Charlie Cook Says, This is One of “the Most Dramatic Shifts I’ve Ever Seen in 40 Years of Involvement in Politics” Referring to the Generic Congressional Ballot


Charlie Cook, political polling extraordinaire of the Cook Political Report, stated that the recent political environment that it is “one of the most dramatic shifts I’ve ever seen in 40 years of involvement in politics.” The shift that Cook is referring to has Democrats in a panic as they try and find answers to right the ship that is taking on water after the failed launch of the Obamacare website and the misrepresentations and lies from President Obama that if you liked your healthcare plan, you could keep it, Period! The Obama mistrust has caused a ripple affect with the Generic Congressional ballot as Obamacare was passed 100% on a partisan Democrat vote. Democrats are damned no matter which way they turn, they can admit Obamacare was a complete mistake that they passed without reading or they can double down and infuriate the American people.

Poll_House Race Huffpo

Sure enough, the Democratic numbers in the generic ballot began to pull dramatically ahead, resembling a steep ascent up the side of a mountain, ending about 7 points ahead of Republicans, 45 percent to 38 percent—an advantage that, were it to last until the election, would give Democrats a chance to recapture the House.

Then, in mid-October, the focus shifted from the government-shutdown fiasco to a different debacle, this time a Democratic disaster: the botched launch of the Obamacare website and subsequent implementation problems of the health care law, including termination notices going out to many people who had insurance coverage. The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.

Of course, with the election 11 months away, it’s too early to get really excited about this turnabout, but it demonstrates the volatility we are seeing these days in American politics. It must also give Democrats a sense of déjà vu, back to when the bottom fell out for them during the 2009-10 fight over passage of the Affordable Care Act. In that case, though, they suffered a gradual decline in party fortunes, starting in the summer of 2009 and culminating in the loss of 63 seats and the House majority in November 2010—the biggest drop in House seats for either party since 1948 and the largest in a midterm election since 1938. Democrats didn’t fare much better in the Senate, losing six seats.

From the Cook Political Report, ‘Everyone Hates Washington, but Democrats More Vulnerable.’

If there were a theme for 2014 midterms, it would be “fear and loathing of Washington, D.C.”

Congress is as about as popular as gonorrhea. President Obama’s approval ratings and personal ratings are at the lowest point of his presidency. Republicans, as well, have seen their favorable ratings hit all-time lows.

But while neither party can escape blame or scorn, Democrats are more likely to feel the fall-out than Republicans. Why? Democrats have more vulnerable seats in play in both the House and the Senate. The President’s approval ratings are a bigger driver of electoral outcomes than that of Congress. The Obamacare issue is more likely to be an anvil than a benefit politically for the Democrats. And, of course, there’s history working against Democrats too. See; Itch, Six Year.

But as stated at Hot Air, this is no reason for the GOP to start popping the champagne which I would agree with 100%. Although, the only thing I would disagree with is that the notion that there should be no more problems with the website and no more people will lose their insurance. The American people are not forgiving  when it comes to being lied to. The web site continues to have problems on the back end as they had to  admit that many who enrolled, one in four, or thought they enrolled may not really be. Also, doctors are running away from Obamacare like it is the plague, and it is. Also, even with Obama trying to postpone the enrollment period for the employer mandate until after the 2014 elections, the cancellation notices will be going out long before that.

Republican’s should not allow their present advantage in the generic ballot to spur them to purchase food and beer for a victory party, the 2014 mid-terms are a long time away and their is much that can happen.

Their latest advantage was not built on anything the GOP did, but on the failed Obamacare launch. Americans forgive and forget easily. However unlikely the scenario, should there be no more issues with the website and no more people losing the plans they were promised they could keep, the initial negative effect of the bad launch could wane.

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Rasmussen – Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 36%
  • The Cook Political Report Final Prediction, GOP Gain 50-60 Seats in House, 6-8 Seats in Senate
  • Republicans Well Ahead of Democrats in Generic Congressional Ballot
  • Rasmussen: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 38%
  • Another Polling Trend that Does Not Bode Well for Dems … Republicans Remain Ahead on Generic Ballot

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