RSSRomney Gets 5% Bounce in Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Poll in 9 Battle Ground States
One Day RNC Romney Bounce …
One day after the beginning of the Republican National Convention and it appears that Mitt Romney has received a convention bounce. Romney received a 5 point bounce in his favorable rating according to data presented at a Wednesday breakfast sponsored by The Hill at the law offices of Holland & Knight.
Romney had a 43-percent favorable and 44-percent unfavorable rating in nine battleground states heading into the convention, according to an average compiled by Real Clear Politics.
A survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research in nine battle ground states Tuesday evening found Romney’s favorable rating among likely voters had jumped to 48 percent. His unfavorable rating dipped to 39.
Wilson said the polling data indicated Romney’s image has improved after a day of action at the Tampa Bay Times Forum.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech had the biggest impact of the convention so far, and was more than twice as popular as Ann Romney’s remarks on Tuesday, according to the poll.
Twelve percent of respondents rated Christie’s speech as their favorite, compared to five percent who favored Romney’s, according to the poll.
What would one expect but a bump when the Ann Romney and Chris Christie speeches drew 23 million viewers.It was not just Ann and Christie, the GOP governors were awesome last night and Mia Love became an over night Republican rack star.
An estimated 22.3 million people tuned in to watch the first full night of the GOP convention last night, according to Nielsen, the ratings company. That was an increase of 800,000 viewers on the same night of coverage four years ago in St. Paul, Nielsen said.
It just shows how wrong and skewed the liberal media is as the Politico reported that Chris Cristie’s speech was a flop. Really? Sorry Politico, you have no idea what you are talking about. I am sorry if it was not a typical Christie town hall type meeting where he is screaming at the media or calling someone an idiot. The Keynote speech was intended to speak to the Independents. Screaming and brow beating Obama, who Christie never once mentioned his name, would have accomplished nothing. we know Obama is a failure, Christie’s job was to convince Indies why they should vote for Mitt Romney.
There is no mistaking what a successful keynote speech for Chris Christie would have looked and sounded like. There would have been an electric reaction from the crowd in the convention hall. It would have been followed by waves of effusive media commentary about how people had just heard the future of the Republican Party.
Judged by these standards, there is also no mistaking what the New Jersey governor delivered instead: A prime-time belly-flop, one that notably failed to clear either of those two high bars
Posted August 29, 2012 by Scared Monkeys 2012 Elections, Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012, Polls, Presidential Election, RNC | 10 comments |
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10 Responses to “Romney Gets 5% Bounce in Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Poll in 9 Battle Ground States”
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RE: “Christie’s job was to convince Indies why they should vote for Mitt Romney.”
It is easy to see this goal is part of the plan. I just wonder how effective his speech can be at meeting this goal if you don’t refer to Romney until the final third of his comments? One could say the focus was on himself based on the relative frequency of references to “Romney” vs “Christie (using I)”, a 1:5 ratio.
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SM: Fair point, but I also think there is a little bit of a given that when discussing how Republicans have fixed states there is a collective we.
Although, no one say I or me more than Obama.
R
When I looked at RCP, the only Romney pre-RNC approval polling averages I could see were based on 7 national polls, not battleground states. These did have the 43% FAV to 44% UnFAV, so it seemed these were the source of The Hill article.
I’m not sure how much faith I’d have in comparing a single poll to the averages. The underlying 7 national polls had a wide range for the spread values (-6% to +5%), but only an ave. spread of .7%. If I were to consider how to factor in one more poll, I’d be inclined to add it in as an 8th poll, and see how the ave. factor changed.
If I’ve run the numbers correctly, adding the one new poll to the averages produces a 44% FAV and a 43.5% UnFAV, a shift in the spread of 1.3%.
Due to the small sample size (303), the WPAOR poll has an MOE of nearly 6%
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SM: My personal opinion is that Romney will get a 2-4% bounce from the convention. The days of getting huge bounces I believe are over. One, the campaigns start way too early and two, we live in a more polarized America. There are not as many true Independent undecided voters anymore.
However, I also believe that the Democrat convention is going to be a hate-fest because they cannot run on Obama’s past and cannot offer 4 more years of the nightmare that we have just lived thru. Negative conventions have not worked in the past, ask the GOP when they did just that against Bill Clinton. Speaking of Clinton, he is the only speaker worth a damn in the line up for the Dems.
I predict no bounce from the Democrat convention and matters are made worse because the August unemployment numbers come out the Friday after it. That is going to sink Obama.
%R
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RK…..take a long walk…and get off of this site..
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SM: Brie, remember that its always good to see what the other side is thinking. I hang out on some of the most vile liberal sites, of course not under my real name. What i do find amusing is that my comments are deleted and I am threatened when i do an opposing point of view. we let RK talk, just as a reminder to know what we are up against.
R
#2-SM: I find it amusing that when I raise a purely mathematical, non-partisan aspect of the mentioned poll results, that partisan responses are the norm. I know there is knowledge of poll mechanics, sampling, etc. in this forum, and thought this comment would find a home in that space.
The lack of any mention of the possible inaccuracy when comparing poll averages to a new single poll is surprising, and leaves one wondering if there is any interest in whether or not the Hill conclusions are valid. Perhaps a reported 5% bounce is more important than knowing if the 5% is bogus or not.
#5: Wow! I make 2 comments that are non-partisan factual analysis of the original topics, and this sends you into hack mode with vituperative language.
Are you that threatened by simple data? When can you know if what you’re being told is accurate or not, if your ruler is pure alignment with your preconceived beliefs? What level of thinking is needed to live life that way?
I’d predict you probably aren’t even aware of the bald-faced campaign lies Romney/Ryan have used to win your apparent support. Are you someone that believes that is OK, somehow?
Well at least we can say that RK is polite and thoughtful even though his position is somewhat different.
#6….OK but it is so continually obnoxious, post after post, after post…..it makes you sick to your stomach, that is what it wants to happen….I guess I’ll just read past it!!!!!
I don’t know where this creature feature came from but I wish it would go away….!!!!!
#9 I hope you have a nice day too!