With one week to go …
Charlie Cook says that Democrat losses in the House will be enormous in the 2010 midterm election and the GOP will regain power; however, the US Senate is harder to call. Republicans will have to run the table and pick up an almost unheard of 10 US Senate seats on November 2. As Powerline states, it is a difficult road to hoe when many of the seats that need to be picked up are in traditional Democrat states like CA, WA, PA and IL.
It’s easy to look at what appears to be a gigantic Republican 2010 midterm election wave in the House and feel a little slack-jawed, but not so much surprised. There were plenty signs well over a year ago that Democrats were facing grave danger, but even when expecting an onslaught, one can still be shocked at its size and unrelenting force. It would be a surprise if this wave doesn’t match the 52-seat gain on Election Night in 1994, and it could be substantially more.
On the other hand, the Senate picture is incredibly confused. There is no clear narrative in the Senate, just bizarre ups and downs. Republicans could easily find themselves picking up as “few” as seven or as many as 10 seats. An 8-seat pickup seems about right, but that is not written with a great deal of confidence; there are way too many races separated by very few points.
However, it is not like the 2010 elections are the end, it is just the beginning.