The Obama Convention Bounce is Gone … Obama Gallup Poll Lead Down to 1 Over Romney

Where has the Obama Democrat Convention bounce go? Can you say it’s completely gone the way of the DoDo bird. The most recent Gallup tracking poll has President Barack Obama with only a 1 point lead over Mitt Romney, far within the margin of error and basically a statistical tie. Not only has Obama’s lead fallen, so has his approval rating. What happened to that great Obama convention bounce?  To paraphrase as one of my favorite obscure 1980′s bands Chilliwack:

Gone gone gone, its been gone so long
Its been gone gone gone so long
Gone gone gone, its been gone so long
Its been gone gone gone so long
Gone gone gone, its been gone so long
gone gone gone so long

As reported at The Hill, Obama’s 7% lead following the DNC convention is gone.Can you say “vanished” without a trace!

Obama’s lead widened to 7 points in the days following the Charlotte, N.C., convention earlier this month, but Tuesday’s data show the race returning the level where it’s been throughout most of the contest.

Prior to the conventions, Gallup’s poll had been almost completely static, with each candidate averaging 46 percent since May.

The president’s approval rating also dipped back below 50 percent for the first time since the convention.

Forty-nine percent said they approve of the job the president is doing, compared to 45 who say they disapprove. That’s still slightly better than the last few months, when Obama hovered around break-even and occasionally dipped into negative territory.

Barack Obama Opens Up 4 Point Lead Over Romney in Gallup National Poll Following DNC Convention … Will Dismal Economic Jobs Report Affect Bounce?

It would appear that Barack Obama has received a post convention bounce according to two polls released on Saturday. The Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama at 49% support among registered voters and GOP candidate Mitt Romney with 45%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday also has a Obama up; however, it is reported with a rather misleading title that Obama leads despite jobs data. Sorry, but the pathetic, anemic and poor jobs report came out on Friday. That is hardly enough time to feel the effects in a poll released on Saturday. Also, the polls for the swing states are going to be a better predictor for who shall be the next President of the United States. In not one battleground state is Obama polling at 50% or better.

President Obama’s post-convention bounce has grown to four points according to two new polls released Saturday.

Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Obama at 49 percent support among registered voters to GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s 45 percent.

The new figures show a 1-point increase for Obama from Friday’s results and reflects voter sentiment after the final day of the Democratic National Convention.

The Gateway Pundit reminds us to be not afraid, Gallup had Jimmy Carter up 4 points over Ronald Reagan in September 1980. We all know how that election turned out and how the undecided voted. I ma hardly suggesting that Romney will win like Reagan did in 1980; however, it is most likely that undecided voters will break to the challenger Romney due to the poor economy.

At some point Americans are going to have to determine how 43+ months of an unemployment rate over 8%, a record number of Americans on food stamps, a national debt over $16 trillion and Barack Obama with no answers to any of it except for more of the same and asking for more time is the answer. Any one with a clue, who actually loves America and wants the United States to go forward and not wind up in economic disaster will vote for Romney.

August Unemployment Numbers Not Looking Good for Barack Obama … However, Obama More Interested in Romney’s Taxes

Hey America, How’s that “Hopey-Changey” thing working out for ya?

Not only was unemployment up in 44 states in July 2012, according to Gallup, the August numbers do not look good either. Gallup’s unemployment survey shows the Obama economy is getting even worse and there was an uptick in joblessness in their latest survey of 30,000 households. The unemployment numbers are due out on September 7, the day after the Democrat National Convention end. Any perceived bounce that Obama would have received from the convention will be squashed by a bad jobs report.

As stated at the PJ Tatler, unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the next two weeks, unemployment for the month will either stay the same, or rise to as much as 8.7%.

New Gallup unemployment data suggest an increase in the government’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August when it is reported on Friday, Sept. 7. During recent months, Gallup’s measurements have been more optimistic than those of the BLS. Barring a sharp reversal in this relationship, the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate might be expected to stay the same or increase in August.

Gallup’s Daily tracking of the unemployment situation is based on interviews with more than 30,000 adults over the 30 days ending Aug. 15, and shows essentially no change in the unadjusted unemployment rate at 8.3% compared to 8.2% in July. In turn, this suggests that the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate could increase to 8.7% in July from 8.6% in June. The government’s measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has been known to differ with Gallup’s findings, but a drop of 0.3% in July is necessary to bring the government’s unadjusted rate down to Gallup levels.

More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data. Further, Gallup’s data show the labor force participation rate to be increasing in August. In turn, that could have an additional negative impact on the unemployment rate for August if the government’s data show a similar pattern.

Any increase in the unemployment rate is going to be devastating to Obama’s reelection chances. Is it any wonder why Obama keeps trying to make Romney’s tax returns an issue or Biden is doing a gaffe a day? These are intentional distractions meant to trick Americans. It is Obama’s slight of hand magic trick; however, the only thing disappearing are jobs.

Remember when  Barack Obama said, that if he can’t turn the economy around after three years “then there is going to be a one term proposition”? It is time to hold Obama to his word in the 2012 Presidential election.

Rut-Roh, More 2008 Obama Voters Switching Sides Than Those Who Voted for McCain in 2012 Presidential Election

Yet just another example of my what a difference four years makes …

According to a recent Gallup poll, more individuals who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are switching sides as opposed to those who voted for John McCain. More people are remaining loyal to the GOP and Mitt Romney than they are to Obama in the 2012 Presidential election. In an election that is supposed to be a squeaker, a shifting electorate away from Obama, no matter how small is important and telling.  The National Review brings up a key and important point in that this 9% change from Obama in 2008 makes many of today’s polling data rather suspect when we are witness to polling data demographics heavily weighted to Democrats.

Eighty-six percent of voters who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are backing Obama again this year, a smaller proportion than the 92% of 2008 John McCain voters who are supporting 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Nine percent of 2008 Obama voters have switched to supporting Romney this year, while 5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama.

Thus, it follows that fewer voters are supporting Obama this year than in 2008. But the race remains close because Obama’s margin in 2008 was large enough that he could still be tied or in the lead this year if his support is a few percentage points lower.

The data do underscore the high degree of party loyalty in voting across the last two elections. All told, 79% of registered voters are supporting the same party’s candidate in 2012 as in 2008.

The Bain of Obama’s Economic, Presidential Existence: Romney Preferred by 2 to 1 Margin over Obama to Handle the Economy …

The “Bain” of Barack Obama’s economic existence …

Try as Obama might, but his attack ads against Mitt Romney’s business record and Bain Capital have failed miserably. Obama has spent millions of dollars on negative ads trying to smear Mitt Romney and it did little to nothing. Much like Obama’s presidency, the Obama ads have been an epic fail.

The economy, job creation and unemployment are the number one issue fir the upcoming 2012 Presidential election. According to the most recent USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Mitt Romney is preferred over Obama 63% to 29% in handling the economy. Even more amazing is that those surveyed say Mit Romney’s background in business, including his time at the private equity firm Bain Capital, makes Romney capable of making good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the economy. So much for Obama’s trivial and petty political ads against Romney and Bain Capital that have proved to be misrepresentations. American know better, they are more concerned with the economy, not attack ads from a failed President.

Despite concerted Democratic attacks on his business record, Republican challenger Mitt Romney scores a significant advantage over President Obama when it comes to managing the economy, reducing the federal budget deficit and creating jobs, a national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years.

The findings raise questions about Obama’s strategy of targeting Bain’s record in outsourcing jobs and hammering Romney for refusing to commit to releasing more than two years of his tax returns. Instead, Americans seem focused on the economy, where disappointment with the fragile recovery and the 8.2% unemployment rate are costing the president.

Powerline discusses a point that many have pondered, including us at Scared Monkeys … how on earth is Barack Obama above water, tied in the Presidential polls or even close when there is just one disastrous poll after another stating that no one trusts him with the economy? Ultimately, the answer is that the polls are probably not as close as the vote will be in November. When give a choice of 4 more years of the nightmare of Obama and a change to bring back American exceptionalism, the voters will go against Obama.