RSSRUT-ROH … According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll: No Sign of Convention Bounce for Barack Obama:
So far there has been no bounce for Barack Obama, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. Although this poll was taken prior to Clinton’s speech. However, is it possible that there may not be a bounce from Clinton’s speech as Honey, Boo Boo tied Slick Willy in the ratings.
(Reuters) – So far, U.S. President Barack Obama has not received much of a bounce yet in popular support from the Democratic National Convention, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Thursday.
The latest daily tracking poll found Republican Mitt Romney still clinging to a narrow lead of 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent among likely voters. Romney had led by 46 percent to 44 percent in Wednesday’s poll.
“We’re not seeing a sort of glimmer, at this point, of a bump,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.
UPDATE I: Don’t expect any bounce after the August 2012 jobs numbers, if anything Obama may get a reverse bounce.
Posted September 6, 2012 by Scared Monkeys 2012 Elections, Barack Obama, Democratic National Convention, Democrats, DNCC, Presidential Election | 4 comments |
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4 Responses to “RUT-ROH … According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll: No Sign of Convention Bounce for Barack Obama:”
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Won’t be a bounce.
It’s 45%-45% until the last week and a half of the election, and by then Romney’s cash advantage will win it.
Romney wins by 6-7 points. Mark it.
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SM: I tend to agree. Was doing an analysis and unless something really bizarre occurs, i can see a 6% win by Romney. Many of these battle ground states are going to go to the challenger,especially after Obama’s lame speech tonight. I am writing a post that has some reasons why the American people are going to explode on election day with their frustration of this President.
R
With all the mistakes made at this convention, I don’t recall anything close since they have been made public by TV.
One thing that is very clear to most thinking people is that the Democrat party has slid so far to the left that they think the people belong to the government.
The people are now generally awake. The orginazations with the aim of stopping voter fraud by the Democrats will cut down a lot of it which will make the margin of victory even larger for the conservatives.
RE: “Although this poll was taken prior to Clinton’s speech.”
I believe it’s customary to wait until after the convention, so polling can occur, to actually look at post-convention results for a bounce. Your RNC poll bounce was posted on the Sunday after the convention, whereas this story is based on data before the 2nd nights DNC broadcast. Hmmm.
Here is what the story looks like as reported Sat, Sept 8, 2012, 12:11 p.m., according to the LA Times:
“Obama’s lead over Romney among registered voters grew to 49%-45% in Gallup’s tracking poll. The 49% for Obama was his highest point in the survey since late April. It represented an increase of 1 point since Friday and a 5-point swing from Romney’s 47%-46% lead in the Gallup survey just before the Republican convention began.”
If Romney had a +4pt lead as Rasmussen found prior to the DNC, then the bounce may be larger than reported, as the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama +2pt (for a net gain of +6pt).
But the real election will happen in the swing states, and national polling is insufficient to predict that.
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SM: Actually its probably customary to wait two weeks after both conventions to account for the knew jerk ignorant reaction. I would agree that it does have more to do with swing state polling.
Some say this campaign is reminding people of 1980. Some say 2004. I would say is a mix between the two. No, it will not be a landslide victory like Reagan over Carter that not how it reminds me of 1980. If everyone remembers, back in 1980 Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid to late September. And, Carter was up 8 points in October. We all know who won.
Also, in 2004 when GWB took on John Kerry, all of the exit polls had Kerry winning until they actually counted the votes. I think that people are actually scared and intimidated to say they oppose Obama for fear of being labeled a racist. Thanks Obama and your minions for making such a thing possible.
When push comes to shove and people vote in private they will choose Romney. Also, like in 1980, the undecided votes will break to Romney, history shows us they always do.
R
#3-SM: From my observations, that reply was about as off-target regarding the Romney/Obama convention polls as possible.
Perhaps disappointing poll results are not all that satisfying to discuss; eh?
p.s. – according to Wikipedia; a “Convention Bounce” (goo.gl/AypDi), as your article refers to, is “after the televised national convention of their party”, and is labeled as “coming out of their conventions.”
Doesn’t sound like two weeks later to me.