WAPO Poll: Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli Early Lead Over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia Governor’s Race, 46% – 41%

 

Six months before election day in the Commonwealth of Virginia and according to a recent WAPO poll, Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has an early lead over former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliff for the Virginia Governor’ race, 46% to 41%.  Cuccinelli leads among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters certain to cast a ballot.  Cuccinelli is up in the race because he has overwhelming support from the GOP base due to his opposition work against Obamacare. Among all registered voters,  Cuccinelli is backed by 95 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of conservatives and 62 percent among white men. In contrast, compared with Obama’s presidential win seven months ago, McAuliffe is badly underperforming among key Democratic constituencies.

Full polling data can be found HERE.

Six months before Election Day, Cuccinelli (R) has a slender 46 to 41?percent edge over McAuliffe (D) among all Virginia voters and a significant 51 to 41?percent lead among those who say they’re certain to cast ballots in November. But those numbers may change before then: The poll found that barely 10 percent say they are following the campaign “very closely” and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.

With Virginia’s evolution into a swing state, the race is drawing intense scrutiny as the nation’s lone competitive November matchup so far. McAuliffe has not been able to assemble the coalition that has led Democrats to statewide victories. President Obama prevailed in 2008 and 2012, and Democratic U.S. Sens. Mark Warner and Timothy M. Kaine won in recent years after running as consensus-building moderates and driving the base turnout.

I cannot see Ken Cuccinelli losing to McAuliffe. Then again I cannot even begin to understand how this state voted for Barack Obama in 2012. It is way too early to handicap this, but in an off, off year election with a floundering economy and Obama’s approval rating hitting the skids as a lame duck president. A jazzed up Republican base could push Ciccinelli into the Governor’s mansion.



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