Larry J. Sabato & The Crystal Ball’s Final 2010 Midterm Call: GOP +55 House; GOP +8 Senate

Political election guru and handicapper Larry J. Sabato at the Crystal Ball has made his final call for the House and Senate for the 2010 midterm elections and they are as follows … Republicans will pick up +55 seats in the House and+8 seats in the Senate. Sabato also predicting a GOP pick-up of 8 to 9 Governors.

HOUSE
Even at this late date, we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains, based on more complete information now available to all. Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling. In fact, if you’ll go back to our pre-Labor Day analysis, that’s exactly what we suggested +47 would end up being.

SENATE
The Crystal Ball has operated within a very narrow range all year. When others were projecting GOP Senate gains of just +3-4, we were already at +6. Depending on the primary results and other circumstances, we’ve landed between +6 and +9 in the last half-year. We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

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Democrat Doug Schoen Poll: 56% of Americans Want President Barack Obama Fired in 2012

56% of likely voters want Obama to be a one term “One-der”.

My how the times have changed and it took less than two years for America to become fed up with Obama and Democrats. As if you thought it could not get any worse for Democrats and President Barack Hussein Obama. According to a recent Democrat pollster Doug Schoen, 56% of likely American voter want President Obama fired in 2012. Also, do you miss George W. Bush? The continuous Democrat “blame Bush” campaign has been a failure for Obama. Americans wanted leadership and instead they got a finger pointer who says, the buck stops with everyone else, but Obama.  It would seem so as the poll also showed that 48% of likely voters thought GWB was a better President than BO. The complete poll can be seen HERE.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, rapped by the White House for pledging to make Barack Obama a one-term president, seems to have the support of a majority of Americans. A new poll provided to Whispers says that 56 percent of likely voters want the president fired.

According to pollster Doug Schoen, whose new poll shows vast support for the Tea Party movement among voters, the president is still liked by about half the nation. In fact, more like him personally than like his policies. Some 48 percent think he’s a nice guy, while just 42 percent approve of his job performance.

But that personal favorability doesn’t translate into re-election support when voters are asked if Obama deserves a second term. Says Schoen: “Despite voters feelings toward Obama personally, 56 percent say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 38 percent say he does deserve to be re-elected president.” Worse, Schoen adds, “43 percent say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48 percent say Bush was a better president than Obama has been.”

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CBS Poll: Majority of Likely Voters Say Their House Vote is a Referendum on Barack Obama … More Voting Against Obama Than For The One

With less than one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, a new CBS poll has the Republican party ahead in the Congressional Generic ballot over Democrats 46% to 40%. As seen in most of the polls over the last 6 months, independents are breaking sharply for the GOP. To make matters worse for Democrats, even though President Obama has been campaigning nonstop for Democrats, 56% of likely voters say Obama’s support for a candidate has no impact on their vote.

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven’t made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

A majority of likely voters say their House vote is a referendum on President Obama, and more are voting against the president than for him. Thirty-two percent are casting a vote against Mr. Obama, while 22 percent are casting their vote to support him. Forty-two percent say their vote is about something else.

 Rasmussen has the Congressional Generic ballot at Republicans 49% and Democrats 40%. Real Clear Politics has the average polling of Congressional Generic ballots with a 6.5% lead for the GOP.

What might be the most interesting and alarming bit of polling data for Democrats in this CBS poll is the fact that the GOP has a slight lead with woman over Democrats. If that holds true across America on election day, Democrats will only wish there was a tsunami, rather than a follow up volcano, earthquake and tidal wave.

Men favor Republican candidates in their House vote this year by eight points, while the Republican edge is narrower among women.
Likely voters under age 45 are divided in their vote for Congress, while older voters are more likely to vote for Republicans.

Charlie Cook Says Democrat Losses in The House Will Be Enormous in 2010 Midterm Election

With one week to go …

Charlie Cook says that Democrat losses in the House will be enormous  in the 2010 midterm election and the GOP will regain power; however, the US Senate is harder to call. Republicans will have to run the table and pick up an almost unheard of 10 US Senate seats on November 2. As Powerline states, it is a difficult road to hoe when many of the seats that need to be picked up are in traditional Democrat states like CA, WA, PA and IL.

It’s easy to look at what appears to be a gigantic Republican 2010 midterm election wave in the House and feel a little slack-jawed, but not so much surprised. There were plenty signs well over a year ago that Democrats were facing grave danger, but even when expecting an onslaught, one can still be shocked at its size and unrelenting force. It would be a surprise if this wave doesn’t match the 52-seat gain on Election Night in 1994, and it could be substantially more.

On the other hand, the Senate picture is incredibly confused. There is no clear narrative in the Senate, just bizarre ups and downs. Republicans could easily find themselves picking up as “few” as seven or as many as 10 seats. An 8-seat pickup seems about right, but that is not written with a great deal of confidence; there are way too many races separated by very few points.

However, it is not like the 2010 elections are the end, it is just the beginning.

America’s Worst Politician … And the Winner is, Alan Grayson

Who is America’s worst politician … can we only pick one?

In the 2010 midterm elections there is such a plethora of candidates to choose from that would rise or lower to the level of America’s worst politician. However, we have a winner and the hands down choice is … US Representative Alan Grayson (D-FL02). Grayson offers the United States the worst of what any politician could be, a lying, dishonest, angry politician who only seems to seek attention for himself and his over the top rhetoric and sound bites.

There are hundreds of plausible nominees for the title of America’s Second-Smarmiest Politician, but surely the top spot is un-contested. Americans of all political persuasions can come together in affirming one proposition: Public life would be improved by scrubbing Rep. Alan Grayson from it. This act of civic hygiene probably will be performed Nov. 2 by voters of Florida’s Eighth Congressional District. Polls indicate that a majority of them plan to deny Grayson, 52, a second term by electing his resonantly named opponent, Daniel Webster.

As Powerline states, “having George Will undertake an assessment of Florida Eighth Congressional District Rep. Alan Grayson is a little bit like having Samuel Johnson review Soame Jenyns.” Touche. Of course let us not forget the other gems that Grayson has sunk to in embarrassing himself, his party and the House of Representatives.

Grayson’s rhetorical style is schoolyard crude. He has said, “If you get sick, America, the Republican health-care plan is this: Die quickly.” He has compared Republicans to “knuckle-dragging Neanderthals” and Nazis burning the Reichstag. He has said, “I have trouble listening to what [Dick Cheney] says sometimes because of the blood that drips from his teeth while he’s talking.” He has referred to a high-ranking woman official at the Federal Reserve as a “K Street whore.”

At last look at the polls, Grayson trails Webster in the Florida 8th District US House race according to RCP.

Not so honorable mention for worst politicians … any one that would endorse Alan Grayson like Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-NY.