Could Republican Candidate Bob Turner Defeat Democrat David Weprin for Weiner’s NY-9 Congressional Seat … Up by 6

Oh those Obama coattails … Could the GOP take Weiner’s old seat in NY? Could this be a sign of things to come in 2012? Welcome to the 2011′s version of the GOP Scott Brown special election victory.

YIKES, how much trouble are Democrats in heading into the 2012 elections? According to a Siena Research Institute survey released on Friday, has Republican Bob Turner with a six point lead over Democrat Mr. Weprin. What a shocker this would be for Democrats and a sobering blow heading into 2012. Turner has 50% to 44% lead over Weprin in a heavily Democrat district. This is the special election for the NY-9 Congressional seat of disgraced Anthony Weiner. What was once thought to be impossible, Democrats have seen their lead collapse in the Weinergate special election and are now in complete panic mode, spewing out negative ads ahead of the Tuesday election.

A new poll released on Friday showed Bob Turner, the Republican, with a six-point lead over Mr. Weprin. The election is on Tuesday, and even though lawmakers have discussed eliminating the district in redistricting next year, the race has become symbolically important as an indication of how much Mr. Obama’s unpopularity might affect other Democratic candidates.

“This has been a difficult campaign, and this campaign has had some major operational problems,” said Assemblyman Vito J. Lopez, chairman of the Brooklyn Democratic Party.

Mr. Lopez said that he expected Mr. Weprin to win, but that the campaign needed to become much more aggressive in the final days.

It is a “PERFECT STORM” against Democrats in NY-9. Weprin is facing the backlash of the Weiner scandal and New Yorkers disgust, Barack Obama’s poor job approval numbers, especially in dealing with the economy and the unanimous belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction. It is Obama’s reverse coattails that is costing Democrats dearly in political elections. What does this mean for 2012?

Many Democratic strategists are privately blaming Obama for their party’s difficulties in both districts and worry that if his numbers don’t improve he could hurt their chances at retaking the House in 2012.

What is the underlying problem for Democrats and namely Barack Obama in this Congressional race, the NY-9 special election is being billed as vote against Obama, Democrats and the direction of the country. According to the polling data, Barack Obama has 43% favorability and a 54% unfavorable. OUCH, don’t look for Obama to be making any appearances for Weprin. Democrats in Brooklyn and Queens have soured on Obama, the economy and the direction of the country.

Likely voters in the district are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 74 percent saying the country is headed in the wrong direction; Turner wins a striking 94 percent of those voters. Mood toward the direction of New York is much rosier, though — a 47-percent plurality say the Empire State is on the right track.

The economy remains voters’ top concern, with 32 percent listing it as the most important factor in making their decision, including nearly half of Turner’s supporters. But there is a possible beacon for Weprin: Medicare and Social Security isn’t far behind at just 28 percent, and that’s been the focus of late, with Democrats falling back to their successful strategy that helped win them a GOP seat in the western New York’s 26th District this May.

A recent Megellam survey also has the GOP candidate Turner ahead of Democrat Weprin, 44.6% to 40.4%.

More from Moe Lane at Red State on the Congressional races NY-9 and NV-2.