It’s Halloween time, but Senate Democrats have more to fear than ghosts, goblins, witches and vampires … NT Times and WAPO predict Democrats are the Walking “political” Dead …
With just days to go before the 2014 midterm November 4th elections, two very liberal papers, the New York Times and Washington Post, are predicting a GOP Senate takeover. The NY Times predicts that there is a 69% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate. According to the Times, Republicans will win Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana, leaving the seven most competitive states below in question. The NY Times predicts that Democrats will win the senate races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas; however, the GOP will run the rest of the seats in play in Georgia, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado. If the New York Times is correct, the GOP will hold a 52-48 control of the Senate after the elections.
According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 69% chance of gaining a majority.
State-by-State Probabilities #
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.
However, if Democrats think that the NYT’s 69% chance of a GOP victory is bad … the WAPO is predicting a 95% chance of the Republican party taking back control of the US Senate.
The model’s factors fall into three categories:
1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election. We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.
2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the major-party vote from the election six years before, which is the incumbent’s share of the Democratic and Republican votes, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.
3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races. (After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House model. There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office.)
Question: The NY Times and WAPO have been among the two most liberal media outlets that have carried the water for Barack Obama and Democrats, why are they calling the election now for the GOP? Is it because they want to put out faux-news and give Republicans voters a false sense of security or is it because they see the handwriting on the wall and are trying to mantain some sort of credibility by finally reporting the truth?
Harry Reid literally begs for money as he sees his job of Democrat Senate Majority Leader slipping away. Just curious Dingy Harry, if you can triple one’s gift, you need money how? I have a deal for you, You can just double my donation of $0.00.
But I’m emailing once more because this moment is absolutely critical. I know you’re a busy person, but this is an absolute MUST-READ:
Our Final Weekend Get Out The Vote Push is on the chopping block: We’re still $1,389,071 short with 24 hours left.
If we don’t fill that budget gap, we’ll be forced to scale back our plans to mobilize 575,000 voters this weekend. These are voters who could determine the outcome of the whole Senate.
I’m begging for your help to close the gap IMMEDIATELY. If we fall short before the last end-of-month deadline tomorrow, our chance to keep the Senate gets a whole lot smaller.
Will you pitch in to the Final Weekend GOTV Push before the final deadline in 24 hours? We’ll triple-match your gift.
Other nightmarish 2014 US Senate predictions for Democrats. None of the pollsters are predicting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and Harry Reid (NV-D) will no longer be Senate Majority Leader.
Harvard Poll: Millennial Voters Turn on Barack Obama and Democrats, Young Voters To Vote GOP over Dems 51% to 47%
Millennial Voters Abandon Barack Obama and his lies of “Hope and Change”.
My how times have changed, especially when Millennial finally realized they were duped by Barack Obama who has done little for hope and change, transparency or to change anything in Washington, DC except make things worse. Barack Obama and Democrats have lost the “Millennial Vote”. A shocking Harvard University poll of 2,029 18- to 29-year-olds showed that they will be“definitely be voting,” 51% want the Republicans in charge, while 47% are favoring Democratic control. According to the poll, Democrats are even losing ground with Hispanics as well. How bad is it for Democrats when Millennials abandon Democratic sinking ship.
And you wonder why Democrat candidates are avoiding the “toxic” president and can not even find it in themselves to even say they have voted for him, when they obviously had. If all of this polling does turn out to be correct, the Democrats could be experiencing a colossal disaster election eve.
Harvard University on Wednesday provided new proof that the Democrats are going to be broadsided in Tuesday’s national elections as millennial voters, in a shocking shift, now prefer a Republican-controlled Congress and give President Obama his second lowest grade ever.
A new and massive poll of 2,029 18- to 29-year-olds from Harvard’s Institute of Politics just released found that of those who say they will “definitely be voting,” 51 percent want the GOP in charge, 47 percent favoring Democratic control.
The unexpected anti-Democratic swing prompted a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reporter quizzing poll experts on a media conference call to IOP blurted out, “How did the Democrats and Obama screw this up?”
Because the numbers are close, however, Harvard said the kid vote is “up for grabs.”
Still, it is a huge shift from the last IOP midterm poll. In 2010, younger voters kept to their historic trend with 55 percent favoring Democrats, 43 percent Republicans. That is an eight-point change, very good news for the Republicans who had feared that the Obama generation would show up at the polls and in knee-jerk fashion simply pull the Democratic levers.
The shift away from Democrats is likely fed by the millennial dissatisfaction with Obama. The poll from IOP, located at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass., found their approval of Obama near the low-water mark, at just 43 percent. It dipped below, to 41 percent, just once.
Harvard University Institute of Politics: More damning poll numbers for Democrats from one of their core constituencies.
President Obama’s Job Approval Rating Decreases, Nears Low-Water mark.
Overall, President Obama’s job performance among America’s 18-29 year-olds has fallen from 47% (April 2014) to 43 percent (53%: disapprove), the second-lowest rating in the IOP polls since he took office (41%: November 2013). Among 18-29 year-olds saying they will “definitely be voting in November,” the president’s job approval rating is 42 percent, with 56% saying they disapprove.
Hispanic Support for President Obama is Weakening.
Support for the president among young Hispanics, who just two years ago supported Obama over Mitt Romney by 51-points (74% to 23%), appears to be weakening. The president’s job approval rating among Hispanics now sits at the lowest since the IOP began tracking the administration in 2009, with only 49 percent saying they approve (46% disapprove) – a significant drop from six months ago among the young Hispanic community (60%: April 2014) and a sharp slide from five years ago (81%: November 2009).
A new CNN poll just one week before the 2014 midterm elections shoe that 68% of voters are angry, not unhappy, angry with the direction of the country. The poll also states that 53% of Americans disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance. Both of these poll issues do not bode well for Democrats. However, CNN also brings up a very key point from the polls which is the reason why the 2014 elections do not appear to be a “wave” election, as they should be. Voter turn out and enthusiasm means everything, especially in a midterm election. According to the CNN poll, 36% of Republican voters said they are “extremely” or “very enthusiastic,” about voting this year, as opposed to only 26% of Democrats. The 10% difference sounds good, doesn’t it, but is it really?
Back in the 2010 midterm elections when the GOP was swept into control in the House … a shellacking for Democrats, the enthusiasm gap was 54% to 34% in favor of Republicans. Wonder why the GOP is not sealing the deal to take control of the Senate and pick up 6, 7, 8 or even 9 seats during a time of a majorly unpopular president? Republicans have campaigned on nothing and have ignored their base. If they fail to gain control of the Senate, they will have no one to blame but themselves.
Nearly 7 in 10 Americans are angry at the direction the country is headed and 53% of Americans disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance, two troubling signs for Democrats one week before the midterm elections, a new CNN/ORC International Poll shows.
Democrats are battling to try and save the Senate majority, while hoping to prevent more losses in the House, which the GOP controls by a 234 to 201 margin.
In the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of six seats, and several state polls in the past month of contested races show that Democrats are in danger of losing control of the majority, and thus Congress. Currently, Democrats control the Senate by a 55-45 margin with two of those seats held by independents that align themselves politically with Democrats.
The CNN/ORC poll shows that 30% of Americans are “very angry” and 38% are “somewhat angry” about the way things are going in the country, while 31% expressed “no anger” at all. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes the 31% of “very angry” Americans matches the mood of the country in 2010 when Republicans took back control of the House.
WAPO-ABC News Poll: Obama Hits News Low with 40% Approval Rating … Only 33% Among Independents … Democrats in Serious Trouble
HEY AMERICA, HOW’S THAT HOPEY-CHANGEY STUFF WORKING OUT FOR YA?
According to the most recent WAPO-ABC News poll, Barack Obama has hit an all-time low with an approval rating at 40% and a 51% disapproval. Actually, it is curious as to why it is not even lower. Among Independents, Obama only has a 33% approval. Under Obama’s watch, everything is a colossal disaster. Nothing is going good in the United States or around the world.
The US economy is a floundering mess, illegal immigration, ISIS is on the rise and now we have the October surprise of Ebola in the United States. Barack Obama polls poorly on all major political issues as we are week’s ahead of the November midterm elections and early voting has begun in some states.
Can you say EPIC FAILURE!!!
Heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign, the political landscape continues to tilt in favor of the Republican Party, with President Obama’s overall approval rating at the lowest level of his presidency and GOP voters signaling greater likelihood than Democrats that they will cast ballots, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Americans are looking to November and beyond with dissatisfaction about the state of the country and the political leadership in Washington. Two-thirds say the country is seriously off-track. And while more than 6 in 10 say the president lacks a clear plan for governing, …
See all polling data HERE.
The overall job approval rating average is not much better for Obama. According to RCP, only 42.0% approve, while 52.4% disapprove.
Barack Obama and his political party are heading into the midterm elections in trouble. The president’s 40 percent job approval rating in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the lowest of his career – and the Democratic Party’s popularity is its weakest in polling back 30 years, with more than half of Americans seeing the party unfavorably for the first time.
The Republican Party is even more unpopular. But benefitting from their supporters’ greater likelihood of voting, GOP candidates nonetheless hold a 50-43 percent lead among likely voters for U.S. House seats in the Nov. 4 election.
Posted October 16, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
Approval Rating, Barack Obama, Community Agitator, Epic Fail, Iraq, Islamist, Jihad, Leading from Behind, Lost in Smallness, Mexico, Misleader, Polls, Russia, Scandal, Terrorism, The Lying King, US National Security, WAPO-ABC News, War on Terror, West Africa | 5 comments
WAPO/ABC Poll: 67% of Americans Support a Travel Ban From Ebola Affected Countries of West Africa Like Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
TWO THIRDS, 67% OF AMERICANS ARE IN FAVOR OF TRAVEL BANS FROM COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY EBOLA … BARACK OBAMA GOLFS.
According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, 67% of Americans are in favor of travel bans for individuals from countries affected by Ebola, namely the West African ravaged countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. JUST 67%? Look for this number to grow considerably after a second transmitted case of Ebola has now been diagnosed in Dallas, Texas.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans are concerned about a widespread epidemic of the Ebola virus in the United States, and about as many in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say the federal government is not doing enough to prevent it.
Indeed, more than four in 10 – 43 percent are worried that they or an immediate family member might catch the disease. That’s similar to the level of concern about other viral outbreaks in some previous ABC/Post polls, but more consequential, given Ebola’s high mortality rate.
From The Daily Caller points out that this is not a Republican or Democrat partisan issue … their is support on both sides to put a travel ban in place. Except from the always political, PC, community organizer, Barack Obama.
The public’s support for an Ebola travel ban is growing fast, prompting more Republican and Democratic politicians to demand a White House policy reversal.
Sixty seven percent of Americans said they would favor “restricting entry to the United States by people who’ve been in affected countries,” according to a new poll by The Washington Post and the ABC News.
Only 29 percent opposed the travel curbs on people arriving from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, where 4,000 people have already died from the lethal and invasive disease.
That attitude is spurring politicians to challenge President Barack Obama’s repeated opposition to any restrictions on the entry of apparently healthy Africans who may carry the disease.
Obama’s progressive-style opposition to the travel ban may become a problem for Democrats during the remaining three weeks of the 2014 campaign, especially if more Americans are infected with the deadly disease.
Gallup Poll: Barack Obama 39% Approval – 56% Disapprove … Obama Dragging Down the Democrats Ahead of the 2014 Elections
BARACK OBAMA … THE TOXIC PRESIDENT.
Democrats have more to worry about than just voter turnout for the 2014 midterm election. The Obama wave that swept the Democrats into power is also going to be the tsunami that destroys them. Don’t look for President Barack Obama to be campaigning in any of the 2014 Senate battleground states from now until election day. According to the most recent Gallup poll, 3 day rolling average, Obama’s approval rating is at 39%, disapproval stands at 56%. It is not just one poll that has Obama in the 30 percent approval range, it is one of many including Reuters and Fox News. Is it any wonder why no Democrat candidate in a close race or any red state Senate Democrats want him any where near their campaigns?
Senate Democrat candidates in Alaska, Louisiana, South Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Colorado find themselves in serious trouble with Obama no where to be found. Those Democrats that were swept into office on the coattails of the BS myth of “hope & Change” now find themselves at its backlash.
AMERICANS ARE FED UP WITH THE FEDS … 24% of Americans polled said that they strongly supported or tended to support the idea of their state breaking away from the US. Sorry, I interpret the poll just a little differently. One in four Americans do not really want to secede, they want the United States of America to be the United States of America and what the Founders intended it to be. Our federal government was set up to be a Republic and a government of, by and for, “We the People”. That is hardly what has taken place in the past 8 years under Barack Obama, Democrats and establishment Republicans.
Some 23.9 percent of Americans polled from Aug. 23 through Sept. 16 said they strongly supported or tended to support the idea of their state breaking away, while 53.3 percent of the 8,952 respondents strongly opposed or tended to oppose the notion.
The urge to sever ties with Washington cuts across party lines and regions, though Republicans and residents of rural Western states are generally warmer to the idea than Democrats and Northeasterners, according to the poll.
Anger with President Barack Obama’s handling of issues ranging from healthcare reform to the rise of Islamic State militants drives some of the feeling, with Republican respondents citing dissatisfaction with his administration as coloring their thinking.
Developing, much more to follow.
CNN – State of the Union: Former White House Press Secretary & CNN Commentator Jay Carney says “It’s not going to be a good year for Democrats”
Former White House Press Secretary, now CNN commentator appeared on CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ with Candy Crowley and stated, ”It’s not going to be a good year for Democrats by definition.” The majority of the panel agreed that the GOP had the advantage in this upcoming 2014 midterm of taking control in the US Senate.
The Republicans need a net pick up of 6 seats in order to gain control. My person opinion is that because of the nature of the seats held by Democrats in red states being up for election and Obama’s poor job approval polling in those states, the GOP will most likely get to a +6, but it will not be a wave election. Too many establishment Republicans are nothing but Democrat light and the establishment still attacks its base as they run on ideas that are no part of the GOP platform.
“It’s not going to be a good year for Democrats by definition,” Carney said. “The sixth year is always particularly bad for a president’s party. You couple that with the fact so many seats are defended by Democrats in red states where Mitt Romney did very well against the president, double-digits in most cases, and there’s no outcome in November that anybody could say would be great for Democrats, except for barely holding onto the Senate.”
Carney added that this by no means meant the GOP was in the clear. “The problem for Republicans if they win is Americans begin to think that ‘we hate Congress’ and it is now clear that one party is in control of Congress.”
NBC/WSJ Poll: Large Majority of Americans Support Barack Obama Mission to Destroy ISIS, But Have No Confidence That He Can Do So
THIS IS WHY YOU NEVER ELECT, LET ALONE REELECT A COMMUNITY AGITATOR TO BE PRESIDENT AND COMMANDER IN CHIEF … A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE.
It is a sad state of affairs in the White House these days and the people have lost confidence in President Barack Obama. In the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, although 62% of voters say that they support Obama’s decision to take action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, however, even more, 68%, say they have little to some confidence that he can reach his goals of degrading and eliminating ISIS. Sadly, that seems to be Obama’s own opinion as well with his mixed messages and a plan that counts on premises that he was against just months ago.
It is hard to win a war on terror when you cannot even bring yourself to say it.
Nearly 70 percent of Americans say they lack confidence that the U.S. will achieve its goals in fighting the terrorist group ISIS, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Annenberg poll. The findings come in the wake of President Barack Obama’s national address announcing new measures to combat the Sunni militants.
Pressure is mounting on the U.S. and its allies to cripple the militants, who have waged a brutal campaign across Syria and Iraq. ISIS already has beheaded two American journalists and on Saturday released a video showing the execution of a third Westerner, British aid worker David Haines.
The poll – conducted before the latest execution emerged – showed that a combined 68 percent of Americans say they have “very little” or “just some” confidence that Obama’s goals of degrading and eliminating the threat posed by ISIS will be achieved. Just 28 percent said they had “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence. Still, 62 percent of voters say they support Obama’s decision to take action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, while 22 percent oppose it.
The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that just 38% of voters approve of Obama’s job in handling foreign policy.Which is actually higher than the most recent FOX News poll that has Obama’s approval rating in dealing with foreign police at 34% approve and 59% disapprove.
Posted September 14, 2014 by Scared Monkeys
America - United States, Barack Obama, Bystander in Chief, Community Agitator, Epic Fail, Foreign Policy, ISIS, Islam/Muslims, Islamist, Islamofascist, Jihad, Leading from Behind, Misleader, NBC/WSJ Poll, Polls, Radical Islam, Terrorism, War on Terror | 8 comments
Republicans need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections in order to wrestle control away from Harry Reid and Democrats.
The GOP need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in order to gain control of the US Senate. A recent NBC/Marist poll shows that although Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall is still leading in Colorado, Republicans are surging in the key “red” state races in Kentucky and Arkansas. US Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%. Although Kentucky is not a pickup for the GOP, some Democrats have thought that it could be a possible loss for the GOP. However, that does not appear to be the case. In reality, the GOP already is at a +3 as Republicans will pick up seats in the open Senate races formerly held by Democrats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.
Other Senate seats currently held by Democrats that are now in play include Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. My person opinion is that the GOP with have a net pick up of 7, possibly 8 Senate seats. If all things go right, it could be 9, but my gut feeling says this will not be a wave election like in 2010 because too many establishment Republicans are running and the establishment appears to have no clue that their conservative base is what wins elections. Not being Democrat light.
US Rep. Cotton (R-AR) calls Democrat Sen. Pryor a good Obama foot soldier, who was the deciding vote for Obamacare and who has voted with Obama 93% of the time.
Republican Senate candidates have opened up leads in the key states of Arkansas and Kentucky, putting them in a strong position to win back the U.S. Senate, according to new NBC News/Marist polls.
But another NBC/Marist poll shows Democrats holding on in the blue state of Colorado, suggesting a limit to the gains that Republicans could make in November.
In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.
In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.
And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.