Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Donald Trump Ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa 46% – 39%


According to the most recent Des Moines Register poll, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in Iowa by 7 points, 46% to 39%. This is usually an accurate and trusted poll in Iowa. In 2008 Obama won Iowa 54% – 45% and in 2012 Obama won it 52% to 46%.; however, it would seem by all indications that Donald Trump has flipped Iowa red.

Des Moines Register:

Donald Trump has surged to a 7-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters, firmly establishing the Republican presidential nominee as the favorite to win the state’s six electoral votes on Tuesday.

Trump is the top choice for 46 percent of Iowans who have already cast a ballot or plan to do so on Election Day, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, compared to 39 percent who say they’re for Clinton.

That makes the state Trump’s to lose, political analyst Amy Walter said.

Trump leads among several key demographic groups, including men, self-identified independents, young and middle-aged voters and those without a college degree.

Forty-one percent of independents support Trump, compared to 34 percent who back Clinton. Trump likewise leads by 5 percentage points — 43 to 38 — among voters under 35.

The Key to a Donald Trump Presidential Victory Could Be New Hampsire … 3 Polls Have Him Tied or Ahead


Just yesterday we were discussing the WBUR poll in New Hampshire that showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 1 percentage point. It turns out that 3 polls were released on Thursday in New Hampshire and all show either Donald Trump tied or ahead of Hillary Clinton. Could there really be a shift in the polls in New Hampshire this late in the game? We shall see next Thursday. If Trump has a chance of winning, he probably needs to take NH.

RCP NH Poll 110416

Republican nominee Donald Trump, who trailed Hillary Clinton by near-double digits in the state of New Hampshire last month, has suddenly mounted a comeback in the key battleground state.

Three polls in the Granite State released Thursday showed Trump at least tied with Clinton, the Democratic nominee, in the state. In one survey, he gained a 1-point advantage, and in another, he was up 5 points.

It was a pointed shift from just more than a week ago, when Clinton led by an average of 8 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average of the state. The swing comes amid signs that a turbulent week for the Clinton campaign — including the news of the FBI’s reactivated investigation into her private email server — has taken a toll on the Democratic nominee’s poll numbers.

A Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll that showed the race deadlocked at 42-42, for example, found that 49% of New Hampshire voters said the revelations made them less likely to support Clinton, while 45% said they wouldn’t affect their votes.

“Both Trump and Clinton seek to win 48% of the New Hampshire vote, which should be good enough to win the state,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

WBUR Poll: Donald Trump Edges Ahead Of Clinton 40% – 39% in New Hampshire


According to the most recent WBUR poll of likely voters in New Hampshire, Republican Donald Trump now leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by one pont, 40% to 39% with Gary Johnson at 10% and Jill Stein at 3%. With less than a week to go before election day, Trump has the momentum and states where Hillary and Democrats thought was in the already won category are now trending toward Trump. In reviewing the RCP average polling that shows Clinton in the lad in NH, many of these polls were taken before the FBI announced that they were reopening the private server/email case and the recent news of the Clinton Foundation FBI investigation.

As one who used to live in the Granite state, I can’t imagine a state with a motto, “Live Free or Die” could ever vote for Hillary. Donald Trump needs to pick off blue states to get to 270 Electoral Votes needed to win the 2016 presidential election.

Poll_NH 103116

 A new WBUR poll of likely voters in New Hampshire finds that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are now in a dead heat with just five days to go before Election Day.

The survey also finds Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, by 6 points in one of the key races that could determine which party will control the U.S. Senate.

The poll is consistent with a number of surveys across the country that suggest the presidential race has tightened considerably.

In the last WBUR poll — just three weeks ago — Clinton led Trump by 3 percentage points in New Hampshire. This new poll (topline, crosstabs) now shows Trump in front, with a razor thin 1-point lead, well within the 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

Among the most striking findings of the poll is how much voters continue to dislike both candidates.  Only 37 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Trump, which is up slightly from three weeks ago. While just 36 percent have a favorable view of Clinton, which is down a bit.

So for the first time, Clinton is viewed slightly less favorably than Trump.

“When we started this campaign, Trump was the most disliked candidate ever to be nominated by a major party, and Hillary Clinton was the second most disliked,” Koczela said. “So this voter distaste for the candidates is not a new dynamic, but it has not improved at all.”

Donald Trump will wrap up his presidential bid where it all began: New Hampshire.

Donald Trump will wrap up his presidential bid where it all began: New Hampshire. The GOP nominee will host his final rally before Election Day in Manchester, where he held his first official campaign event and where he claimed his first primary state victory.

But Trump’s decision to end in the Granite State may be more than nostalgia and symbolism. Polls are tightening in New Hampshire and show Trump within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, whose lead there has been cut in half over the last week in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Monmouth Poll Shows Race is Tightening in PA … Hillary Only Ahead by 4 Over Trump, Down from 10

According to a recent Monmouth University poll, the presidential race in Pennsylvania appears to be getting closer and closer. Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 44% back Trump.  Another 3% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party. Her lead was 10 just a month ago, but as the scandals mount, Hillary’s lead is shrinking. The RCP average of polling shows Hillary up by 3.4 and this state will be a tough one to win for Trump; however, all the polls are trending in his direction. The Keystone state will be a major indicator on election night as to how Trump is doing nationally. The question is, will Hillary pick up the necessary votes in Philly and Pittsburgh to win the state?


Hillary Clinton maintains the lead in Pennsylvania, although by a smaller margin than one month ago.  The Monmouth University Poll  finds she currently has a 4 point edge over Donald Trump, which is down from a 10 point lead in October and an 8 point lead in August.  In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has pulled ahead of GOP incumbent Pat Toomey by 3 points.  The race was tied last month, while McGinty had a 4 point lead in the summer.

Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 44% back Trump.  Another 3% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party.  This marks a narrowing of Clinton’s 50% to 40% lead from one month ago and her late August advantage of 48% to 40% over Trump.

“Clinton is still in the lead, but the race has tightened in the past four weeks. It looks like this shift was in the works even before Friday’s FBI bombshell, which has made only a small contribution to this overall narrowing,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State.  Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support.  The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news.  Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news.

WAPO-ABC Tracking Poll Has Race Tied …. Donald Trump Opens Up an 8 Point Edge on Honesty Over #Lying Crooked Hillary


According to the most recent WAPO-ABC News poll, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is a tie. However, there is no honest way that Hillary or her minions can spin these poll numbers in a positive light. She has dropped 12 points in just over a week and trending in the wrong direct with a week to go before the election. Making matters even worse for Hillary Clinton is that once again, the American electorate sees her as untrustworthy. Donald Trump has opened up an eight-point advantage over Clinton on which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, leading 46 to 38 percent among likely voters. 90% of Republicans disapprove of Hillary’s handling of the emails, 67% of Independents and even 29% of Democrats. We shall see how this plays out a week from now.

See tracking poll here.

WAPO poll Hillary Untrustworthy

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in the new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll which finds Trump now holds an edge on which candidate is honest and trustworthy.

A 59 percent majority of likely voters disapprove of Clinton’s handling of questions about her use of personal email while secretary of state. This number, however, is no higher than the 60 percent who disapproved just over one week ago, before the FBI’s announcement Friday that it may examine additional emails after previously closing its investigation in June.

However, Trump has opened up an eight-point advantage over Clinton on which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, leading 46 to 38 percent among likely voters. The two candidates were tied on this measure the last time a Post-ABC poll asked the question in September; when asked individually, past polls found majorities seeing each candidate as dishonest.

Honesty and Clinton’s emails

Republicans are united in their criticism of Clinton’s handling of questions about her email use while secretary of state, with 90 percent saying they disapprove of her response including 85  percent who disapprove “strongly.” But while Republicans were already very unlikely to consider backing Clinton this year, the issue’s reprisal now threatens her standing with independents and enthusiasm among Democrats.

Fully 67 percent of independents in the latest survey disapprove of Clinton’s handling of questions on this issue (56 percent “strongly”), and even 29 percent of Democrats give her negative marks for the way she’s addressed the email issue.

Independents and Democrats are where Clinton has lost the most ground to Trump on the question of honesty since early fall.

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