Democrat US Senate Trouble … Even the WAPO Has a GOP Pathway to 10 Seat Pick Up and Control


How bad is it for Democrat these days … even the Washington Post has a pathway to 10 US Senate pickups for Republicans and the regaining of control of the Senate. The House seems to be a forgone conclusion as a Democrat loss, the MSM looks to the Senate. With the poor handling of the economy and a liberal agenda from the Obama White House and their complicit minions in the House and the Senate … even liberal media has to report the possible Senate takeover two weeks before the election to save credibility.

Although most experts and political pundits think that it is a tall order in 2010, The WAPO has developed a path of 10 GOP Senate pick-ups in the 2010 midterm elections that could mean that the Republican party to be in control of the US Senate once again. Difficult as it may be, the GOP would have to pick up 10 seats presently held by Democrats while also defending all of the seats that they presently hold.

Here is the WAPO’s path to a potential GOP victory as they lay out their plan in a 4 tier process:

The first tier: Democratic-held seats in North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas are near-certain Republican pickups. Democrats aren’t even seriously contesting the open Senate seat in North Dakota, of which Gov. John Hoeven (R) is the de facto winner.  … So that’s plus three for Republicans.

The second tier: [In Wisconsin]Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) is in deep trouble in his reelection bid against wealthy businessman Ron Johnson. … In Pennsylvania,Democrats insist they are on the comeback trail – and recent polling shows the race tightening somewhat – but former congressman Pat Toomey (R) had opened up a steady edge over Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Give Republicans both seats and they are halfway to the majority: plus five.

[Obama carried Wisconsin in the 2008 Presidental election 56%-43%. Obama also won Pennsylvania 55%-44%.]

The third tier: Polling in Colorado, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia suggests each of those races is a genuine tossup; in a year in which the national winds are blowing strongly in Republicans’ favor, it’s not unreasonable to assume that GOP candidates in each will get just enough benefit from that breeze to win (a la Webb and Tester in 2006). That makes plus nine for Republicans – still one short of the majority.

Obama won Colorado, Nevada and Illinois by 54%-45%, 55%- 43% and 62%-37%, respectively. One has to wonder how the voting ballot scandal in Illinois will affect the outcome of the US Senate race between Kirk (R) and Giannoulias (D), where they failed to send ballots to the military in a timely fashion according to US law. The fact that Kirk served in the military is just a coincidence, eh?

The fourth tier: The majority then comes down to three states in which Democrats have heavy demographic advantages: California, Connecticut and Washington. (Barack Obama carried that trio by 24, 23 and 18 percentage points, respectively.)

California, Connecticut and Washington were thought to be considered solid Democrat blue states; however, that is not the case in 2010. States that Obama carried easily in 2008 are now in play. In the final weeks before the midterm elections, all the Republicans have to do is win one of three states. Who would have thought? Although Senator Cornyn (TX-R) stated it might be a two election cycle process of FNS over the weekend, it will be the American people who decide the outcome, not the defeatist mentality of the GOP establishment. However, if that is the case that might even be a worse case scenario for Obama and Democrats in 2012.

Do not forget to vote … Remember in November!!!

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Washington Senate Election 2010: Incumbent Democrat Patty Murray Trails Republicans Dino Rossi & Clint Didier
  • Larry J. Sabato & The Crystal Ball’s Final 2010 Midterm Call: GOP +55 House; GOP +8 Senate
  • Arkansas Senate Election 2010: All Republicans With Huge Leads Over Democrat Lincoln
  • Illinois Senate Election 2010: Republican Kirk 41%, Democrat Giannoulias 37%
  • WEST VIRGINIA SENATE ELECTION 2014 – Shelley Moore Capito (R) – Natalie Tennant (D) (Update: Race Called for Republican Shelley Moore Capito … +1

  • Comments

    3 Responses to “Democrat US Senate Trouble … Even the WAPO Has a GOP Pathway to 10 Seat Pick Up and Control”

    1. Lightwave on October 18th, 2010 1:14 pm

      Personally I would love to see nothing more than Republicans pick up nine seats…and to see a number of Dems in the Senate up for re-election in 2012 jump to the Republican Party.

      Sure, I’ll be the first to say that Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman should be primaried into oblivion. But it would be the death knell of Obama.

    2. on October 18th, 2010 2:21 pm

      can’t happen soon enough.

    3. dennisintn on October 22nd, 2010 6:47 am

      the republicans will winn only if republicans don’t get complacent and don’t vote. there are no sure things out there and polls do not take into consideration the obama/alinsky/chicago thuggery political tricks that have yet to be played. all these democrats vowing to stand up against pelosi or reid in order to garner your vote will be kneeling at the feet of pelosi and reid as soon as the election is over. that is exactly the strategy pelosi told them to use before the recess.
      a republican or right leaning independent who doesn’t vote is the same as voting for the democrats.

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