GOVERNOR RACES – 2010:
There are presently 26 Democrats and 24 Republican US Governors. Make that 23 Republicans, with one retiring opportunist independent Charlie Crist in Florida who is now running for the US Senate as a so-called independent. So many are focused on the US House and Senate elections where many are predicting the House will go Republicans and the GOP will pick up numerous Senate seats. However, do not forget the all important Governor races in 2010.
There are 37 Gubernatorial races up for grabs in the all important 2010 elections. How important is this years governor’s elections … we just had the 2010 Census and state redistricting lines will be redrawn. Some think Republicans will pick up a net total of 32 by election eve’s end. As Betsy’s Page states, it looked bleak for the GOP after the 2008 elections and Obama was swept into office, my what a difference two years make. GOP governors wins in 2010 will echo a decade.
Democrats now hold 26 of the 50 governorships, with 37 of them on the ballot this year. Stuart Rothenberg, another independent analyst, anticipates that Republicans will pick up eight new governorships, giving them control of 32. Below the radar screens of these elections, Republicans are also optimistic about gaining seats in the 88 legislative chambers (of a total of 99) for which there are elections this year. These legislative elections will determine which party holds the upper hand in the 2011 congressional and legislative reapportionments that will be based on the 2010 census.
Going into the 2010 elections Democrats appear to have a commanding lead in the following six statesas they are considered strong Democrat, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, New York and New Hampshire. Colorado had been considered a toss up state between Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican Scott McInnis, until Tom Tancredo decides to jump into the race and has all but split the GOP vote and handed the election to the Democrats. Tancredo, who initially supported of McInnis, says he entered the race because neither McInnis or Maes are now capable of winning. Wrong, his entrance in the race guaranteed the GOP would not.
Democrats also appear to be ahead and poised to win in the following two states, Minnesota and Massachusettes. Of the eight states that are either solid or strongly leaning Democrat, three are considered pick ups from the GOP.
On the Republican side, the GOP is considered a shoe in in the following 14 state governor races, Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Alaska, Idaho, South Dakota, Utah, Texas, Wyoming and Arizona. Of the 14 predicted wins in 2010, five of the states will be pick-ups from Democrats (TN, MI, IA, OK, WY).
Then there are states that are leaning Republican like Illinois, Maine, Georgia, Pennsylvania. GOP candidate Paul LePage in ME is out ahead and poised to take a state from the Democrat term limited Balducci. Republican Bill Brady is out ahead of Democrat Pat Quinn by 8%. This would also represent a GOP pick up. In PA, look for Tom Corbett (R) to win over Dan Ornorato (D) as the GOP candidate leads by 10%.
The ones that will sway the tide of the governor races are the ones in the toss up category:
- California – It is to close to call between Meg Whitman (R) and Jerry Brown (D). How will the highly anticipated US Senate election play in voter turnout and voting patterns for the governors race. Once again we are witness to a deep blue state like CA and a closer race than would be expected.
- Florida – More will be determined on this race after the up coming state primaries.
- Maryland – In the deep blue state of MD, incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley and Republican challenger Bob Ehrlich are in a close one as the polls show that the Democrat has only a 1% point lead. This race could not be any closer, will the state of the economy be the ultimate reason as to what wins this election and voter turn out.
- Rhode Island - This race appears to be a battle between Democrat Frank Caprio and former Democrat, now independent Lincoln Chafee, while the Republican is a distant third.
- Vermont- Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R) has a 7% point lead on Democrat Deb Markowitz. Of all states, it it hard to believe that VT has a present term limited popular GOP governor and is poised to have yet another. This race is close to going in the leans Republican category.
- Oregon- Chris Dudly (R) leads John Kitzhaber (D) 47% to 44%. A Republican leading in the polls in a liberal satte like Oregon, it is a sign of the times and a gauge of the political climate in the United States.
By all accounts, Democrats look to pick up 4 governor seats from Republicans in California, Connecticut, Minnesota and Hawaii. However, Republicans appear poised to pick up 13 governor seats presently held by Democrats in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio, Illinois, Wyoming, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa and Kansas.
However, with so many states to close to call … it is any one’s guess. Although by all accounts, the GOP will make great strides in the Governor races in 2010. Voter turn out and an anti-Obama agenda vote in 2010 could really skew the results.