Is Romney Having a Late Surge in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota?

MITTMENTUM …

There have been so many polls and so many divergent polling models that have oversampled democrats that something is going to have to give come election day. The voter turnout will make the difference and it is hard to believe that democrats will come out for Obama as they did in 2008. Romney has the enthusiasm on his side. They question is whether it will be enough to carry him over the finish line.

That being said, there appears to be a late surge for Mitt Romney just two days before the 2012 Presidential election. Recent polls  from Rasmussen have Romney up in Colorado, 50%-47%.

A Pittsburgh Tribune poll out today has the race a tie in the Keystone state. TIED, PENNSYLVANIA? Is this the reason why Romney bout ads and is going to Pennsylvania in the days heading up to the election.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.

We had previously discussed the rather surprising poll out of Michigan.

The battleground state of Ohio has conflicting polls. The Hill had Romney over Obama 49% – 47%. The Columbus Dispatch has their poll going to Obama 50% to 48%.  However, the poll sampling is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 21% independent.

The Gateway Pundit has a list of many positive polls for GOP Presidential challenger Romney that could sweep him to victory. The PJ Tatler says that Romney has “mittmentum” in in PA, MI and even NY!

And now for the unheard of, in deep blue Minnesota, among likely voters Romney is actually leading Obama, 47% to 46%. Really folks if Obama is not going to win sold blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin by double digits, he has a real problem.

Obama in Trouble …Obama Campaign Walking Away From Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado

Is Barack Obama giving up and reading the Romney handwriting on the wall in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado? As stated at Hot Air, one has to look way down in the article to find this gem of info  that is the most significant part of the entire piece.

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

As Hot Air stated, is Team Obama doing electoral triage? Has Romney’s surge in so many battleground states and in states that were supposed to be lean Obama that it is stretching Obama’s resources? Is Obama’s vulnerability in so many states coming back to haunt him? It would appear that Obama may be redrawing his fire line.

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.

How Will Unemployment Affect the Vote in 2012 … Real Unemployment Reaches 20% In 7 Colorado Counties

COLORADO, ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO. OBAMANOMICS HAS FAILED COLORADO …

As reported at the Colorado Observer, Colorado’s official unemployment rate is 8.2%; however, the “real unemployment” rate has reached 20% in seven Colorado counties. Making matters worse, it is the first time in y years that the official Colorado rate surpassed the national unemployment rate. The counties with such massive real unemployment are Costilla County at 23.56%, Pueblo 20.09%, Montrose 20.62%, Fremont 19.66%, Huerfano 21.78%, Archuleta 19.97% and Dolores at 19.85%.

In seven counties in Colorado unemployed individuals are close to or exceeding 20% of the population, a letter from the Chief Economist of CDLE to the U.S. Department of Agriculture says.

The letter, obtained through the Colorado Open Records Act, was sent August 29 as required by federal law. According to the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act, the Colorado Labor Department is required to certify counties where the “Not Employed Rate” surpasses 19.5%.

The “Not Employed Rate” is defined as “the percentage of individuals over the age of 18 who reside within the community and who are ready, willing and able to be employed but are unable to find employment as determined by the State Department of Labor.”

Ranking highest was Costilla County at 23.56 percent. The list runs from larger counties like Pueblo (20.09%), Montrose (20.62%) and Fremont (19.66%) to smaller populations like Huerfano (21.78%), Archuleta (19.97%) and Dolores (19.85%).

The unemployment rate in Colorado in 2008 was 4.8%. Barack Obama won Colorado in the 2008 Presidential election 54% to 45%.

With such real unemployment affecting those in Colorado, one really has to speculate as to how this will affect voting in the 2012 Presidential election as Colorado is considered a battle ground state. Currently RCP has Obama ahead in the averaging of polls; however, Rasmussen has Romney up by 2%. It’s hard to imagine that individuals would vote for an incumbent President whose economic policies have failed a state so badly.