Democrat Michelle Nunn Fading in Georgia Senate Race, So Is the Democrat Chances of Control of US Senate … David Perdue Takes Poll Lead

GEORGIA, WAKE THE HELL UP, THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S DEMOCRAT PARTY AND MICHELLE NUNN IS HARDLY HER FATHER SAM NUNN …

There was a point in time in the George Senate race for the retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss, that Democrat challenger Michelle Nunn had a chance of pulling off the upset and shift what has been a red state to a blue Senate seat. How much of that though was because of a liberal media pushing Michelle Nunn as the daughter of former Georgia Senator Sam Nun? Georgia, do you really want to be the state that continues to empower Harry Reid and President Barack Obama? Sorry, but Michelle is not Sam Nunn.

However, the early favorably polling for Michelle Nunn seems to be subsiding as Republican David Perdue has taken the lead in the polls. According to the most recent RCP polls, Perdue is up by 2.2%.

Just remember Georgia, a vote for Michelle Nunn, is a vote for Democrat Senate Majority Leader and President Barack Obama.

For a brief time in mid-October, some Democrats believed Michelle Nunn, the party’s Senate candidate in Georgia, could be the firewall that prevents a Republican takeover of the Senate. If Nunn could win the seat opened by retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, then Republicans would need to pick up seven, not six, seats to take control.

In half-a-dozen polls taken over a two-week period in the middle of October, Nunn led Republican opponent David Perdue in five, while the candidates tied in one. Democratic optimism surged. “National Democrats have just decided to pour $1 million into this race in Georgia, a sign of how important a victory here would be to their effort to beat the odds and hold on to control of the Senate,” the Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 17. More pro-Nunn money came after that, with a barrage of ads focusing mostly on accusations the businessman Perdue outsourced thousands of Georgia jobs.

Now, things have changed. Perdue has recovered from the attacks — he indisputably helped create thousands of jobs in his career — and in the last six polls, taken since Oct. 16, Perdue has led in five, while one was a tie. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Perdue is up by 2.2 percentage points. In the newest poll, a NBC News-Marist survey released Sunday, Perdue leads by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley

DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley,  then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.

Joni Ernst for US Senate

If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.

The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.

Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.

Des Moines Register Iowa poll:

• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.

• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.

• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.

• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.

• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP.  Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.

Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!

UPDATE I: In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber.

In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.

Why? Let’s look at the map.

As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.

But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.

UPDATE II: Democrats trotted out Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton to stop Joni Ernst … and she Widened her poll Lead.

The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.

You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.

They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.

Frightening Predeictions for Senate Democrats in Upcoming Midterm Elections from NY Times and WAPO

It’s Halloween time, but Senate Democrats have more to fear than ghosts, goblins, witches and vampires … NT Times and WAPO predict Democrats are the Walking “political” Dead …

With just days to go before the 2014 midterm November 4th elections, two very liberal papers, the New York Times and Washington Post, are predicting a GOP Senate takeover. The NY Times predicts that there is a 69% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate.  According to the Times, Republicans will win Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana, leaving the seven most competitive states below in question. The NY Times predicts that Democrats will win the senate races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas; however, the GOP will run the rest of the seats in play in Georgia, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado. If the New York Times is correct, the GOP will hold a 52-48 control of the Senate after the elections.

According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 69% chance of gaining a majority.

State-by-State Probabilities #
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.

However, if Democrats think that the NYT’s 69% chance of a GOP victory is bad … the WAPO is predicting a 95% chance of the Republican party taking back control of the US Senate.

The model’s factors fall into three categories:

1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election.  We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.

2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the major-party vote from the election six years before, which is the incumbent’s share of the Democratic and Republican votes, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.

3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races.  (After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House model.  There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office.)

Question: The NY Times and WAPO have been among the two most liberal media outlets that have carried the water for Barack Obama and Democrats, why are they calling the election now for the GOP? Is it because they want to put out faux-news and give Republicans voters a false sense of security or is it because they see the handwriting on the wall and are trying to mantain some sort of credibility by finally reporting the truth?

Harry Reid literally begs for money as he sees his job of Democrat Senate Majority Leader slipping away. Just curious Dingy Harry, if you can triple one’s gift, you need money how? I have a deal for you, You can just double my donation of $0.00.

But I’m emailing once more because this moment is absolutely critical. I know you’re a busy person, but this is an absolute MUST-READ:
Our Final Weekend Get Out The Vote Push is on the chopping block: We’re still $1,389,071 short with 24 hours left.
If we don’t fill that budget gap, we’ll be forced to scale back our plans to mobilize 575,000 voters this weekend. These are voters who could determine the outcome of the whole Senate.
I’m begging for your help to close the gap IMMEDIATELY. If we fall short before the last end-of-month deadline tomorrow, our chance to keep the Senate gets a whole lot smaller.
Will you pitch in to the Final Weekend GOTV Push before the final deadline in 24 hours? We’ll triple-match your gift.

Other nightmarish 2014 US Senate predictions for Democrats. None of the pollsters are predicting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and Harry Reid (NV-D) will no longer be Senate Majority Leader.

• Five Thirty Eight Politics
• Daily Kos
• Huffington Post
• Princeton Election Consortium
• Predict Wise

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Doesn’t Think Asians Are Smarter Than Anyone Else, Can’t Tell Them Apart

 HARRY REID CAN’T TELL RIGHT FROM WONG …

On Friday speaking to the Asian Chamber of Commerce, Harry Reid (D-NV) joked about the stereo-type Asians and then some how thought it was okay to say that he could not keep his Wongs straight as they all looked alike. Are you kidding? Imagine what the fire storm would have been if he said the same thing about blacks? Imagine if these same comments were made by a Republican? There would not be calls for an apology, there would be cries for him to resign.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is making the rounds Friday after video surfaced of him cracking two jokes about Asians at a Las Vegas meeting.

Speaking to the Asian Chamber of Commerce, Reid joked about the stereotype regarding Asian intelligence.

“I don’t think you’re smarter than anyone else, but you’ve convinced a lot of us you are,” he said to chuckles.

Later, when someone mentioned a person with the last name “Wong,” Reid cracked: “One problem that I’ve had today is keeping my Wongs straight.”

National Review reminds us that the hypocrite Harry Reid was quick to go after his 2010 US Senate challenger Sharron Angle when she made an Asian joke:

While on the campaign trail in 2010, Reid criticized Republican challenger Sharron Angle for her own “Asian” comments. Angle came under fire for telling a group of Hispanic students that “some of you look a little more Asian to me.”

UPDATE I: Harry Reid apologizes to Asians over ‘Wong’ comment.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is apologizing for comments he made in “poor taste” about Asian people.

The apology was prompted by remarks he made Thursday to the Asian Chamber of Commerce in Las Vegas and after video was posted by conservative trackers.

On Friday, Reid offered a mea culpa: “My comments were in extremely poor taste and I apologize. Sometimes I say the wrong thing.”

Poll: Republicans Gov. Brian Sandoval Beats Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid 53% to 43% in Hypothetical 2016 Nevada Senate Matchup

ARE HARRY REID’S DAYS IN THE US SENATE NUMBERED?

In a recent Harper Polling survey, the poll shows that in a hypothetical match 2016 match-up for the US Senate for Nevada Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval handily defeat Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid by 10 points, 53% to 43%. The poll also showed that Gov. Sandoval destroys Reid among independents, 65%-28%. OUCH. Have the citizens of Nevada finally grown weary of Dingy Harry? One has to wonder whether the people of Nevada will have to wait until 2016 to rid themselves of Reid. If the GOP does not find a way to blow it, Republicans could take back the Senate in 2014 and Reid would lose is Majority Leader role. One would then have to ponder whether 74 year old Reid would stay in the Senate.

Full poll results can be read HERE (pdf)

Gov. Brian Sandoval leads Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by 10 percentage points in a hypothetical 2016 U.S. Senate matchup, according to a new poll that represents the first public release of results in this potential race.

The survey, conducted by Harper Polling earlier this week, also shows, as other surveys do, Sandoval cruising to re-election (56-34) over Bob Goodman. The robo-survey of 602 statewide voters has a margin of error of 4 percent.

Sandoval crushes Reid among independents, 65-28. Reid’s 55 percent unfavorable rating is all but fatal — you know, just as it was in 2010.

The NRO reminds us that Harry Reid has proven to be resilient against past challengers like in 2010 when Reid seemed vulnerable, but eventually defeated Republican candidate Sharron Angle by nearly 6 percentage points. However, popular Governor Brian Sandoval is not Sharron Angle. But if it does get to a 2016 Senate race between  Sandoval and Reid and the polling is still as one sided toward the Nevada Governor, look for Reid to retire, he will be 80, rather than losing in an embarrassing swan song.