political party are heading into the midterm elections in trouble. The president’s 40 percent job approval rating in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the lowest of his career – and the Democratic Party’s popularity is its weakest in polling back 30 years, with more than half of Americans seeing the party unfavorably for the first time.
The Republican Party is even more unpopular. But benefitting from their supporters’ greater likelihood of voting, GOP candidates nonetheless hold a 50-43 percent lead among likely voters for U.S. House seats in the Nov. 4 election.
Posted October 16, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
Approval Rating, Barack Obama, Community Agitator, Epic Fail, Iraq, Islamist, Jihad, Leading from Behind, Lost in Smallness, Mexico, Misleader, Polls, Russia, Scandal, Terrorism, The Lying King, US National Security, WAPO-ABC News, War on Terror, West Africa | 5 comments
ABC News/WAPO Poll Gives Barack Obama Poor Grade on Handling Crisis of Illegals Coming into the United States Over Mexican Border
Imagine that, President Barack Obama gets low marks on yet another important key issue.
A recent ABC News/WAPO poll gives Obama extremely poor marks on dealing with illegals crossing the US-Mexican border as only 33% approve of his handling of the situation while 58% of all respondents disapprove and 60% of registered voters. How could anyone agree with Obama’s handling of this when he thought going to a fundraiser in Texas was more important than seeing the crisis for himself, first hand?
It’s one of the hottest national debates this summer: What to do about the influx of unaccompanied and undocumented children from Central America who are crossing from Mexico into the U.S.
A new national poll indicates that a majority of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s short term remedy, but most give the President and his GOP critics in Congress a thumbs down on how they’re handling the crisis along the country’s southern border.
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Keystone XL Pipeline Project Overwhelmingly Favored by Americans But Barack Obama Against Jobs
Once again Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong wide of the American people and refusing to approve a project that will create jobs for “We the People”.
According to a recent WAPO-ABC News poll, an overwhelming majority of Americans are in favor of supporting the contraction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline between Canada and the United States. 65% of Americans approve of the job creating pipeline project, while only 22% are opposed. An amazing 85% say that the Keystone XL oil pipeline project will create jobs; however, Obama continues to stonewall the project so to pander to his environmental wacko constituents. Republicans, Independents and Democrats are in favor of building the pipeline that will provide a significant economic benefit to the US, 82%, 65% and 51%, respectively. It is only moonbat, liberal Democrats that oppose the it.
Americans support the idea of constructing the Keystone XL oil pipeline between Canada and the United States by a nearly 3 to 1 margin, with 65 percent saying it should be approved and 22 percent opposed, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The findings also show that the public thinks the massive project, which aims to ship 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta and the northern Great Plains to refineries on the Gulf Coast, will produce significant economic benefits. Eighty-five percent say the pipeline would create a significant number of jobs, with 62 percent saying they “strongly” believed that to be the case.
That so many Americans back the pipeline, even with environmental risks, highlights the quandary facing President Obama and his top aides as they weigh whether to approve the proposal.
Support for Keystone is highest among Republicans, with 82 percent backing it. But majorities of independents and Democrats also want it approved, at 65 and 51 percent, respectively. Only self-identified liberal Democrats lean against, 47 percent to 36 percent.
But even though Obama continually says his primary focus to to create jobs for Americans, he does just the opposite. Obama wastes tax payers money on his failed backing of green energy policy like Solyndra, Fisker Automotive, ABC123, and Solar Trust just to mention a few. All he has to do is simply saying “yes”,instead he refuses to allow a job creating project to go forward. Obama’s war on oil is more important than jobs for the American people. Instead Obama would rather see Americans on food stamps and welfare, than working jobs for evil oil.
A recent State Department assessment said the project would create 1,950 jobs for a two-year period, after which it would generate 50 permanent jobs. But most people see it as a larger economic boon, the poll shows.
Posted March 8, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
Barack Obama, Chicago-Style Politics, Democrats, Divider in Chief, Economy, Energy, envirowackos, Epic Fail, Jobs, Keystone XL Pipeline, Liberals, Misleader, Moonbats, Obamanation, Obamanomics, Oil, Polls, Progressives, Radicals, Unemployment, WAPO-ABC News | 3 comments
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Barack Obama Job Approval Rating 55% Disapprove, 43% Approve … He’s Fallen & He Can’t Get Up!!!
2013 is not over yet and neither are President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers falling … He’s Fallen and he can’t Get Up!!!
The Emperor has no close, and no approval ratings either. The most recent WAPO-ABC News poll is out and it is not good news for Barack Obama or Democrats. Across the board on key issues that are important to Americans like the economy, handling the countries problems and trustworthiness, Obama has either lost significant ground or the lead all-together to the GOP. Obama’s polling numbers are in disarray because the American people, who once gave him the benefit of the doubt, now see that he cannot be trusted. Obama has wasted all this time and lied about Obamacare, rather than focusing on the economy and jobs as he had promised as well.
Check out the comparisons from just a year ago … Had America known now what they should have been made aware of in 2012, Barack Obama would have lost the 2012 presidential election in a landslide. Obama can thank his lucky stars that the US Constitution does not provide for recall elections for the president.
Pic- Washington Post, read full story HERE
President Obama is ending his fifth year in office matching the worst public approval ratings of his presidency, with record numbers of Americans saying they disapprove of his job performance and his once-hefty advantages over Republicans in Congress eroded in many areas, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
His position is all the more striking when compared with his standing a year ago, as he was preparing for his second inauguration after a solid reelection victory. That high note proved fleeting as the president faced a series of setbacks, culminating in the botched rollout of his Affordable Care Act two months ago.
Obama’s standing is of particular concern to congressional Democrats as they look to next year’s midterm elections. Parties that control the White House suffer — sometimes significantly — in midterm campaigns when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent.
On several key measures, Obama has lost significant ground to his Republican opponents in Congress. On the question of who is seen as better able to handle the country’s main problems, Obama and Republicans are tied at 41 percent. A year ago, the president’s advantage was 15 points and at this stage in 2010 it was still five points.
Obama also has lost the lead he enjoyed on who could better deal with the economy. Today Republicans are at 45 percent to Obama’s 41 percent.
Any lead that Barack Obama and Democrats had over the GOP have all but eroded in 2013.
Posted December 17, 2013 by Scared Monkeys
#You Lie, 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, Divider in Chief, Economy, Epic Fail, Ethics, Government, Healthcare, Healthcare.gov, Hope and Change, Job Approval, Misleader, Misrepresentation, Obamacare, Obamanation, Politics, Polls, The Lying King, Transparency, WAPO-ABC News, We the People, You Can Keep Your Insurance | one comment