It appears that the Republican Florida primary may be called when the polls close …
The Florida primary is a two man race and according to most all polls, Mitt Romney has a lead over Newt Gingrich. Check out the numerous polls HERE that have Romney well ahead in the Sunshine state. At RCP average polling, Romney is up by double digits over Gingrich by 11.3%. Looks like it may be over thin FLA.
Mitt Romney up big in latest Marist/NBC poll. With just days to go before the all important Florida primary that may determine who shall win the GOP Presidential nomination, Romney up by 15% over Gingrich.
PPP has Romney up as well and the trend is strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney.
According to a Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll released late Saturday night, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads former GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich by 11 points. However, even more noticeable is that the poll shows that Romney is also leads President Barack Obama in a hypothetical match up 48% to 44%.
Gingrich is badly trailing Romney by 11 percentage points, garnering just 31 percent of likely Republican voters heading into Tuesday’s presidential primary, according to a Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll released late Saturday night.
President Barack Obama should be wary as well. Romney beats Obama by a 48-44 percent spread — a lead inside the error-margin, however — in a theoretical general-election matchup, the poll shows.
In the Republican primary, Romney’s lead looks insurmountable. It cuts across geographic, ethnic and gender lines. And the poll indicates Romney’s attack on Gingrich as a Freddie Mac insider is a hit with GOP voters.
As stated by Hugh Hewitt, Gingrich got some help from Sarah Palin and Herman Cain, but it has come too late because Newt built his candidacy on a promise built on a premise, both of which have been shattered this past week. Gingrich is supposed to be able to hammer Obama in a debate; however, Newt hardly accomplished that this past week against Romney. That is one thing that Newt will not be afforded if he ever did win the GOP nomination. There is no way a stumbling Obama with no teleprompter would ever agree to more than 2 or 3 debates.
The promise was that he could thrash President Obama in the debates and the premise is that there would be many debates just like the one in which he successfully jammed John King.
Of course Newt’s two bad debates this week (with Thursday’s being especially lousy) blew up the foundation for Newt’s campaign, and while the Speaker and his die-hard supporters want to blame various factors –the crowd, Romney’s claims etc– the average Florida voter got two previews of coming attractions and are judging the Speaker according to what they saw not by what he says they should have seen.
All the complaining in the world regarding the MSM because when running against President Obama, the One will have the liberal state run media in his back pocket looking to put their guy in office for 4 more years.
Newt Gingrich on a roll …
What a difference a South Carolina primary makes … Prior to the primary, the RCP average of polling was Romney 40.5%, Gingrich 22.0%, Santorum 15.0& and Paul 9.0%, or a +18.5% lead by Romney.
Flash-forward to present day and the RCP average polling is Gingrich 37.7%, Romney 30.3%, Santorum 11.7 % and Paul 10.3%. The Newtster now finds himself at +7.4% or a near 26% turnaround. No wonder Romney and his surrogates are in full attack against Gingrich and felt the need for Romney to finally release his tax returns.
According to PPP’s first poll following the SC Primary, Newt is up by 5%.
PPP’s first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead. He’s at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).
At Rasmussen, Gingrich leads by Romney by 9 points, 41% to 32%. WOW, just two weeks ago Mitt Romney had a 22% lead. Just a few days ago pundits were saying, if Romney wins SC, does that mean its all over and he has wrapped up the GOP nomination. Now, we learn that Santorum really won Iowa, Newt wins handily in SC and Gingrich prior to the first debate in the Sunshine state is up big in Florida. One now has to ask the question, if Newt Gingrich wins big in FLA, is the race over?
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).
RUT-ROH … Obama All Tied Up in Hypothetical Presidential Match Up with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul
So much for Barack Obama just having to worry about a head to head match up between himself and an unnamed Republican for the 2012 Presidential election. According to a recent CNN poll, Obama finds himself in a tie with GOP Presidential primary hopefuls Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. However, some wonder whether CNN is manipulating the polls again for for “Mittens”.
According to the survey, if the November election were held today and Romney were the Republican presidential nominee, 48% say they’d vote for the former Massachusetts governor, with 47% supporting the president. Romney’s one point margin is well within the poll’s sampling error.
The poll also indicates Paul statistically tied with Obama, with the president at 48% and the longtime congressman at 46%.
Full CNN poll can be read HERE.
WISCONSIN, A SWING STATE?
My what a difference a couple of years makes and the failed and unpopular policies of Barack Obama. In 2008 Obama won Wisconsin by a 56% to 43% margin. Flash-forward to 2011 and a PPP poll that shows that Obama has only a 44% approval rating, while 51% disapprove of the job he is doing as President. Democrats have won Wisconsin in the last six Presidential elections; however, that all may come to an end in 2012. Obama and Democrats are worried that the need to carry swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to win reelections; however, Obama’s job approval is so poor that even once considered solid blue Democrat states like Wisconsin are now in play.
Will Obama sport a cheese head to win over WI?
Obama continues to be unpopular in Wisconsin with only 44% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. It’s yet another competitive state at the Presidential level where his standing with independents is abysmal- he’s at 36/57 with them. In mid-May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden, Obama stood at 52/44 in the state. But he’s dropped 15 points on the margin over the subsequent five months.
As Jammie Wearing Fool reminds us, Republican Governor Scott Walker has a higher approval rating presently than Barack Obama in Wisconsin. So much for the LEFT’s and unions efforts to recall him. It is the underlying current across the country, the 2012 election will come as a surprise to many. There will be many “blue” states that are in play in 2012 that have always been considered true blue.
Aloha Means Goodbye …
Although President Barack Obama has no concerns that he will lose in Hawaii, his poll numbers there show that even the Aloha state Obama is struggling. In 2008, Obama beat McCain handily in Hawaii by a 72%b to 27% margin. In March 2011 Obama’s approval/disapproval was at +35 (64/29.) However, Obama’s approval polling number have even hit the skids in Hawaii. Barack Obama’s latest polling data in Hawaii has Obama with and approval rating of 56% with 36% of voters disapproving of the jobs he is doing. That +20 spread is down 15 points from previous polling from March.\
OUCH!!! That is how bad Obama is polling. He won the state with 72% of the vote and is presently at 56% approval ratings. That might as well be a loss. As stated at Jammie Wearing Fool, of course Obama is going to win in his state of origin
Jakarta Hawaii … but it just shows how weak Obama has become. If Obama can’t win Hawaii by 40+ percent; how is he ever going to win in battle ground states, let alone states that slightly lean Democrat? Obama is unelectable.
How bad is Barack Obama’s reelections chances … PPP has Connecticut, yes, the Nutmeg state is a 2012 Presidential Swing state.
According to Public Policy Polling, Connecticut is a toss up for Barack Obama in the 2012 election. How is this possible? Barack Obama won Connecticut in the 2008 elections by 23 points over John McCain, 61% – 38%. However, Obama’s approval rating in CT is presently underwater at 48% approve, 49% disapprove. Will states like Connecticut be considered battle grown/swing states in 2012?
Connecticut isn’t a place that would go on anybody’s list of swing states but Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney there, leading only 47-45.
Obama’s poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March- at that time Obama’s approval was a positive 55/39 spread. The decline has come because he’s unpopular with independents (41/53) and also because an unusually high 20% of Democrats disapprove of the job he’s doing.
With such a poor showing in Connecticut, the question becomes how will Obama’s poor approval ratings affect the other New England states? Once considered safe, dark blue states, Obama has made all of them battleground states and will be forced to campaign in them in 2012. Every one considered Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Virgina battleground states; however, Obama is on path to make states that he easily won in 2008 like Michigan, Wisconsin, and the New England one’s to be swing states in 2012.
PPP Poll Confirms that Republican Bob Turner Headed for Uspet Win Over Democrat David Weprin in NY-9 for Weiner’s Old Seat
GOP POISED FOR UPSET IN NY-9 …
Another day and another poll has been released that shows that Republican Bob Turner is headed for a huge and embarrassing upset over Democrat David Weprin in the Congressional NY-9 special election. This election is to replace the disgraced Anthony Weiner who left office in shame. According to a recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll, Republican Turner leads Democrat Weprin by 6 points, 47% to 41%, just days ahead of the special election.
Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.
Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
So why is a Democrat losing in such a heavily Democrat district? Can you say President Barack Obama. The one time so-called Savior of the Democrat party has now become its albatross and anchor, bringing the party down. As stated at Big Government, President Barack Obama is dragging Weprin down and his treatment of Israel is a deciding factor. In a district that Obama won in 2008 and now only has a mere 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. Obama only has a 16% approval rating with Independents.
Just last week there was a Siena Research Institute survey also showed that Turner was up by 6 points.
What a message this shall send to Obama and Democrats across the nation heading into the 2012 elections. If a Democrat can lose in a deep blue district like NY-09, they can lose anywhere.