WaPo/ABC Poll Shows Obama Ahead 50% – 47%, With +6D Sampling

WaPo/ABC Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47%, BUT …

Once again we are presented with a poll that in order to give President Barack Obama a lead, the poll had to over-sample democrats by +6. The partisan breakdown is 35% Democrat, 32% independent, and 29% Republican. Thus, in order for this to be remotely possible Obama would have to capture lighting in a bottle and recreate the 2008 voter turnout o+7D that was a once in a life time event. In other words, fat chance.

One thing that will come from a post 2012 election is that polling will be put front and center and forever questioned as being credible or partisan.

Mitt Romney Now Leads Obama in ABC-WAPO Tracking Poll 50% to 47%

Don’t look now but Mitt Romney just hit the 50% mark in another poll.

According to the most recent ABC-WAPO poll, Romney now leads Obama 50% to 47%.  Likely voters now pick Romney over Obama in trust to handle the economy by 52% to 43%. All this even with a poll sampling of +4 D.

Full poll results can be found HERE.

Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama – Romney’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date.

The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of sampling error in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, and their individual support levels have not significantly changed. But the momentum on underlying issues and attributes is Romney’s.

For those pundits who said debates do not matter could never have been more wrong. According to poll results, Romney has a huge lead with Independents and were heavily swayed by Romney’s debate performance.

Most strikingly, Romney’s advanced to 57 percent support among independents. They’re a changeable group, less rooted in partisan predispositions, so their eventual preferences – and their turnout – are uncertain. But they’re key to Romney’s current fortunes; he’s improved among independents by 9 points in the past week.

The debates are one apparent reason. By a broad 47-10 percent, independents say the debates left them with a better rather than a worse impression of Romney. In the same group, by contrast, just 17 percent say their impression of Obama improved – and 26 percent say it got worse.

Romney also has broken the 50% barrier in the Rasmussen and Gallup polls as well.

WAPO-ABC Tracking Poll: Mitt Romney 49%, Barack Obama 48%

Slip, Sliding Away …

Don’t look now but Mitt Romney just took the lead over Barack Obama in the WAPO-ABC presidential tracking poll 49% to 48%. More importantly, when individuals were asked about the economy,  the most important issue of the day, 50% of likely voters say they trust Mitt Romney with the economy, while 45% sided with the president.

The new Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll has 49 percent of likely voters supporting Republican Mitt Romney, and 48 percent President Obama, a seesawing result that shows the continued narrowness of the contest.

The change from yesterday’s Post-ABC tracking poll, which showed the race 49 to 48 percent the other way, is statistically insignificant, and the numbers do not include any public reaction to the third and final presidential debate Monday night. Almost all of Monday’s interviews were conducted before the debate started.

Does Obama read the polling data? He most certainly does. As reported at the WAPO, Barack Obama sent an email to supports,“I don’t want to lose this election.” Get used to the notion Barack, come November 6, We the People will be adding you to the unemployment list.

Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, Romney Within One … and Romney 52% to Obama’s 46% in 7 Swing States

The WAPO-ABC News Tracking poll has Mitt Romney within one point at at 49% to 48%.  However, once again one has to question the poll sampling. This polls used a D34/R29/I33 or a +5D sampling. However, with all the suspect sampling, in the seven states designated as “toss-ups” by The Washington Post plus Ohio, it’s Romney 52% to Obama’s 46%.

But Romney now rivals Obama when it comes to dealing with international affairs and terrorism, leveling the playing field heading into Monday’s debate on foreign policy. Romney also runs about evenly with the president as voters’ pick who is the better commander-in-chief.

International affairs generally, and handling terrorism specifically, were once Obama strong points against the former Massachusetts governor, but voters now divide about evenly between the two. At the end of September, Obama held an 11 percentage point lead over Romney as the one voters trusted on terrorism — and killing Osama bin Laden is a mainstay on the Obama campaign trail. But now, 47 percent side with Obama on the issue, 46 percent with Romney.

Barack Obama Tanking in Gallup Poll, Romney 52% – Obama 45%

Drip, drip, drip …

WOW, the 7 day rolling average Gallup poll has Mitt Romney up by 7 points over President Barack Obama, 52% to 45%. The gap is widening and with a good debate this coming Monday, Romney could finish Obama off once and for all and break the election wide open.

It would appear that Obama just showing up and doing better than the first debate, which was not hard to do, has not affected the polling. Romney is starting to separate himself.

Hot Air reminds us also that Rasmussen now has Romney up by 2% over Obama in their tracking poll. It appears that their individuals polled were not impressed by Obama’s debate performance either.

Interestingly, Romney’s 49% is solid with or without leaners.  Without leaners, Obama only gets to 46%. Among those “certain” to vote, Romney leads 46/44.  Republicans now have an eight-point advantage on enthusiasm, 83/75, with independents nearly as enthused as Democrats at 72%.

Romney is starting to see a lot of polls in his favor as seen at Real Clear Politics. This is interesting, ABC News touts the Romney lead in the Gallup poll and in the process references their own recent poll that where an ABC/WAPO poll had Obama ahead of Romney 49% to 46%. Funny they should bring this up because in order to give Obama a three point lead over Romney, the hacks at ABC/WAPO had to provide a +9D sampling.  Yea, that is believable. In Obama’s once in a life time election in 2008 Democrats  had a +7 turnout. So ABC/WAPO thinks that Democrats are going to turn out even more? Not likely.

901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?

             Democrat   Republican   Independent
10/13/12 LV     35          26           33

President Barack Obama’s Popularity Wanes, Especially Among Woman, Now Negative 46-50%.

RUT-ROH BARACK … Women are turning on Obama.

President Barack Obama goes into the Democrat National Convention on a polling low as his popularity wanes. Only 47%  of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7% from April. The most startling data is the fact that Obama has lost all of his popularity among woman and is now underwater with them. So much for Romney’s gender gap. So much for Obama and the Democrats claiming that the GOP is waging a war on women. Looks like it has backfired.

Full poll results HERE.

Barack Obama approaches his nomination for a second term with the lowest pre-convention personal popularity of an incumbent president in ABC News/Washington Post polls since the 1980s. He’s also at his lowest of the year among registered voters, with trouble among women.

Just 47 percent of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7 percentage points from his recent peak in April, while 49 percent rate him unfavorably. He’s numerically underwater in this group for the first time since February.

The decline has occurred entirely among women registered voters – from 57-39 percent favorable-unfavorable in April to a numerically negative 46-50 percent now. That’s Obama’s lowest score among women voters – a focus of recent political positioning – in ABC/Post polls since he took office.

As stated at Blue Crab Boulevard, isn’t it fitting that Obama is now underwater, so many Americans mortgages are under water and the Dems at the DNC is at this moment showing a tribute to Ted Kennedy. Someone else who left someone underwater. OUCH!!!


New Majorly Democrat Skewed (+9) Washington Post Poll Has Romney Ahead of Obama, 47% to 46% …

More media bias in action … WAPO skews poll and Obama still cannot beat Romney …

Great new America, a new Washington Post/ABC poll has Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama 47% to 46%. Why is a poll that has Romney only ahead by 1% over Obama great? Because the poll is so skewed to Democrats (+9) that is can hardly be considered credible. That being said, Romney still leads Obama. How bad is that for Obama and his minions that the incumbent President Obama cannot beat Romney in a +9 sampled poll, D31/R22/I39.

The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama’s handling of the nation’s flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July.

Full poll results.

Check out a couple of questions from the poll, that should cause great concern and panic for Barack Obama, especially with a terribly skewed poll sampling. Now imagine what the poll would look like if the sampling was even D+3 or even and more than 71% considered the economy as a major factor in their vote and +54% considered him failing in his job with the economy?

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president?

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy?

Q: Will Obama’s handling of the economy be a major factor in your vote, a minor factor, or not a factor?

Q: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:

Democrat 31%
Republican 22%
Independent 39%

This is shameful on the part of the WAPO. In a once in a life time, elect the first black American, GWB fatigue, lame GOP McCain candidate election in 2008, Democrats came to the polls by +7 over the GOP.  That is hardly going to happen again in 2012. But some how the WAPO samples the polling data for a one on one match up with Obama and Romney at +9.

I am going to disagree with the many political pundits, barring some unforeseen issue, I do not see the election in November as close as many have predicted. The mood of the country is ill with Obama, his policies and the economy. They are tired of being tired.

Romney and Ryan also get a bump in Ohio as reported at the WAPO.

GOP gets bump in Ohio: A new Columbus Dispatch Poll in Ohio shows both the presidential race and Senate race are essentially tied.

Romney tops Obama by less than one-quarter of 1 percent (each rounds to 45 percent), while Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) by just less than 1 percent (each rounds to 44 percent).

Hope & Change? Barack Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue Collar Men to 28% … Issue with Independents as Well

Yet another record for President Barack Obama. As reported at the National Journal, Barack Obama sinks to historic lows among white blue color workers. According to the Quinnipiac and ABC/WAPO polls, Obama has sunk to 29% and 28% respectively among this demographic. Wow, is it possible that Obama could have polled worse than Jimmy Carter … Yes he can!!!

The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him.

Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without a college education. But in these latest surveys, he has fallen to a level of support among them lower than any Democratic nominee has attracted in any election since 1980, according to an upcoming National Journal analysis of exit polls from presidential elections.

Though pollsters at each organization caution that the margins of error are substantial when looking at subgroups such as this, each poll shows erosion within that margin of error for Obama with these working-class white men. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama attracting just 29 percent of non-college white men, down from 32 percent in their most recent national survey in April, according to figures provided by Douglas Schwartz, April Radocchio and Ralph Hansen of Quinnipiac. The ABC/Washington Post survey found Obama drawing just 28 percent of non-college white men, down from 34 percent in their May survey, according to figures provided by ABC Pollster Gary Langer. Romney drew 56 percent of the non-college white men in Quinnipiac and 65 percent in the ABC/Washington Post survey.

But we all know what Obama refers to these folks as … racists.

However, Obama may have even more significant issues to deal with Independent voters. Obama finds himself  trailing Romney badly with Indies which makes this poll some what suspect as how can Obama be so far behind with Independent voters in the ABC-WAPO poll and yet it be a tie? Hmm?

Digging into the crosstabs of our ABC/Washington Post poll it’s clear that Obama has a significant problem with independent voters. On every measure, independents are significantly more disappointed with the president and more open to a Mitt Romney message.

While 45 percent of voters overall say they approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, just 37 percent of independents believe that. Obama has a 12 point advantage among all voters on the issue of “who has presented a clearer plan for dealing with the economy – Obama or Romney?” But among independents that flips to an eight point advantage for Romney.

ABC-WAPO Poll has Presidential Race Tied at 47% to 47% Between Romney and Obama … But Obama is he’s losing swing voting independents by a record 14%

Its a dead heat according to the most recent ABC-WAPO poll between President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney. However, those polled disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy (54%-44%), health care (52%-41%) and immigration issues(52%-38%).  However, here is no most significant aspect of the poll that makes one wonder how is this a tie? How does one lose in such key issues and demographics and it still be a tie? Is the sampling from non-swing states and solid blue one’s counted too much in the sampling?

While most Americans continue to disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, that’s not his only problem. More than half fault him on health care and immigration as well. Sixty-three percent say the country’s headed in the wrong direction, an unhelpful view for an incumbent. And among groups, he’s losing swing-voting independents by a record 14 percentage points.

Check out the full results HERE.

Economic discontent and substantial dissatisfaction with Barack Obama’s performance in office are keeping Mitt Romney competitive in the presidential race – but not by enough of a margin to overcome Obama’s stronger personal profile. The result: A dead heat in voter preferences at the midsummer stage, with the prospect of an epic battle ahead.

While most Americans continue to disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, that’s not his only problem. More than half fault him on health care and immigration as well. Sixty-three percent say the country’s headed in the wrong direction, an unhelpful view for an incumbent. And among groups, he’s losing swing-voting independents by a record 14 percentage points.

Yet Romney faces significant challenges of his own in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. His supporters are more apt to be against Obama than explicitly for Romney – a “negative” vote that can be less compelling than an affirmative one. His supporters are less strongly enthusiastic than Obama’s. While Obama is vulnerable on the economy, Romney is weakly rated on having offered a clear economic plan. And Obama leads on a range of personal attributes – empathy, standing up for his beliefs and, especially, basic likeability.

ABC/WAPO Poll Uses Questionable Sample to Have Obama Lead Romney 49% to 46% … Under Samples GOP by 10% … NBC/WSJ Skewed Sample as Well

All polls are not created equal … in fact some are just plain disingenuous. 

The most recent ABC/Washington Post poll has President Barack Obama ahead of GOP challenger Mitt Romney, 49% to 46%. Good news for Obama, right? Well, if you like faux polls it is. When will the liberal MSM ever learn that falsifying poll results serves no purpose on election day? The WAPO goes on to say that Obama and Romney are in a dead heat on the economy, Really?

The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status.

Voters are evenly divided between Obama and Romney on the question of who could kick-start the economy and also are split on job creation, with 46 percent siding with the president and 45 percent with Romney.

OK, let’s go inside the sampling polling numbers. The full results of the poll can be seen HERE.

The ABC/WAPO poll used the following model sampling: Democrat 32%, Republican 22% and Independents 38%. The exit polling in the 2008 Presidential election was Democrat 39%, Republican 32% and Independents 29%. However, there was a huge change in the 2010 election as Democrats and Obama took a shellacking. Interestingly enough, 2010 exit polling had those voting at Democrat 35%, Republican 35% and Independents 29%.  So the trend is moving to be even rather than Democrats with a large sampling lead. However, that did not stop the WAPO and ABC to use an overinflated Democrat sample to give Obama a more than questionable poll results. The poll over-sampled Democrats to Republicans by 10%, yet Obama only leads Romney by 3%.

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