Charlie Cook Says, This is One of “the Most Dramatic Shifts I’ve Ever Seen in 40 Years of Involvement in Politics” Referring to the Generic Congressional Ballot

Charlie Cook, political polling extraordinaire of the Cook Political Report, stated that the recent political environment that it is “one of the most dramatic shifts I’ve ever seen in 40 years of involvement in politics.” The shift that Cook is referring to has Democrats in a panic as they try and find answers to right the ship that is taking on water after the failed launch of the Obamacare website and the misrepresentations and lies from President Obama that if you liked your healthcare plan, you could keep it, Period! The Obama mistrust has caused a ripple affect with the Generic Congressional ballot as Obamacare was passed 100% on a partisan Democrat vote. Democrats are damned no matter which way they turn, they can admit Obamacare was a complete mistake that they passed without reading or they can double down and infuriate the American people.

Sure enough, the Democratic numbers in the generic ballot began to pull dramatically ahead, resembling a steep ascent up the side of a mountain, ending about 7 points ahead of Republicans, 45 percent to 38 percent—an advantage that, were it to last until the election, would give Democrats a chance to recapture the House.

Then, in mid-October, the focus shifted from the government-shutdown fiasco to a different debacle, this time a Democratic disaster: the botched launch of the Obamacare website and subsequent implementation problems of the health care law, including termination notices going out to many people who had insurance coverage. The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.

Of course, with the election 11 months away, it’s too early to get really excited about this turnabout, but it demonstrates the volatility we are seeing these days in American politics. It must also give Democrats a sense of déjà vu, back to when the bottom fell out for them during the 2009-10 fight over passage of the Affordable Care Act. In that case, though, they suffered a gradual decline in party fortunes, starting in the summer of 2009 and culminating in the loss of 63 seats and the House majority in November 2010—the biggest drop in House seats for either party since 1948 and the largest in a midterm election since 1938. Democrats didn’t fare much better in the Senate, losing six seats.

From the Cook Political Report, ‘Everyone Hates Washington, but Democrats More Vulnerable.’

If there were a theme for 2014 midterms, it would be “fear and loathing of Washington, D.C.”

Congress is as about as popular as gonorrhea. President Obama’s approval ratings and personal ratings are at the lowest point of his presidency. Republicans, as well, have seen their favorable ratings hit all-time lows.

But while neither party can escape blame or scorn, Democrats are more likely to feel the fall-out than Republicans. Why? Democrats have more vulnerable seats in play in both the House and the Senate. The President’s approval ratings are a bigger driver of electoral outcomes than that of Congress. The Obamacare issue is more likely to be an anvil than a benefit politically for the Democrats. And, of course, there’s history working against Democrats too. See; Itch, Six Year.

But as stated at Hot Air, this is no reason for the GOP to start popping the champagne which I would agree with 100%. Although, the only thing I would disagree with is that the notion that there should be no more problems with the website and no more people will lose their insurance. The American people are not forgiving  when it comes to being lied to. The web site continues to have problems on the back end as they had to  admit that many who enrolled, one in four, or thought they enrolled may not really be. Also, doctors are running away from Obamacare like it is the plague, and it is. Also, even with Obama trying to postpone the enrollment period for the employer mandate until after the 2014 elections, the cancellation notices will be going out long before that.

Republican’s should not allow their present advantage in the generic ballot to spur them to purchase food and beer for a victory party, the 2014 mid-terms are a long time away and their is much that can happen.

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch. Americans forgive and forget easily. However unlikely the scenario, should there be no more issues with the website and no more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep, the initial negative effect of the bad launch could wane.

HO HO HO … Miley Cyrus Twerks Santa at Jingle Ball 2013 Performance (VIDEO)

Miley Cyrus … HO, HO, HO!!!!

For Miley Cyrus what are the holidays without some Christmas “Twerky”? Obviously the 21 year old  Cyrus could care less about being on Santa’s naughty list as she continued  her raunchy behavior that has given her new found fame, or is it infamy? In typical Miley Cyrus fashion, she opted for naughty and not nice during her festive performance at the radio station concert at the KIIS FM Jingle Bill in Los Angeles. Way to keep it classy Miley.

While performing tracks like “Party In the USA,” “We Can’t Stop,” and “#GetItRight” in her now trademark high-cut bikini-bottoms the singer was flanked by a dancing Christmas tree, little human reindeer and Santa. And rather than sitting on Santa’s lap like most good girls do, Cyrus put her usual bump and grind on a rogue Mr. Claus. (Somewhere, Mrs. Claus is looking for a divorce lawyer.)

27 Year Old Illegal Immigrant Juan Corona-Martinez Charged With Raping Deaf-Mute Woman In DeLand, FL

Doing the job that Americans just aren’t willing to do …

27 year old illegal immigrant, Juan Corona-Martinez, has been arrested and held on $50,000 bond. The illegal was charged with the rape of a deaf-mute woman in  DeLand, Florida. According to reports, when Juan Corona-Martinez was questioned the following day by Spanish-speaking detectives, the suspect  claimed initially he did not have sex with her, but changed his story later on. Isn’t that special but what would you expect from an individual who is willing to break the laws of the United States by being in the country illegally? DeLand police noted in the police report that Corona-Martinez is in the United States illegally and that he was a flight risk if released from jail.

Makes you just want to pass amnesty, doesn’t it?

Yea, because entering the country illegally is such a harmless act

Juan Corona-Martinez (picture courtesy Volusia County Jail) of Becca Lane in DeLand is held on $50,000 bond following his arrest on Friday.

The DeLand Police Department says they were called out to Florida Hospital DeLand on November 19th when a 37-year-old woman told a friend she had been raped by Corona-Martinez.

That woman – who was not identified in the arrest report – claims she had met Corona-Martinez at a birthday party on the night of November 18th and invited him and 2 other friends to her home after they had left the party to buy wine.

According to the arrest report, the 2 friends left the woman’s home soon after arriving and Corona-Martinez stayed behind.

She told DeLand P.D. she was cooking food for Corona-Martinez in the kitchen when he approached her from behind and started kissing her neck, telling her that he liked her.

The woman told police she kept telling Corona-Martinez that she did not want to have sex with him, but that Corona-Martinez “did not care”, forcing her into the bedroom so that they could have sex.

Letter Mother Received from Missing New Hampshire Teen Abigail Hernandez Appears to be Genuine … Teen Disappeared on 10/9/13, Letter written on 10/22 & Postmarked on 10/23 … Rec’d Two Weeks Later

15 year old Abigail Hernandez was last seen on October 9, 2013 as she headed home from her high school in the town of Conway, New Hampshire.  At the news conference on Friday, December 6, authorities revealed that Abigail’s mother, Zenya Hernandez, received a letter on November 6 that appeared to be from her missing daughter.  The content of the letter was not made public; however, the letter is said to be authentic. ” Assistant Attorney General Jane Young said,  “We are concerned for her safety. She is not out there alone. She has somebody who is either helping her, whether that be a friend, or what we fear is a foe.”

Calling it “unprecedented,” law enforcement officials announced during a news conference on Friday that a missing New Hampshire teenager who disappeared two months ago on her way home from school wrote a letter to her mother that was postmarked two weeks after her disappearance.

Officials say they kept quiet about the letter for a month out of fear that releasing it publicly would compromise the investigation.

Ramsey noted that one of eight endangered runaways ends up being sexually exploited.

“Though she could have left willingly, someone now could be coercing her,” he said. “Someone now may be manipulating her.”

CNN:

At the news conference, authorities revealed that Abigail’s mother, Zenya Hernandez, received a letter on November 6 that appeared to be from her missing daughter. That letter was kept secret until Friday, said Young, because “law enforcement had to take every possible step to verify its authenticity.”

“And at this juncture, we believe in fact that it was written by Abby and was sent to her mother,” Young added.

Neither federal nor state authorities would discuss the contents of the letter beyond Young saying the writing is in “a tone Abby would have used,” and that the letter underwent “expert analysis” before its existence was announced publicly.

Officials also said revealing details about the letter could potentially trigger “copycat” letters that would slow down the investigation.

The letter was written on October 22, and postmarked on October 23, according to Young, and it was turned over to authorities for investigation after Zenya Hernandez received it nearly two weeks after it was postmarked.

“When we received this letter I will tell you it was unprecedented. We have not seen anything like that in recent times in other investigations, but most importantly, it gave us hope,” FBI Special Agent Kieran Ramsey said at the news conference.

If anyone has any information regarding Abigail Hernandez’s whereabouts, please contact the Conway police at 603-356-5715.

For more updates, read others comments and to provide your own go to Scared Monkeys Missing Persons Forum: Abigail Hernandez.

“The Ballad for Trayvon Martin” Opens at Princeton University

No one will ever mistake ‘The Ballad for Trayvon Martin’ with the ‘Ballad of Davey Crockett.’

Princeton University Orchestra, conducted by Michael Pratt, and the University Concert Jazz Ensemble will play the ‘Ballad for Trayvon Martin’ Thursday and Friday. Hmm, the purpose of this is to exploit pay homage to victims of racial violence. You mean like the “killing fields” in Chicago?

Trayvon Martin continues to be a subject of intense interest for the academic elite. The Princeton University Orchestra and the University Concert Jazz Ensemble is set to debut “The Ballad for Trayvon Martin” today, NJ.com reports.

The goal of the music, according to its composer, noted jazz artist Anthony D.J. Branker, is to pay homage to victims of racial violence.

“I simply want to make a connection,” Branker said, “whether it’s on a level of social consciousness, or music and expression.”

The Daily Caller reports:

The director of the jazz studies program at Princeton University has written a ballad for Trayvon Martin.

If you happen to be in the area, you can catch the world premiere of “Ballad for Trayvon Martin for Orchestra and Jazz Quartet” Thursday and Friday night at Richardson Auditorium on the Ivy League campus.

Tickets are just $15 (and $5 for students), reports The Star-Ledger.

The composer, Anthony D.J. Branker, said he was moved “to the core” by the death of Martin in February 2012.

Martin, a 17-year-old black teenager, was shot by George Zimmerman, a 28-year-old mixed-race Hispanic, in Sanford, Fla.

Branker, who founded Princeton’s jazz program 25 years ago, said the incident reminded him of an incident in his own life that occurred right after he graduated from the elite school.

“I was stopped by police at gunpoint because it was believed I broke into someone’s home,” he told The Star-Ledger. “I fit a profile. Police surrounded my car.”

Branker said the piece isn’t an angry musical screed. Noting that it incorporates a fugue and Brazilian style, he describes the jazz number as “a form of healing and something that could be seen as a composition of hope.”