2014 Wisconsin Governor’s Race: Final Pre-Election Marquette Law School Poll Has Scott Walker (R) leading Leading Mary Burke 50% to 43%
With a week to go before the 2014 midterm elections, the final pre-election Marquette Law School Poll has Republican Gov. Scott Walker leading his Democrat challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43%. In the final days heading inti the election, it would appear the support is trending toward Walker as a previous Marquette Law School Poll conducted October 9-12, found the race tied among likely voters at 47%. As in most all elections, especially midterm ones, party voter turnout will be the key.
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor’s race. Another 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say that they are certain to vote in the November election.
Among registered voters in the poll, Walker receives 46 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else.
“Shifting turnout intentions have provided most of the dynamics of the race this fall,” said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. “While the results among all registered voters have varied between a tie and a 3-point Walker edge, the likely-voter results have ranged from a 2-point Burke advantage to the current 7-point Walker lead.”
According to RCP average polling Walker leads by 2% and trending up.
There is more than one factor behind the pro-Walker tilt in the new survey.
First, Republicans are expressing more certainty than Democrats about voting. In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats say they are certain to vote, reflecting a potential turnout gap. As a result, likely voters in Marquette’s new poll are a more Republican group than likely voters in its last survey.
Second, there is a sizable shift toward Walker among independents, who have bounced around in the polling. Independents were tied among likely voters two weeks ago but preferred Walker 52% to 37% in the latest poll.
Third, there is some decline in Burke’s image. Among registered voters, 38% view Burke favorably while 45% view her unfavorably. Among likely voters, 39% view her favorably while 49% view her unfavorably. Until now, Burke’s “positive” and “negative” ratings have roughly paralleled each other as she has become better known.