Can Scott Brown Hang on to US Senate Seat in Heavily Democrat Massachusetts over Warren … Kimball Political Consulting Poll: Brown 49% – Warren 47%


In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 4 to 1, can GOP US Senator Scott Brown defeat liberal Democrat challenger Pocahontas Elizabeth Warren? Many polls have Brown behind; however, a recent Kimball Political Consulting poll has Brown ahead 49% to 47%. Interestingly enough Brown attacks 61% of the Independent vote and 21% of the Democrat vote. Will Obama have a coattail effect in Massachusetts or will voters not turn out in the numbers that they did in 2008?As The Weekly Standard reminds us that this is the second poll, Boston Globe poll, in a week that has the race tighter than many presume.

Scott Brown is hardly a conservative Republican; however, Warren is as liberal as it gets. It shall be telling which way the Bay State goes in their decision for representation in the US Senate.

Senator Scott Brown holds a 2 point advantage of Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Kimball Political Consulting poll. The survey stands in contrast to this week’s Suffolk University poll showing Warren holding a 7 point lead but mirrors the results of a Boston Globe poll from last weekend.

Brown captures 49% of the vote with Warren at 47% of “likely” voters. Kimball has done a series of tracking polls on this race since August with Warren taking her first lead (48% to 46%) in mid-October.

The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message, is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown’s blistering attacks on Warren’s heritage and her legal representation took time to create the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren’s unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1 it appears Brown’s strategy to use high profile Democrat endorsements has worked, with Brown taking 21% of the Democrat vote.  Brown is also able to capture 61% of the Independent vote to Warren’s 34%.

Hot Air has a list of all the important hotly contested US Senate races including those in Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Dakota, among others.

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Another Poll Positive for Senator Brown (MA-R): UMass Lowell/Herald Poll has Brown Leading Warren 49% to 48%
  • MASS US Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown Has Lead in Another Poll over Democrat Elizabeth Warren 49% to 43% … PPP Poll Has Brown Up by 5%
  • Democrat Strategy in Massachusetts for 2012 … Ask Vickie Kennedy Run for Teddy’s Old US Senate Seat, Again
  • MA Senate Race:Public Policy Poll Has Brown Up by 5% Points Over Coakley
  • Republican Senator Scott Brown Out-polls Democrats John Kerry & Barack Obama in Boston Globe Poll

  • Comments

    7 Responses to “Can Scott Brown Hang on to US Senate Seat in Heavily Democrat Massachusetts over Warren … Kimball Political Consulting Poll: Brown 49% – Warren 47%”

    1. leader on November 3rd, 2012 10:45 am

      talk about believing an outlier poll

      Scott Brown is TOAST

      BTW…. Interesting how both of Mitt’s “home states” aren’t voting for him. Mass he will lose by 30 points ….

      the “blue state” argument doesn’t fly….as he ran against a repub when he became Governor. Mass knows a liar when they see one

      Took our state to the bottom as far as creating jobs!..Facts are facts
      SM: Why don’t you come back to the real world. BTW, Romney is not from Mass, he was only their Gov.

      I cannot even remember the last time a Republican won the state of Massachusetts. Please, spare me your BS. There are fewer states that are more liberal than Taxachusetts.

      However, they vote quite differently when it comes to their Governors and referendums. Sorry, but I am from New England, I think I know a little bit about NE politics.

      As for losing by 30, you have no idea what you are talking about. Obama won MA in 2008 by 26%, he will not win by a greater amount than that as Obama is polling lower in nearly 100% of states he won in 2008. Romney will lose by 15-18% most likely. However, no one would even think he had a chance there except for a panicked liberal.

    2. Ronald J. Ward on November 3rd, 2012 3:50 pm

      Just a few weeks ago I was arguing here of the overall snap shots of top polling. I was told that Rasmussen was it, the only one, the “gold” of posters and accordingly, if Rasmussen didn’t say it, it had no merit.

      Now, wa la, it’s as if Scott Rasmussen is some unknown and we now should look at the Kimball Political Consulting Poll who just so happens to support your agenda. Rasmussen on the other hand, shows Brown as losing 52% to 47%, a figure that’s also consistent with most other pollsters.

      You interestingly reference Realclearpolitics to support your argument but as I recall, you dismissed their credibility when I argued their findings.

      I foresee Warren winning at 55%. That’s just my guess.

      Obama will take 291 electoral votes. That’s giving Romney FL, NC, and VA. Give him the next 3 closest CO,IA, and NH and Obama still has 271. This folks, is simple math.
      SM: Sorry if you don’t agree with posting, then again you are not on the Editorial board of SM. Thank God for that.

      First of all this is the second poll within a week that had Brown with a lead, that would be news and a potential trend. Second, your electoral count is nothing more than your opinion.

      Your math is going to get a bit fuzzy when Obama loses Ohio and Wisconsin. What you, pollsters and Democrats are not computing is the enthusiasm gap. Obama had it in 2008 because of Bush fatigue, a poor GOP candidate and Obama’s “hope and change” as well as voting in the first black president.

      In 2012 that is all gone. Obama has failed in his first term miserably. Obama has admitted that he cannot affect change from the inside. He also stated if he did not fix the economy in 3 years it would be a one term proposition.

      Nothing Obama is doing inspires hope, not even for Democrats. It is a role reversal of 2008. That is hardly difficult to understand or see. One can see with their own eyes that Obama is no longer capturing the imagination of America. Gone are the the bumper stickers plastering cars, gone are the Obama property signs, gone is the positive Obama campaign and most importantly … gone is the roaring, huge crowds.

    3. Tamikosmom on November 3rd, 2012 4:43 pm

      O/T Kinda

      Tearful girl ‘tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney’
      Posted: Oct 31, 2012 9:21 PM ET


    4. leader on November 4th, 2012 12:36 am

      By your own “gold standard” Romney is not winning MI

      He isn’t winning OHIO

      and he sure doesn’t seem to be winning wi

      and mass…..
      SM: When multiple polls start trending in another direction, guess what … its time to look at them and examine what’s going on. The polls might be more current, something might have occurred to change opinion, or voters might be breaking at the last moment.

      I do not agree with RCP as I do not believe that bias polls should be averaged in with one’s more credible.

    5. Bill B on November 4th, 2012 5:56 am

      I cn’t believe this is even a close race. Warren is such a loon. You could put her in the same room as Pelosi, Boxer, Waxman and there would be a fight over who gets to keep the water pitcher sitting in front of them. Nothing ever gets done with these kind of people in charge.

    6. Tamikosmom on November 4th, 2012 11:14 am

      I cn’t believe this is even a close race.

      5. Bill B on November 4th, 2012 5:56 am


      Considering minimal research would have revealed Barack Obama’s past socialist/Marxist/Islamic associations … socialist/Marxist/Islamic associations that/who without a doubt were influencial in shaping Obama’s political worldview … creating his vision for America .. it still amazes my son’s capital “C” Conservative American in-laws that this guy was elected to the highest official in the land in 2008.

      After four years of policies and Executive Orders that define perfectly Obama’s Socialist/Marxist ideology … four years of appeasing Islam within and without of the borders of the United States … THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS VIRTUALLY A TIE? In other words … Barack Obama is thisclose to be be elected to another term. WHY?

      Considering the left wing bias of the major media networks … the major media networks that are in reality mouthpieces upholding the present administration … maybe for the sake of the Republic … Barack Obama’s ideology that goes far beyond “liberism” should have been more CLEARLY defined from the Republican platform during the campaign.

      Ronald Reagan – 40th President of the USA (1981-1989)
      “Back in 1927, an American socialist, Norman Thomas, six times candidate for President on the Socialist Party ticket, said that the American people would never vote for socialism but he said under the name of liberalism the American people would adopt every fragment of the socialist program.”

    7. leader on November 4th, 2012 1:06 pm

      BYE BYE Mittens

      Of the 77 states with at least three late polls, the winner was called correctly in 74 cases.
      SM: All bets are off when it comes to the do and say anything to get Obama to win.

      Its all going to some down to who votes and Romney by all accounts has the enthusiasm on his side.

      One thing that will come out of this is that people may never believe polls again as they are bias.

      Just curious. What are you going to do when Romney wins?

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