Can Obama get to 270 electoral votes with record unemployment and gas prices heading toward $5 and $6 a gallon? It’s 18 months away …
Larry Sabato takes his Crystal Ball and presents the first electoral map of the 2012 Presidential election. Although it is a bit soon, it is a good baseline to start. There are so many GOP candidates that will toss their hat or scarf in the ring for the 2012 election. Much will change along the way and a better picture will come into focus as we get closer to a GOP nominee and general election campaign. However, much has changed since 2008. You can make the calculations from the map below, 270 electoral votes are needed to win.
With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?
However, it seems like a lifetime since the 2008 election that saw Barack Hussein Obama win the US Presidency over John McCain. Much has changed since 2008 and none of it for the good. Obama finds his present polling data falling fast. Almost as fast as gasoline prices are rising. His average job approval polling average from Real Clear Politics is presently at 45.4% approve, 50% disapprove. These are hardly the numbers that an incumbent president wants to see as an economy continues to sputter, jobs continue to grow at a snails pace, unemployment rate still high and voters are about to feel a pain at the gas pump as they have never experienced. All polls now have Obama underwater.
Gallup: 43% – 49% (-6)
Rasmussen Reports: 46% – 53% (-7)
ABC News/Wash Post: 47% – 50% (-3)
McClatchy/Marist: 44% – 49% (-5)
Democracy Corps(D): 44% – 50% (-6)
CNN/Opinion Research: 48% – 50% (-2)
Reuters/Ipsos: 46% – 49% (-3)
Sabato’s above 2012 initial electoral map hardly looks like the one from 2008 where Obama/Biden beat McCain/Palin, 365 – 173. There certainly is a lack of blue on the 2012 electoral map as compared to the mood of the country in 2008. Does any one think that states like New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida will be Obama wins? America will finally get a chance to show Barack Obama just exactly what they think of Obamacare, Obamanomics, his policies, agenda and a “Hope & Change” that America could have done without.
Then there is the 2010 Electorial Map as pointed out by Protein Wisdom where “The One” must worry that pretty much all toss up states in 2010 went RED to the GOP. Thus one would expect a
Barack Obama will have defend his last four years as President, no cute slogans or catch phrases … unless its, No Jobs You can Believe In. There is a long way to go until 2012; however, Obama also has an up hill climb and he cannot fall back on any fallacy that he is a DC outsider.