Nate Silver, the NY Times polling analyst and considered the new wiz kid of political polling says that the GOP has a real chance of retaking the US Senate in 2014. Silver wrote on his “Five Thirty Eight” blog that it will not be easy for the Republicans, but control for the Senate has become a toss up. The recent announcement of Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana not to run for Senate has all but put that seat into the hands of the GOP. Democrats face other uphill battles in predominately “red” states with open seats formerly held by Democrats like South Dakota and West Virginia.Nate Silver puts forth a race-by-race analysis of the Senate that suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections.
However, there is a long way to go between the 2014 elections, anything could happen and in order to win elections, the GOP has to put forth good candidates that act like Republicans, follow Republican principles and don’t alienate their base. The electorate is not just going to give it to them.
The New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver believes that Republicans may have a shot at retaking the Senate.
“A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections,” Silver writes on his “Five Thirty Eight” blog. “Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.”
Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana Says He Will Not Run For the U.S. Senate … Helps for a Possible GOP Senate Takeover in 2014
Big surprise in Montana proves to be a gift for the GOP.
In a surprising twist and a blow to the Democrat party, Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana says that he will not run for the US Senate for Montana in 2014. Schweitzer was considered the Democrat front runner and the Democrats best chance to hold the seat from retiring Democrat Sen. Max “Obamacare is a train wreck” Baucus. Will this shift in the Senate seat in Montana from Democrat to the GOP further help the Republican party. The Politico seems to think so. The GOP needs to capture a net pickup of six Senate seats in 2014. The WAPO is calling it a gift for the GOP.
Already, Republicans are favored to win two seats left vacant by Democratic retirements — in West Virginia and South Dakota — and the Schweitzer move will make it much easier for the GOP to win in Montana.
That means the battle for the majority will likely be fought in a handful of red states with Democratic incumbents, including North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska.
So how does this gift turn into Christmas come early for the GOP? With this recent news Schweitzer not running for Senate, Montana becomes the third problematic Democratic open seat for the party. The other is in West Virginia where Rockefeller is retiring. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is the clear favorite as Democrats have yet to forth a serious candidate to run. The same can be said to be true in South Dakota with the retirement of Tim Johnson, where the two leading Democratic candidates took a pass while popular former governor Mike Rounds dodged a serious Republican primary challenge.
The GOP now must focus on pickups in the following four seats, all of which are held by Democratic incumbents running for reelection in generally “red” states: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.
Full list of Senators up for reelection in 2014: Those in “red” below are considered a highly probably change of party in 2014. Comments in “blue” are editors notes.
Max Baucus (Montana)*
Mark Begich (Alaska)
Chris Coons (Delaware)
Ed Markey (Massachusetts)
Richard Durbin (Illinois)
Al Franken (Minnesota) – How on earth has the GOP not been able to recruit a serious candidate against this joke of a US Senator?
Kay Hagan (North Carolina)
Tom Harkin (Iowa)*
Tim Johnson (South Dakota) *
Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) – Landrieu continues to win in the “red” state of Louisiana, but Sabato has the race as a toss up.
Carl Levin (Michigan)*
Jeff Merkley (Oregon)
Mark Pryor (Arkansas) - They claim that Prior is vulnerableand in trouble for reelection, but I will not believe it until I see it.
Jack Reed (Rhode Island)
John Rockefeller (West Virginia)*
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)
Mark Udall (Colorado)
Tom Udall (New Mexico)
Mark Warner (Virginia)
Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) - I can only hope that Alexander is primary challenged and loses in a state that is more conservative than its Senator is. Time to step up Marsha Blackburn and do what is right for the state, note the establishment hierarchy of the GOP. The volunteer state needs representation that compares to its conservatism, not a RINO.
Saxby Chambliss (Georgia)*
Jeff Chiesa (New Jersey) – Appointee retiring, to be succeeded in October, 2013 – Cannot see a Republican winning in the Garden state. Those days are long since gone.
Thad Cochran (Mississippi)
Susan Collins (Maine) – She’s a RINO, but a conservative could never win in the lobster state.
John Cornyn (Texas)
Michael Enzi (Wyoming)
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) - for the love of God would some Republican please primary challenge Lindsey “Grahamnesty”. What say you Rep. Trey Gowdy?
James Inhofe (Oklahoma)
Mike Johanns (Nebraska)*
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)
James Risch (Idaho)
Pat Roberts (Kansas)
Jeff Sessions (Alabama)
* represents retiring Senator, open seat.
Check out Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball for 2014 predictions. But there is still a long way to go and anything could happen.
Hey Alaska, How’s That Obama, Democrat beholden “green” energy Senator stuff working out for ya?
Sarah Palin has been making a lot of news lately and opened the doors to many opportunities. The former Alaska governor told Sean Hannity during an appearance on his radio show that the door is open to her running for the US Senate in Alaska in 2014. Currently, Democratic freshman Sen. Mark Begich holds the office which borders on the absurd for Alaska, a state so rich in oil and resources, while they have a Senator who is beholden to the radical LEFT, anti-fossil fuel Democrats in the Senate and President Barack Obama. At present, two Republicans have already announced challenges to Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 GOP nominee Joe Miller. Anything is possible, but Palin would have to battle the LEFT as she would have a political target on her and the establishment GOP as well. However, one thing is for certain, in a state like Alaska where Romney beat Obama in 2012 Presidential election, 55% – 41%, there is no way that Alaska should have a Democrat representing their best interests. Sarah Palin recently also commented that she would be open to start a third party if Republicans continue to not act like Republicans. Well, who wouldn’t?
Sarah Palin’s interview on the Sean Hannity Radio Show
Sarah Palin opened the door Tuesday to running for Senate next year in Alaska.
“I’ve considered it because people have requested me considering it, but I’m still waiting to see what the lineup will be and hoping that … there will be some new blood, some new energy,” the former governor told Sean Hannity during an appearance on his radio show.
Two Republicans have already announced challenges to Democratic freshman Sen. Mark Begich: Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 GOP nominee Joe Miller.
“We’d meet with any Alaskan interested in challenging Mark Begich,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring told POLITICO, “and Governor Palin is right in that Begich abandoned his campaign promises — most notably by being the deciding vote on ObamaCare — and must be repealed and replaced.”
A poll conducted by Harper Polling in May 2013 found Sarah Palin leading other Republican primary contenders to face Begich in 2014. Don’t let the liberal MSM BS you, Palin would win the Senate election for Alaska.
More from The Hill:
“I’ve considered it because people have requested me considering it,” she said. “But I’m still waiting to see what the lineup will be and hoping that … there will be some new blood, new energy, not just kind of picking from the same old politicians in the state.”
Palin said she has a “heart for service” and would consider returning to politics if she could “help the cause.”
Run Liz, Run …
Hmm, is Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice-President Dick Cheney, going to primary challenge Wyoming Republican Senator Mike Enzi? So fears the NY Times and establishment Republicans. According to reports Cheney contacted Enzi that she is thinking about it. Some, like Alan Simpson, say that it would be disastrous for the GOP and open the door for Democrats in Wyoming. Hardy, spare us the drama. Although, I generally have no issues with Enzi for the most part, he is one of the 32 Republicans that voted against the Senate amnesty bill and is considered rather conservative. That being said, every one should have to fear the ability to being primary challenged. No politician should ever be given a free pass to be a Senator for life or until they feel like retiring. The US Senate is not the Supreme Court. Maybe it is time for the 69 year old Enzi to return to private life.
Ms. Cheney, 46, is showing up everywhere in the state, from chicken dinners to cattle growers’ meetings, sometimes with her parents in tow. She has made it clear that she wants to run for the Senate seat now held by Michael B. Enzi, a soft-spoken Republican and onetime fly-fishing partner of her father.
But Ms. Cheney’s move threatens to start a civil war within the state’s Republican establishment, despite the reverence many hold for her family.
Mr. Enzi, 69, says he is not ready to retire, and many Republicans say he has done nothing to deserve being turned out.
It would bring about “the destruction of the Republican Party of Wyoming if she decides to run and he runs, too,” Alan K. Simpson, a former Republican senator from the state, said in an interview last week. “It’s a disaster — a divisive, ugly situation — and all it does is open the door for the Democrats for 20 years.”
Wyoming is a solid GOP state. In 2012, Romney won the state over Obama, 69% to 28%. Which ever Republicans wins the GOP Senate primary will will Wyoming so spare me the Democrats might win the state if Liz Cheney runs. What it does tell me is that the old guard, establishment elitists in the GOP are worried about new blood. However, I am in some what agreement with Powerline that the GOP needs to focus on the enemy as being liberals, Obama and the Democrat party. Although I cannot say that Enzi’s partnering with Democrat Durbin and the on-line Internet tax is a bastion of conservative values. But I also believe that no one is above being primary challenged. It needs to happen more often in the Republican party; however, this may not be the state to do it in. But then again, it would be a further upgrade of conservatism and that is never a bad thing.
It’s too bad Liz Cheney cannot move to Tennessee and primary challenge Lamar Alexander. Now there is a GOP Senator that needs to be removed and replaced with a more conservative candidate, rather than one who voted for the Senate amnesty bill and has become a “green” energy wacko. While the Volunteer state is at it, primary challenge the Judas Bob Corker the nest time he runs as well.
GOP Poll Has Massachusetts Senate Race Between Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez a Statistical Tie
As reported at The Weekly Standard, a Republican polling firm has the election for the Massachusetts US Senate race between long time Democrat Congressman Ed Markey and first time candidate Republican Gabriel Gomez a statistical tie. This Senate race is the special election to replace the seat formerly held by John Kerry, who became Secretary of State. Obviously, Republican Gabriel Gomez has a tough row to hoe in the predominately Democrat state of Massachusetts, but he represents a breath of fresh air, rather than just more of the same of stale old politicians who think that politics is a life-long profession.
Gomez (left) – Markey (rt.)
A Republican polling firm has found that the Massachusetts special election for the U.S. Senate is in a dead heat. Democrat Ed Markey, the longtime congressman, leads Republican and first-time candidate Gabriel Gomez by just a point. According to McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that often works for Republican candidates, 45 percent of likely voters in Massachusetts support Markey, while 44 percent support Gomez and 11 percent remain undecided. The election is on June 25.
Recently, the Cook Political Reports changed the race from leaning Democrat to a toss up. According to RCP, Markey is way ahead. However, the PPP, what so many have come to believe is the Holy Grail of polling only has Markey ahead by 4% and Markey is polling far less than 50%. This race is totally up for grabs and will depend on turn out in an off-off year election, at a time when Barack Obama is in deep trouble with scandals.
Senate Debate: Markey, Gomez Attack Over Guns, Benghazi.
Massachusetts US Senate Race between Markey (D) and Gomez (R) Called a ‘Toss Up’ … Could the GOP Win Another Special Election in the Bay State?
Could Republicans win another Senate special election in Massachusetts?
The Cook Political Report has announced that nit is changing its prediction for the Massachusetts US Senate special election between Democrat Rep. Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez from “leans Democrat” to “toss up”. How is it possible that Secretary of State John Kerry’s former Senate seat could be in trouble in the dark blue state of Massachusetts? Ed Markey is an 18 term Democrat Congressman and registered Democrats outnumber their GOP counterparts in Massachusetts by a margin of 3 to 1 margin. Yet, the Cook Political report has this race as a toss up. Could the GOP pull off another special US Senate election win like they did in 2010 when Scott Brown won?
The 2013 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts will be held on June 25, 2013, to fill the Massachusetts Class II United States Senate seat formerly held by John Kerry for the remainder of the term ending January 3, 2015
The Cook report announced Thursday that it was shifting its prediction for the race from “leaning Democrat” to “toss up,” although the group acknowledged it still had its “thumb on the scale” for Democrat Edward Markey, an 18-term congressman who has consistently polled ahead of his Republican rival, businessman Gabriel Gomez.
“In truth, we have had a difficult time accepting the idea that this race might get close,” wrote Cook’s Jennifer Duffy. “At the same time, Democrats nominated a long-serving member of Congress at a time when Congress is an almost universally unpopular institution. It doesn’t help that Markey has not had a competitive race in decades.”
More from the Cook Political Report.
PPP’s first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.
Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he’s at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He’s at 31/50 with independents.
For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He’s up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.
GOP Senatorial Candidate Gabriel Gomez Calls Democrat Opponent Rep. Ed Markey “Pond Scum” After Being Compared to Osama Bin Laden
Massachusetts US Senate Race: With all due respect to pond scum …
Massachusetts Republican Senate candidate Gabriel Gomez called opponent Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) “pond scum” during a recent interview. Gomez did so in a response to a question regarding a dirty and disgusting ad where his opponent Ed Markey compared Gomez, a former Navy SEAL, to Osama bin Laden in an internet video that placed their images side-by-side. As Gomez stated during his interview, maybe Markey does doe realize that it was Navy Seals who actually killed Bin Laden? The internet video is truly reprehensible. For Markey to put out his first video comparing Gomez to Bin Laden, because Gomez was critical of President Obama because they released so much classified information on the Navy Seals regarding the raid that killed Bin Laden that puts the troops in harms way.
“I don’t think there’s anything more offensive,” Gomez said. “You know I’ve got four young kids,
and they gotta sit there and gotta see an ad with their dad — who served honorably,
talk to anybody I served with — whether as a pilot or as a SEAL, anybody I worked with.
And for him to be as dirty and low, pond scum, like to put me up next to bin Laden,
he’s just gotta be called what he is. It’s that simple.”
Gomez went on to say, Congressman Markey has been around for 40 years, he know what he is doing. Hmm, I thought we honored Navy Seals who defend America’s freedoms and liberties. Guess not when it comes to Massachusetts liberal Ed Markey. Is this what we need in the US Senate? Funny how Barack Obama used the death of Bin Laden and the heroic efforts of our US Navy Seals for his political advantage and his photo-op of Obama in the “Situation Room” yet Obama was no where to be found when the Benghazi Consulate was being attacked by terrorists, Ambassador Stevens was missing and they were begging for help.
Liberal Super PAC ‘Progress Kentucky’ Who Made Racist Comments About Mitch McConnell’s Asian Wife Responsible For Illegal Secretly Recording Opposition Meeting On Ashley Judd
WATERGATE II in the “Blue Grass” State …
It turns out that a liberal super PAC group, “Progress Kentucky,” was responsible for the illegal recordings of Republican Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell and his campaign staffers. The secretly and illegally recorded meeting was an opposition discussion on one time Democrat opponent, actor Ashley Judd. As reported at WFPL News, Jacob Conway, an executive committee member of the Jefferson County Democratic Party said the founders of Progressive Kentucky Shawn Reilly and Curtis Morrison were responsible for the illegal recording and bragged about recording the meeting.
A secret recording of a campaign strategy session between U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell and his advisors was taped by leaders of the Progress Kentucky super PAC, says a longtime local Democratic operative.
Mother Jones Magazine released the tape this week. The meeting itself took place on Feb. 2.
Jacob Conway, who is on the executive committee of the Jefferson County Democratic Party, says that day, Shawn Reilly and Curtis Morrison, who founded and volunteered for Progress Kentucky, respectively, bragged to him about how they recorded the meeting.
Much More from Mary Catherine Hamm at Hot Air and the “Water-Gating” of Mitch McConnell. Jacob Conway, who is on the executive committee of the Jefferson County Democratic Party outed ‘Progress Kentucky’ for the good of the party. Sounds more like a the rats fleeing the sinking ship and all individuals for themselves.
Dem Outed Liberal Group On McConnell Recordings For Good Of The Party
As stated at Legal Insurrection, “Mother Jones, who obtained and disseminated the tape as an exclusive, and David Corn better start lawyering up (which I assume they already have), because the question will become What did Mother Jones know about alleged McConnell bugging, and when did it know it?”
More from the illegal taping of the McConnell opposition meeting:
On Feb. 2, McConnell opened his campaign headquarters in the Watterson Office Park in Louisville and invited trusted GOP activists and select media outlets to an open house. The event lasted roughly two hours. Afterward, McConnell and several campaign advisors held a strategy session in an office meeting room.
Morrison and Reilly did not attend the open house, but they told Conway they arrived later and were able to hear the meeting from the hallway.
“They were in the hallway after the, I guess after the celebration and hoopla ended, apparently these people broke for lunch and had a strategy meeting, which is, in every campaign I’ve been affiliated with, makes perfect sense,” says Conway. “One of them held the elevator, the other one did the recording and they left. That was what they told to me from them directly.”
Posted April 12, 2013 by Scared Monkeys
Corruption, Crime, Democrat/Obama Propaganda, Democrats, Ethics, Gutter Politics, Invassion of Privacy, Liberals, Media, Media Bias, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Moonbats, Partisan hack, Politics, Progressives, Scandal, Senate, Senate Elections, Super PAC ads | 3 comments
66 Year Old Democrat Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota to Announce Retirement, Will Not Seek Reelection in 2014
Another challenge for Democrats and Harry Reid to hold the majority in 2014 …
United States Democrat Senator Tim Johnson from South Dakota does not plan to run for reelection in 2014 and is retiring. According to Roll Call, Johnson will announce his retirement plans on Tuesday. The 66 year old Democratic chairman of the banking committee proves to leave a void for Democrats in the Senate and a possible loss for the Donkeys in the conservative leaning state. Tim Johnson was elected to the Senate in 1997 after representing South Dakota in the House of Representatives. In 2006, Johnson had a leave from the Senate when a blood vessel bursting in his brain. Many thought he would retire at that time. We wish him well.
Senator Tim Johnson, the Democratic chairman of the powerful banking committee, does not plan to run for re-election when his current term ends in 2014, two sources familiar with the matter and a Capitol Hill staffer said on Monday.
Johnson, 66, a three-term senator from South Dakota, has scheduled a news conference for Tuesday in his home state to discuss what his aides described as “his future plans.”
His retirement would leave a vacant seat in a conservative-leaning state that could be difficult for Democrats to defend as they try to protect their majority in the Senate.
Political analysts expect Johnson’s son, Brendan Johnson, who is South Dakota’s U.S. attorney, to emerge as a potential Democratic candidate in the 2014 election. The younger Johnson has not announced any formal plans to seek the Senate seat.
Democrats face an uphill battle to retain the Senate in 2014 as the following Democratic Senators have announced they will be retiring: Tom Harkin of Iowa, Levin of Michigan, Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia. Republicans Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Mike Johanns of Nebraska also have said they will not run for re-election; however, these are both pretty safe GOP states.
However, if the GOP wants to win back the Senate, they best get their act together and worry less about pandering to groups they have no chance of winning and worry about their base. Republicans need to figure out what they stand for and what has brought them victories in the past.
Geraldo Rivera a Republican?
Fox News host Geraldo Rivera says that he is contemplating running for US Senate in New Jersey in 2014. Rivera would either be running against incumbent 89 year old Sen. Frank Lautenberg or Newark Mayor Cory Booker. However, Geraldo is no shoe in to be the GOP candidate for US Senate as there will be other challenges from GOP candidates like include state Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick of Westfield, state Sen. Joe Kyrillos of Monmouth County and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. Nothing has been finalized yet. If Geraldo does run for Senate he will have to give up his day job at Fox News.
Geraldo Rivera, the host of a Fox News show, said Thursday that he is “seriously contemplating running” for the U.S. Senate in his home state of New Jersey.
Rivera would be running for the seat that Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who is 89 and a Democrat, now occupies. Lautenberg is up for reelection in 2014 and has not confirmed whether he will run again.
Rivera said he would run as a Republican.
Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a Democrat, has made it known that he is considering running for the seat.
“I mention this only briefly, fasten your seatbelt,” Rivera said on his radio show. “I mentioned this only briefly to my wife … but I am and I’ve been in touch with some people in the Republican Party in New Jersey. I am truly contemplating running for Senate against Frank Lautenberg or Cory Booker.”