RSSFinal CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac Poll in OH, FL, VA show Obama up, But … Sampling Skewed
Another bogus poll Gives Obama the lead…
With just five days to go before the 2012 Presidential election, the final CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac poll is out and it has Barack Obama in the lead in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Pie in the sky sampling gives Obama lead in poll of three swing states.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.
However, not so fast. The small Obama lead was a result of questionable over-sampling of Democrats. As stated by Hot Air, at least the poll is consistent in their over-sampling. The CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac polls used the following sampling, FL: 37D/30R/29I, OH: 37D/29R/30I, VA: 35D/27R/35I. The +7D in Florida, +8D in Ohio and +8D in Virginia os greater than the 2008 one in a life time wave election of Obama in 2008. No one thinks that Obama will find lighting in a bottle and recreate 2008. So why does this poll them skew the sample as if Obama will?
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.
The PJ Tatler has more on the under-sampling of Republicans in polls in order to give the appearance of Obama in the lead.
I have to ask, what do these polling outfits think they are accomplishing? No one in the future will deem them credible, so why skew a poll? If one needs to over-sample Democrats in order to show he has a lead, what good is this? No one but no one believes that the turnout will be like 2008 for Obama in 2012. If anything, Romney and the GOP have the enthusiasm on their side.
The end result is that there are going to be many polling folks with egg on their face and a lot of explaining to do on November 7th. At some point in the future polls are going to have to be checked for their sincerity prior to being released as a news. All polls are not created equal and the liberal MSM obviously has slanted much of this data to favor their candidate.
UPDATE I: If the Q-poll cannot be trusted for a +8D sampling for an Obama lead, the same has to be said for thinking that the VA Senate race is not skewed as well.
Kaine is now ahead of Allen, 50 to 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The Republican has gained ground since earlier in October, when Kaine was up 51 to 44 percent in the same poll. Among independent voters in the most recent poll, Allen was ahead of Kaine, 56 to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. In contrast, the poll earlier this month showed independents supporting Kaine over Allen, 51 to 42 percent.
Posted October 31, 2012 by Scared Monkeys 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, CBS/NY Times Poll, Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012, Polls, Presidential Election, Quinnipiac University | 4 comments |
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4 Responses to “Final CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac Poll in OH, FL, VA show Obama up, But … Sampling Skewed”
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O/T
REDISTRIBUTION
HIDDEN CAM PRANK!Obama’s Halloween!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHNBr3PZQaE&feature=player_embedded
Quinnipac is full of it. There is zero truth to any of their polls as are most polls regarding the election.
The real numbers will be Republicans +2 over 2010 and Independents +5 over 2010. The TEA parties made that happen in 2010 and they have not gone to sleep as some wishful thinkers in the Democrat party believe.
BTW
Fox News poll has them tied…
so that means Obama is up about 3-5 in real life
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SM: What you do not realize is that the Fox polling is not all that accurate. Rasmussen is the gold standard in polling. If I had to go with a poll, sorry I will choose Scott Rasmussen any day of the week.
except Scott Rasmussen does not poll cell users…
he needs to do that, he isn’t in reality either
The world has changed.
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SM: Rasmussen also does not over sample Democrats by +8 in his polls either.