PPP, Another Democrat Leaning Poll Weighted +4 Democrats with Faux Results, Obama’s lead up to 5 in Ohio Over Romney, 50%-45%

How disingenuous could some of these political polls really be?

Once again the PPP poll has come out with some rather suspect polling, done so to make it appear that Barack Obama got some kind of tremendous bounce from the DNC convention. The PPP poll shoes that Obama has a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of Ohio, 50% to 45%. Really? Is that your final answer? In order to get this polling data for Obama to be up by 5, the sampling used was as follows, Sampling of the PPP poll: Democrats 41%, Republican 37%, Independent/Other 22%. The full polling results can be seen HERE.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney’s numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney’s 83/13 advantage with Republicans.

With all due respect to OTB, I would hardly consider polling sampling used from exit polling from 2008 that was a once in a lifetime election with Obama/Democrat voting at record highs and Republican voting suppressed. Yes, I do tend to dismiss the PPP poll. Sorry, when a candidate has a lead with the all important Independent vote, I find it a bit unrealistic to believe that Obama is up by 5.

We shall see in November and how many more bad jobs reports come out. What we conveniently do not see in the poll is who do Ohioians think Obama has handled the number one issue in the United States, the economy. Sorry, this poll is what is called an outlier to get to the magical unicorn number of 50%.

Could Todd Akin Actually Be Electable? Poll Shows Akin-McCaskill Missouri US Senate Race is a Toss Up

Could the Missouri US Senate seat still be in play?

A week after the dust up and free for all when Republican Senate candidate Todd Aiken made the unfortunate phrase, “legitimate rape,” a poll has come out that shows the race is a dead heat. The most recent Democrat leaning PPP poll showed that incumbent Democrat McCaskill has support from 45% of likely Missouri voters compared with 44% for Akin.  Has the race gone back to a toss up from leans Obama?

Also 53% of Missouri voters, including 77% of Republicans, have accepted Mr. Akin’s apology for his comments. 54% think he should stay in the race, while just 37 percent think he should drop out.

Despite widespread assertions that Missouri Republican Rep. W. Todd Akin’s abortion remarks have made him a heavy underdog in the state’s U.S. Senate race, a Democratic-leaning polling firm released a poll Thursday showing him in a virtual dead heat with incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.

According to the survey by Public Policy Polling, Mrs. McCaskill has support from 45 percent of likely Missouri voters compared with 44 percent for Mr. Akin, a result that differs strongly from polls conducted last week by other firms.

Mr. Akin has been widely condemned by Democrats and Republicans since he made comments in an Aug. 19 television interview, in which he tried to explain his opposition to abortion for rape victims by saying that pregnancy is rare in cases of “legitimate rape.”

The current Public Policy Poll seems to be much more credible than the one they did last week that had a +9 R sampling. Now the recent PPP poll has a much more realistic and credible sampling of +2R. Has the Democrat party and the liberal MSM pulled another “Wellstone Memorial”? Have they overplayed their hand and beat up on Akin so much that he is now a sympathetic victim? For those who have forgot, Democrats turned the funeral service for Paul Wellstone into a shameful and inappropriate political campaign event.

The question has to be asked, just how bad a candidate is Democrat Claire McCaskill and how bad does the Shoe Me state want to show McCaskill the door in 2012?

A majority of voters say they do not approve of the job McCaskill is doing, indicating that even if Akin gave the McCaskill campaign a gift with his statements, she still has a steep climb ahead to convince undecided and independent voters to back her. Only 11 percent of Republicans in the poll said they’d vote for McCaskill.

Don’t Look Now But Obama’s lead in Iowa is Declining and Trending Toward Romney

According to a recent PPP poll, President Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa has all but disappeared. The PPP has Obama only leading by 2 points, 47% to 45% and below the 50% threshold usually necessary for an incumbent to win. The poll numbers are heading south for Obama in Iowa.  In July Obama was ahead of Romney 48-43 and in May it was 51-41. It is obvious that the polls are trending to Romney and there is no reason to think that this will not continue. In 2008 Obama won Iowa 54% to 45%. However, what a difference 4 years makes and a failed presidency.

Full poll results can be seen HERE.

PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama’s lead in the state declining all the way to two points. He’s at 47% to 45% for Mitt Romney. In July we found Obama ahead 48-43 and in May it was 51-41.

Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don’t really care for either Obama or Romney. Obama’s approval numbers are particularly poor with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice rather than a referendum. Voters aren’t big on Romney either with 47% rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion.

Hot Air asks a great question with regards to the polling data, “How is Obama translating a job approval of -5 into a two-point lead? Two ways. First, O more than makes up for Romney’s advantage among men by winning women”.  This is the second in August that has had bad news for Obama. A recent Rasmussen poll had Mitt Romney up over Obama in Iowa 46% to 44%. Check out the polling trend at RCP, Obama is in deep, deep trouble in Iowa.

Guess what Barack Obama was doing today … the fear and smear campaign in Iowa. So much for “Hope & Change”, take a good listen to the bitter and angry voice of Obama. What a difference 4 years makes.

MASS US Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown Has Lead in Another Poll over Democrat Elizabeth Warren 49% to 43% … PPP Poll Has Brown Up by 5%

WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU … Republican Scott Brown is surging in the polls over Democrat Elizabeth Warren in the battle for the US Senate seat for Massachusetts.

Don’t look now but the Democrats hope for taking back the US Senate seat in Massachusetts is slip, sliding away. According to a recent new poll Republican Scott Brown is starting to pull away from his challenger Democrat Elizabeth Warren. The poll from Kimball Political Consulting has Brown up by six points, 49% to 43%. Interestingly enough the sampling of the poll is … Party Affiliation – Democrat 36%, Republican 14%, Independent 51%. Remember, this is Massachusetts that has an overwhelming number of registered Democrat and Independent voters. Even with that advantage Brown is in the lead.

Scott Brown up by 5%, even 6% over Warren in Mass. US Senate race

A new poll of the Massachusetts Senate race shows Republican Scott Brown opening up a six-point lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren. Forty-nine percent of respondents support Brown, the incumbent running for reelection, while 43 percent support Warren. Nine percent are undecided.

The key is that Scott Brown is winning overwhelmingly amonh Independent voters.

“Senator Brown is winning decisively among independents but Warren still has a chance to come back. The data suggest that for Warren to close the gap it may be time for her to change her emphasis, from the cost of education to job creation,” said Spencer Kimball, Political Consultant and President of Kimball Political Consulting. “Romney, on the other hand, needs to repair his image in the Commonwealth where 54 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. However, his choice of Paul Ryan may help him with defining the deficit as the most important issue for voters and help his support among a strong Irish Catholic voting bloc in the bay state.”

This is the second poll in a week that has Scott Brown pulling away from Warren. A recent PPP poll had Scott Brown leading Warren 49% to 44%. The sampling break down was Democrat 38%, Republican 15%, Independent 48%.

Independents make up almost half (48%) of voters, one of their largest shares of any state’s electorate. Unlike in many states where the role of independents is overblown, here they are truly decisive. And right now Brown is winning with them by 26 points (58-32), similar to June (57-33). To top that off, Brown has grown a bit both with his own party and Warren’s. He has essentially locked up his base (91-7, up from 86-9 just under two months ago), and is now poaching 20% of Warren’s partisans, up from 18% and leaving her with only 73% of the party which accounts for two-and-a-half times as many voters as Brown’s does

It will be interesting to see what the next Rasmussen poll indicates in this all important Senate race.

No Wonder Obama Wants to Distract from the Econnomy … Romney Takes Lead in Wisconsin and Michigan

Don’t look now Team Obama, but you appear to be losing the Mid-West.

According to recent polling data, Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan has taken the lead in the Midwest states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Could this be true? Wisconsin does not come as that much of a surprise, although it should see that Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by double digits. So, a state that Obma won by 13% in 2008, Wisconsin is now an official swing state in 2012.  However, if Michigan is in play for Romney and they force Obama to spend money in a state that Obama won 57% to 41% in 2008.

As reported at The Hill, according to a recent PPP poll Romney edges Obama 48% to 47%. This comes in the wake of Rasmussen and CNN polls that seem to suggest the same. Check out the trending polling data toward Romney at RCP.

That’s a 7 percentage point gain for Romney, who trailed Obama 50 to 44 in the previous PPP poll, taken in July, before Rep. Ryan (R-Wis.) was added to the GOP ticket.

It’s the second consecutive survey of Wisconsin to find Romney has overtaken the president following the selection of Ryan as his running mate. A survey earlier this month from conservative-leaning polling outlet Rasmussen also gave Romney a 48-47 lead in the state.

In a new Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll, Romney now leads in Michigan. over Barack Obama 47.68% to 43.88%. According to RCP Obama still leads in Michigan, however, if Michigan is actually in play, Obama is in deep, deep trouble.

FMWB says this will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan’s Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. We ballot tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness:
•Congressman Ryan’s impact on voters’ decision to vote for Mitt Romney.
•Congressman Ryan’s controversial 2012 fiscal budget plan and voters support or opposition to the plan.

It is FMWB’s conclusion that the results to these questions will help initially either validate Ryan’s selection or provide messaging for Democrats that Ryan is not acceptable to the voters. As our data outlines, currently Romney and Ryan are received positively enough to help vault Romney into the lead. Our aggregate findings for this section are as follows:

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

(Barack Obama):                                                                                  43.88%
(Mitt Romney):                                                                                     47.68%
(Another candidate):                                                                              3.96%

Full poll results can be read HERE.

As the Lonely Conservative states … since when has Michigan been a swing state? This appears to be the new normal for Obama in 2012. A failed four year first term that has done little to nothing to help Americans out of their economic plight and is making things worse will cause many 2008 “Hope & Change” states to shift. As Powerline commented, “All of this is as it should be, given Obama’s terrible record. I suspect that Michigan will not be the last state that unexpectedly proves competitive.”

The end result is Obama is going to have to spend millions in order to defend what many thought would have been safe “blue” states in 2012.

Brian in a Blue State.

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