Larry J. Sabato & The Crystal Ball’s Final 2010 Midterm Call: GOP +55 House; GOP +8 Senate

Political election guru and handicapper Larry J. Sabato at the Crystal Ball has made his final call for the House and Senate for the 2010 midterm elections and they are as follows … Republicans will pick up +55 seats in the House and+8 seats in the Senate. Sabato also predicting a GOP pick-up of 8 to 9 Governors.

HOUSE
Even at this late date, we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains, based on more complete information now available to all. Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling. In fact, if you’ll go back to our pre-Labor Day analysis, that’s exactly what we suggested +47 would end up being.

SENATE
The Crystal Ball has operated within a very narrow range all year. When others were projecting GOP Senate gains of just +3-4, we were already at +6. Depending on the primary results and other circumstances, we’ve landed between +6 and +9 in the last half-year. We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

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Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 … New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge

Wouldn’t it be real news if the Chairman of the DNCC admitted that the Democrats would lose?

The top democrat says they will not lose the House. Really? Then why are Democrats struggling in the “bluest” of “blue” states l;ike New York? Tim Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, went on ABC’s ‘This Week’ and said the following shocking comment … the Democrats would retain the House. WOW, THAT’S NEWS!!!

Kaine told “This Week” anchor Christiane Amanpour that Democrats would maintain control of the House in the midterm elections nine days from now.

I do, I do. I think it’s going to be close,” he said. “These races are very close, but from this point forward, it’s all about turnout and ground game. And we’re seeing good early voting trends and we’ve got work to do, but we think we can do it.”

So is all the polling wrong, Amanpourasked. Kaine didn’t address that question, but said the wind was at Democrats’ backs.

Does any one think that the head cheerleader of the Democrats is going to admit they are going to lose? I mean seriously folks, these people could not tell the truth about Obamacare, the stimulus or creating jobs. America is just so enamored with Democrat House Speaker as seen by her 29% approval rating. It is only Obama who thinks she is a great Speaker, not the American voters. . Kaine must be drinking the Kool-Aid from the latest Newsweek poll  and not all the others that have the GOP ahead in the Congressional generic ballot.

Obvious, most Democrats do not share Kaine’s optimism. Most all Democrats are fearful of losing the House of Representatives in 2010 which can explain why they seem to be running as Republicans and as far away from the policies of Pelosi and Obama as they can.? Maybe it is because like in a Deep Blue state like New York, there are 11 possible seats that could change hands. 11!!! The Republicans just need a pick up of 39 to reclaim the majority. Currently, 27 of the 29 New York House seats are held by Democrats. All that could change in the 2010 midterms and what occurs in NY state could be the political indicator for what happens November 2nd election eve.

The 11 races up for grabs in New York. In a state where 93% of the House seats are held by Democrats, imagine what it means for Democrats to lose 4 or 5 seats in New York state?

1. Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R): In the 19th Congressional District (Westchester, Putnam, Orange), Republican Nan Hayworth, an ophthalmologist, is in a statistical tie with Rep. John Hall in the latest Monmouth University poll. Hall, a movement radical/singer (Orleans) who won in reaction to the Iraq war in 2006, has toed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s line ever since.

However, numerous polls have the Repubpican candidate ahead like the Siena poll that has Hayworth ahead by 3%, while The Hill’s recent battleground polling had the race tied. How has the landscape changed in 2010? The incumbent Democrat Hall won his House election races in 2008 and 2006 by a 59%-41% and51%-49% respectively. Hall now finds himself in a virtual tie withan anti-incumbent Democrat scent in the wind.

2. Bishop v. Altschuler:In the 1st CD (Eastern Suffolk), Rep. Tim Bishop is behind Republican Randy Altschuler42-40 in the latest McLaughlin poll. A defeat of Bishop, a long-term incumbent, would send shock waves through the state’s delegation.

However, a recent Siena poll shows the GOP candidate down big. However, GOP candidate received the politcal endorsement from NJ Governor Chris Christie and has a nice war chest for down the stretch ads. Some recent polls only show the incumbent Democrat up by 2%.

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Barack Obama Said What … Nancy Pelosi “will go down in history as one of the finest speakers in the United States of America.”

President Barack Hussein Obama said what?

At a campaign rally in Minnesota, President Obama praised Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as follows and that she “will go down in history as one of the finest speakers in the United States of America.”Are you serious? No wonder Obama gives himself a passing grade on being President, by his comments regarding Pelosi, he is delusional.

He praised Pelosi, saying she “will go down in history as one of the finest speakers in the United States of America.”

This is the message that Obama wants to tell voters with almost one week to go before the 2010 midterm election? Nancy Pelsoi is supposed to be a great Speaker who had an overwhelming majority of Democrats in the US House and struggled, threatened and intimidated House members to pass the Obama liberal/socialist agenda. If she is such a great Speaker why have so many in her own party stated they would not vote for her again if democrats actually retained the House in 2010.

Also, how is one supposed to be one of the finest Speakers of the House who has a 29% approval rating? More and more people have an negative view of Nancy Pelosi. After all, in many respects she is looked upon as the post child for partisanship and the comment she made regarding Obamacare where, we have to psss the health care bill to find out what is in it.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s favorable rating is down seven percentage points since May to 29%, a new low for her since assuming the top congressional post.

Pelosi’s ratings were 2-to-1 positive, 44% to 22%, when she first assumed the speakership in January 2007, but they became closely divided by March of that year and remained so in November 2008. Views became more negative than positive for the first time in the first half of 2009, …Spanning the period these issues were in the news, her favorable rating fell from 42% to 32%. Pelosi’s favorable rating recovered slightly in the first half of 2010 to 36%, but it has since tumbled to the new low.

After the 2010 midterm election, Nancy Pelsoi will be relegated to minority status and might just be the emphasis to have her retire from politics altogether.

61% of Independent Voters say Democrat Leadership More Left Wing Than They Are

Who is the party of extreme? With less than 2 weeks to go before the 2010 midterm elections … Democrats take another hit with a poll.

According to The Hill, 61% of independent voters in 10 battle ground states said that the Democrat party was more LEFTWING than they. After months of trying the brand the GOP as the party of NO and the tea Party as too extreme, independent voters in America think that it is the Democrats that are too extreme.

In another potentially troubling sign for Democratic candidates, three in five independent voters in key House districts say Congress’s Democratic leadership is to the left of them on the political spectrum.
 
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found that 61 percent of likely independent voters in 10 battleground House districts — a critical swing demographic — think the leadership under House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is more liberal than they are.

Only 16 percent of independents say Pelosi and Reid — both of whom have been vilified by Republicans on the campaign stump — hold political views similar to their own.

I guess, we are all not socialist now,contrary to the LEFT MSM. As stated as Weasel Zippers, who knew that socialism was so unpopular … um, WE THE PEOPLE knew.Isn’t it telling that polling is looking to blame Pelosi and Reid and not Barack Hussein Obama as being extreme? The Democrat minions are being thrown under the bus.

Whoa Nellie … 99 Democrat Seats Now in Play, Can You Say Former Speaker Pelosi?

All signs point to a House Foreclosure for Speaker Nancy Pelosi …

As reported at the Politico, 99 democrat held seats are now in play in this years 2010 midterm election. So what happened to the Democrat spin that the House races were beginning to tighten? To the contrary as discussed at Wake Up America, the races are not getting closer, in fact the number of House seats held my democrats is expanding.

Soon to be retired Harry Reid and ousted Speaker Nancy Pelosi

With two weeks remaining until Election Day, the political map has expanded to put Democrats on the run across the country — with 99 Democratic-held House seats now in play, according to a POLITICO analysis, and Republicans well in reach of retaking the House.

It’s a dramatic departure from the outlook one year ago — and a broader landscape than even just prior to the summer congressional recess. As recently as early September, many Republicans were hesitant to talk about winning a majority for fear of overreaching.

Today, however, the non-partisan Cook Political Report predicts a GOP net gain of at least 40 House seats, with 90 Democratic seats in total rated as competitive or likely Republican.

With all due respect to the political pundits in the know, who could not have foreseen this coming after Obamacare was forced through the House and Senate against the will of the American public with no bi-partisan support from Republicans? Following the passage of Obamacare 219 to 212, Scared Monkeys said, “You might celebrate your treachery tonight Dems, you will be crying in 2010, 2012 and every two years thereafter. Your insolence and complete disregard against the will of the American people will never be forgotten.”

Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and the Democrats thought the American people would forget and get over it. However, we knew better. Nancy Pelosi in the past stated that the health care that “I see the way we did health care reform as a way of getting something done for the American people.” The arrogance and disdain for the American people was beyond the pale. Then came Pelosi’s  coup de gras … “We need to pass ObamaCare so that the public can find out what’s in the bill.”

We knew it was terrible and Dems were in trouble when even SNL went after Reid, Pelosi and Obama.

With all of this outrageous behavior by Democrats … is it a shock that they find themselves two weeks out of a political turkey Donkey shoot? Some Democrats say, according to The Hill, that Pelosi will not run again for Speaker. That’s nice; however, Nancy Pelosi will not have to make that choice as WE THE PEOPLE in two weeks are about to make the decision for her.

Wow, you thought 99 was an unbelievable number for Democrat House seats in play … some are saying 117!!!