Larry Sabato Looks Into his Crystal Ball and Predicts Mitt Romney Will Dominate GOP Primaries Through April
Larry J. Sabato looks into his political Crystal Ball and says that Mitt Romney will dominate the GOP Presidential primaries through April. Last Tuesday’s “Southern Primary” where Santorum won in Mississippi and Alabama really did not change much of anything. At the evening’s end, with Romney’s victory in Hawaii, he wound up winning the most delegates and that is what the game is all about. However, according to Sabato look for Romney to increase his delegate lead in the up coming months.
Credit: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
That’s because their front-running rival, Mitt Romney, appears poised to further pad his lead in delegates in upcoming Republican nomination contests, starting with Illinois next Tuesday and through a northeastern primary day on April 24.
From now until the end of April, we expect Romney to win not only the majority of nominating contests, but also the majority of delegates awarded in these contests.
It’s fair to ask how Romney’s position can be so strong after finishing third in the two major primaries held on Tuesday, Alabama and Mississippi. The most important thing anyone can do on any primary night is to remember the calendar — not the primary schedule but the general election date. The two Deep South primaries appear critical, yet they will be long forgotten by Labor Day, much less Nov. 6. Barring a massive, difficult to fathom shift in this contest, Mitt Romney has a better than 80% chance to be the GOP nominee. No amount of wild tapping on CNN’s magic wall will alter those odds.
Currently as per RCP, Mitt Romney has 496 delegate and Santorum 236. Romney needs 648 more delegates to gain the nomination while Santorum needs 908. Obviously Romney has an easier path to the nomination. However, at this point the only reason why Santorum and Gingrich as remaining in the race is to gain as many delegates as they can under the premise that a delegate gained is one that Romney cannot. The March goes on to the GOP nomination …