Louisiana US Senate Runoff Election Day: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) … Incumbent Landrieu Headed for Historic Defeat
Louisiana Senate runoff election day:
Today, December 6, 2014, is the runoff US Senate election in Louisiana between challenger, Rep. Bill Cassidy and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu. As reported at FiveThirtyEight, it appears that Sen. Landrieu is headed for an epic and historic defeat. The FiveThirtyEight model projects Landrieu losing by a 57.8% to 42.2% margin. It may not be the greatest defeat for an incumbent senator; however, it would be in the top 10. Mary Landrieu’s last gasp for any shot of winning reelection went up in flames with her “Fail Mary” XL Keystone pipeline Senate vote. That was pretty much, game, set and match for the incumbent. According to the RCP polling average, Cassidy leads Landrieu by 20.2 points.
By days end, the Republican party will have a +9 senate pickup for 2014.
The FiveThirtyEight model projects her losing the runoff 99.8 percent of the time, and by a 57.8 percent to 42.2 percent margin. That’s mostly based on polling, which can be unreliable in a low-turnout runoff.
What else do we know? The early voters in the Louisiana runoff have been vastly more Republican-leaning than early voters in last month’s election. And while whites were only 65 percent of early voters in November, they have been 70 percent for the runoff. Registered Republicans were only 34 percent of early voters in November, but they’ve been 39 percent of early voters for the runoff.
If this change in voter makeup holds on Saturday, it’s obviously very bad news for Landrieu. Assuming she wins the same percentage of white voters as Democratic candidates did in November, she’ll lose the runoff by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent, or about what the model forecasts.
A defeat that large would be the largest for an incumbent this year, topping Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s 17-point loss. It would come close to Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln’s 21-point loss in 2010, which ranks as the eighth-largest ever, as well as the largest loss for an incumbent since William Hathaway of Maine in 1978.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Says Dems Screwed Up Passing Obamacare … “Democrats Blew the Opportunity the American People Gave Them” in 2008 and “Put All of Our Focus on the Wrong Problem”
ISN’T THIS INTERESTING, DEMOCRAT CHUCKY SCHUMER SAYS THAT DEMOCRATS SCREWED UP PASSING OBAMACARE …
Speaking Tuesday at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, New York Democrat Sen. Charles Schumer had an epiphany and stated that “Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them” after the 2008 election. Schumer went on to say that, “We took their mandate and put all of our focus on the wrong problem, health care reform.” Gee, ya think? Sen. Schumer was one of the 60 Democrat senators who passed Obamacare, with not one GOP vote, and forced the unpopular law down the throats of Americans. Now suddenly because as we predicted back then, it would be their undoing, Schumer has misgivings that Democrats focused on it first and did not focus on what Americans were dealing with on a day to day basis, a poor economy and unemployment. Schumer told those in attendance “that considering 85% of all Americans got their health care from either the government, Medicare, Medicaid, or their employer … we would still only be talking about only 5% of the electorate.” Wasn’t that the same argument that those opposed to Obamacare were making in 2009? Why blow up the healthcare system in the United States for only 5% of the people? This is a kin to demolishing a house because the back porch needs repair. Not only did Democrats not listen to the people, the law they forced upon them was nothing more than a lie.
Democrats made a strategic mistake by passing the Affordable Care Act, Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), the third-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership, said Tuesday.
Schumer says Democrats “blew the opportunity the American people gave them” in the 2008 elections, a Democratic landslide, by focusing on healthcare reform instead of legislation to boost the middle class.
But why is Sen. Schumer talking about the Democrats disastrous decision to pass Obamacare now, is it because they have buyer’s remorse and care about the American people? Not at all, it is because they have taken a political shellacking in 2010 and 2014 and now find themselves in the minority in the House and the Senate. It all has to do with power, not the people. Honestly, who in their right mind thought that an unpopular bill that adversely affected so many people to only benefit a few would not have ramifications? If Democrats could not see that, then they deserve what they got.
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): After passing the stimulus, Democrats should have continued to propose middle-class oriented programs and built on the partial success of the stimulus. But unfortunately, Democrats blew the opportunity the American people gave them. We took their mandate and put all of our focus on the wrong problem — health care reform. Now the plight of uninsured Americans and the hardships caused by unfair insurance company practices certainly needed to be addressed, but it was not the change we were hired to make. Americans were crying out for the end to the recession, for better wages and more jobs, not changes in health care.
This makes sense, considering 85% of all Americans got their health care from either the government, Medicare, Medicaid, or their employer. And if health care costs were going up, it really did not affect them. The Affordable Care Act was aimed at the 36 million Americans who were not covered. It has been reported that only a third of the uninsured are even registered to vote. In 2010 only about 40% of those registered voting. So even if the uninsured kept with the rate, which they likely did not, we would still only be talking about only 5% of the electorate.
To aim a huge change in mandate at such a small percentage of the electorate made no political sense. So when Democrats focused on health care, the average middle-class person thought the Democrats are not paying enough attention to me. Again, our health care system was riddled with unfairness and inefficiency. It was a problem desperately in need of fixing. The changes that were made are and will continue to be positive changes, but we would have been better able to address it if Democrats had first proposed and passed bold programs aimed at a broader swath of the middle class.
Had we started more broadly, the middle class would have been more receptive to the idea that President Obama wanted to help them. The initial faith they placed in him would have been rewarded. They would have held a more pro-government view and would have given him the permission structure to build a more pro-government coalition. Then Democrats would have been in a better position to tackle our nation’s healthcare crisis.
Healthcare, it wasn’t at the top of the agenda for middle class people …
“We should have done it, we just should not have done it first”. People were hurting and said, what about me, I am losing my job. It’s not health care that is bothering me.”
EXIT QUESTION: So why is Sen. Charles Schumer making these comments about Obamacare? Maybe because Schumer does not want to be the next on the list of 29 Democrat Senators who are no longer in the US Senate who voted for Obamacare.
Vox Populi Polling: Republican Bill Cassidy Leads Democrat Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu 53% to 42% Ahead of Louisiana US Senate Election
Ahead of the December 6th Louisiana US Senate runoff election, a Vox Populi poll has Republican challenger US Rep. Bill Cassidy leading Democrat incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu, 53% to 42%. This on the foot-heals of Sen. Landrieu’s failure to deliver passage of the XL Keystone pipeline bill in the Senate. Between Landrieu’s failures and President Barack Obama’s poor approval ratings, it would appear that the GOP will have a net pick up of 9 senate seats for the 2014 midterm elections. Add Obama’s illegal execution order of amnesty to the mix as well.
A new Louisiana survey released by Vox Populi Polling today found that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Cassidy leads Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu 53 to 42 percent, with 5 percent unsure. In addition, Cassidy is up big with Independents, winning with them 58 to 31 percent over Landrieu. Cassidy has seen a big bump after the Nov. 4 open primary. In our recent Oct. 13-14 survey, Cassidy led Landrieu 48 to 44 percent in a head-to-head, with 8 percent unsure.
On the heels of last night’s United States Senate vote on the Keystone XL Pipeline, it is interesting to note that voters aren’t moved by Mary Landrieu’s efforts to bring the legislation before the Senate for a floor vote. When asked if it made voters more likely to vote for the incumbent Democrat, 39 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Bill Cassidy and 32 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu.
RCP has Cassidy far out ahead of Landrieu by 16 points.
2014 Louisiana Senate Runnoff Election Poll … GOP Challenger Bill Cassidy Ahead of Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu by 16 Points
Not even a Democrat stunt of a Keystone Pipeline vote in the Senate is going to save Mary Landrieu … Could wind up being a +9 Senate pickup in the end.
According to an internal poll conducted on behalf of the Cassidy campaign, GOP challenger Bill Cassidy has 56.6% of the vote, while incumbent Democrat Landrieu’s 40.5% in a poll conducted by Magellan Strategies. WOW, a 16 point lead for Cassidy as the Landrieu camp cries foul. But is it that hard to believe? On November 4th the Senate election results in Louisiana were Landrieu (D) 43%, Cassidy (R) 42% and Manness (R) 14%. So in a runoff election between just Landrieu and Cassidy, why shouldn’t Cassidy get the Conservative Tea Party Republican vote from Manness? It is a pretty safe to say that that the Democrat will not get them.
The final election results in Loisiana may not be a 16 point win for Cassidy, but it is hard to believe that he will not win. Even the Democrats Senate vote for the Keystone pipeline will not save her. Harry Reid had 6 years to hold a vote and refused to. As Bill Cassidy said, sadly the only job that Reid is interested in protecting is Mary Landrieu’s. The Senate Louisiana runoff is scheduled for December 6, 2014.
Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) has opened up a 16 point lead over Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in their Louisiana Senate runoff, according to an internal poll conducted on behalf of the Cassidy campaign and obtained by The Hill.
Cassidy takes 56.6 percent against Landrieu’s 40.5 percent in the poll conducted by Magellan Strategies. While internal polls should be viewed with some skepticism, it’s the first head-to-head poll to be released in the runoff period. The RealClearPolitics average of polls taken before Election Day showed Cassidy up
by only 5 percent in the head-to-head matchup.
A source close to the Landrieu campaign strongly pushed back against the poll, arguing that it’s an automated, push-button poll conducted by a conservative outlet, it used loaded terms to survey only issues pertinent to the Cassidy campaign, and that it underestimates Landrieu’s popularity among African American voters.
On Election Day, Landrieu took 43 percent in a field where Republicans split the vote. Cassidy trailed in at 42 percent, and Tea Party candidate Rob Maness at 14 percent. Louisiana’s election rules require a run-off on December 6 between the top two candidates since no candidate topped 50 percent of the vote.
Maness has since rallied conservatives to back Cassidy. Influential conservatives like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-La.) and Sarah Palin have endorsed Cassidy and are participating in “unity rallies” to help him unseat Landrieu.
HOW LOW CAN THEY GO …
According to a new Gallup poll, the favorability for the Democrats has hit a record low following the disastrous loses in the 2014 midterm elections that saw them lose more House seats, lose control of the Senate and lose more governorships. Only 36% polled had a favorable view of the Democratic party, that is a 6% point drop from before the midterms. I think we can now understand why many of the races were not as close as projected and some races like the Senate election in Virginia was even close at all. The polling trend was against the Dems and it showed on election night. The GOP standing with 42 percent favorability, it is the first time since 2011 the Republican party has had a higher rating than the Democrats.
After the midterm elections that saw the Democratic Party suffer significant losses in Congress, a record-low 36% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the party, down six percentage points from before the elections. The Republican Party’s favorable rating, at 42%, is essentially unchanged from 40%. This marks the first time since September 2011 that the Republican Party has had a higher favorability rating than the Democratic Party.
These results come from a Nov. 6-9 Gallup poll, conducted after Republicans enjoyed a breathtaking sweep of important contests throughout the country in this year’s midterms. The party gained control of the Senate and will likely capture its largest House majority in nearly a century. Additionally, the GOP now controls 31 governorships and two-thirds of state legislative chambers.
How low can they go? Following the recent video revelations by Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber admitting they deliberately deceived the American people and called them stupid, look for Democrats poll numbers to fall even further.