Larry Sabato Looks Into his Crystal Ball and Predicts Mitt Romney Will Dominate GOP Primaries Through April

 

Larry J. Sabato looks into his political Crystal Ball and says that Mitt Romney will dominate the GOP Presidential primaries through April. Last Tuesday’s “Southern Primary” where Santorum won in Mississippi and Alabama really did not change much of anything. At the evening’s end, with Romney’s victory in Hawaii, he wound up winning the most delegates and that is what the game is all about. However, according to Sabato look for Romney to increase his delegate lead in the up coming months.

Credit: Sabato’s Crystal Ball

That’s because their front-running rival, Mitt Romney, appears poised to further pad his lead in delegates in upcoming Republican nomination contests, starting with Illinois next Tuesday and through a northeastern primary day on April 24.

From now until the end of April, we expect Romney to win not only the majority of nominating contests, but also the majority of delegates awarded in these contests.

It’s fair to ask how Romney’s position can be so strong after finishing third in the two major primaries held on Tuesday, Alabama and Mississippi. The most important thing anyone can do on any primary night is to remember the calendar — not the primary schedule but the general election date. The two Deep South primaries appear critical, yet they will be long forgotten by Labor Day, much less Nov. 6. Barring a massive, difficult to fathom shift in this contest, Mitt Romney has a better than 80% chance to be the GOP nominee. No amount of wild tapping on CNN’s magic wall will alter those odds.

Currently as per RCP, Mitt Romney has 496 delegate and Santorum 236. Romney needs 648 more delegates to gain the nomination while Santorum needs 908. Obviously Romney has an easier path to the nomination. However, at this point the only reason why Santorum and Gingrich as remaining in the race is to gain as many delegates as they can under the premise that a delegate gained is one that Romney cannot. The March goes on to the GOP nomination …



If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • Larry J. Sabato & The Crystal Ball’s Final 2010 Midterm Call: GOP +55 House; GOP +8 Senate
  • Let’s Look into the Crystal Ball for Senate 2006 (aka, What will Dems Do to Incense the Electorate)
  • GOP Presidential Primary: Reuters/Ipsos Poll Has Romney and Santorum Tied in Ohio
  • Romney Leads Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Poll Ahead of Illinois March 20 GOP Primary: Romney 35%, Santorum 31%, Gingrich 12% & Paul 7%
  • Mitt Romney Appears to be Coasting to Big Victory in Nevada Republican Caucuses (UPDATE: Romney Wins Nevada)




  • Comments

    2 Responses to “Larry Sabato Looks Into his Crystal Ball and Predicts Mitt Romney Will Dominate GOP Primaries Through April”

    1. NGBoston on March 17th, 2012 9:42 am

      Why would any of the GOP candidates in 2012 be talking about anything else, other than what’s in this single, simple paragraph from today’s Wall Street Journal:

      The last four years have seen numerous U.S. economic milestones—four years of trillion-dollar deficits, some $5 trillion in new debt, the loss of America’s AAA credit rating, three years of near-zero interest rates, postwar records for federal spending as a share of the economy, and now the world’s number one corporate tax rate.

      You could add “millions of lost jobs and the worst post-recession ‘recovery’ ever,” too, if you like. If you really wanted to pile on you could mention ObamaCare and how, even before it takes effect, millions of Americans are going to lose their healthcare coverage, and the program is projected to cost twice as much as taxpayers were originally told.

      And then simply turn to the American voters and ask: “Do you really more of THIS?”

      The more Romney hammers away at OBAMA the ECONOMY—the stronger his chances are of gaining the election, and then on wards to the Presidency.

      Please tell me Americans cannot be fooled a second time. Please!

    2. NGBoston on March 17th, 2012 9:42 am

      Why would any of the GOP candidates in 2012 be talking about anything else, other than what’s in this single, simple paragraph from today’s Wall Street Journal:

      The last four years have seen numerous U.S. economic milestones—four years of trillion-dollar deficits, some $5 trillion in new debt, the loss of America’s AAA credit rating, three years of near-zero interest rates, postwar records for federal spending as a share of the economy, and now the world’s number one corporate tax rate.

      You could add “millions of lost jobs and the worst post-recession ‘recovery’ ever,” too, if you like. If you really wanted to pile on you could mention ObamaCare and how, even before it takes effect, millions of Americans are going to lose their healthcare coverage, and the program is projected to cost twice as much as taxpayers were originally told.

      And then simply turn to the American voters and ask: “Do you really more of THIS?”

      Go, Mitt Go!

    Leave a Reply




    Support Scared Monkeys! make a donation.

     
     
    • NEWS (breaking news alerts or news tips)
    • Red (comments)
    • Dugga (technical issues)
    • Dana (radio show comments)
    • Klaasend (blog and forum issues)
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Close
    E-mail It