Larry Sabato’s 2014 Crystal Ball Predicts GOP Will Pick Up 8 Seats and Win Control of Senate 53-47

With the 2014 midterm elections upon us, Larry Sabato of The Crystal Ball has his final 2014 picks …

The Crystal Ball predicts that the GOP will take control of the Senate away from Democrats by adding a net 8 seats. Also, they predict the Republican Party will pick up more seats in the House; however, will lose some governorships. Larry Saboto is predicting the final US Senate tally after possible runoff elections will be Republicans 53 – Democrats 47. As pointed out by The Daily Caller, Georgia and Louisiana “Toss-up/Leans Runoff” in recent weeks because we expected both to eventually go to runoffs have been changed to “Leans Republican”. Also, the Kansas Senate race has been changed for “Toss Up” to “Leans Republican”.

Pic – Crystal Ball

Republicans Take a Big Lead in Colorado Early Voting … Will Cory Gardner (R) Defeat Incumbent Sen. Udall

COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH FOR THE GOP IN EARLY VOTING …

More good news for the GOP in Colorado as early reports have 104,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast their ballots as the state conducts its first major mail-in election. I guess Democrat voter are too busy getting stoned. Republican Cory Gardner is leading incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Udall in the RCP polling by 3.8%. Also amazingly, Republican challenger Bob Beauprez is tied with incumbent Democrat Gov. John Hickenlooper.

Republicans are taking a big lead in early voting in Colorado.

A report from the Secretary of State on Friday showed that 104,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast their ballots as the state conducts its first major mail-in election.

Voters can also drop off ballots at polling stations and register through Election Day.

Republicans usually lead in early returns in Colorado but rarely by such hefty margins. Democrats and some observers expect that lead to shrink by Election Day.

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley

DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley,  then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.

Joni Ernst for US Senate

If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.

The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.

Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.

Des Moines Register Iowa poll:

• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.

• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.

• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.

• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.

• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP.  Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.

Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!

UPDATE I: In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber.

In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.

Why? Let’s look at the map.

As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.

But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.

UPDATE II: Democrats trotted out Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton to stop Joni Ernst … and she Widened her poll Lead.

The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.

You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.

They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.

Incumbent Democrat Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor Says Barack Obama Has “Been a Drag” on His Campaign”

DEMOCRAT SEN. MARK PRYOR SAYS OBAMA HAS BEEN A DRAG ON HIS CAMPAIGN … NO, YOUR VOTING WITH AND AGREEMENT WITH THE OBAMA AGENDA HAS BROUGHT YOU DOWN.

Incumbent Democrat Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor tries in vain to distance himself from President Barack Obama as he finds himself well behind by 7% in the recent RCP average polling to Republican challenger Tom Cotton. Unfortunately for Pryor, it is hard to suddenly call Obama a drag on his campaign and distance one’s self when Sen. Mark Pryor had voted with Obama 93% of the time. However it has been even worse this year … Roll Call lists Pryor in their 10 Most Vulnerable Senators of 2014 and has him voting in support for Obama’s agenda 97% of the time.

 In recent days, Pryor has gone farther than he ever has to put daylight between himself and the president, telling Fox News that the biggest liability in his re-election bid is Obama.

“Well, you know, he has been a drag. I mean, I am just going to be honest about that,” Pryor said. “People here know that I have had my fair share of disagreements with him. You can look at gun control issues, Keystone pipeline. I have never supported one of his budgets.”

Sorry Mark Pryor, it is not Obama that is a drag on your campaign, it is that you voted with Obama’s failed policies that the good people of Arkansas soundly reject. You do not represent the folks in Arkansas and much like Blanche Lincoln in 2010, you will be retired from the US Senate.

Isn’t that interesting that Mark Pryor considers President Barack Obama a drag on his campaign, because in2008 Pryor said that Barack Obama  was “exactly the right guy for this moment in history”. REALLY? So Sen. Pryor, do you still feel the same? Challenger Tom Cotton has stated that Pryor has voted with Obama 93% of the time and it has been proved by Politifact to be a true statement.  Make no mistake about it, Pryor voted to pass Obamacare. Also, he voted for the Obama illegal’s amnesty plan.

Sen. Mark Pryor cast the deciding vote on Obamacare and says he would do it all over again and vote for it, even though the people of Arkansas strongly disapproved of it and the so-called Affordable Health care law is not affordable and does not ensure you can keep your doctor or your insurance, if you liked it. Pryor does not represent Arkansas, he represents the Obama agenda.

Here’s Pryor’s presidential support rate since 2009, when Obama took office.

Year – Presidential support rate

2009 – 95 percent
2010 – 92 percent
2011 – 95 percent
2012 – 91 percent
2013 – 90 percent

Pryor’s votes have lined up with Obama’s stated position on that vote between 90 and 95 percent of the time for the past five years. Cotton’s figure — 93 percent — is right smack in the middle. (The average is 92.6 percent.) So it’s pretty accurate.

It was not that long ago when Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor was singing the praises of Barack Obama and stumping for him asking others to vote for him. Pryor stated that Obama had the leadership skills, the vision and the hope that America needs. Pryor went on to say in 2008 that elections have consequences. Pryor asked those in attendance to go out and work as hard as they can for Barack Obama and “let’s bring the chance to America that we need”. Flash-forward to 2014 and I guess Pryor has had a change of hear. Guess what Sen. Pryor, elections do have consequences and the change that America needs includes removing you from office.

EXIT QUESTION: Pryor says Barack Obama has been a drag … is that racist?

Frightening Predeictions for Senate Democrats in Upcoming Midterm Elections from NY Times and WAPO

It’s Halloween time, but Senate Democrats have more to fear than ghosts, goblins, witches and vampires … NT Times and WAPO predict Democrats are the Walking “political” Dead …

With just days to go before the 2014 midterm November 4th elections, two very liberal papers, the New York Times and Washington Post, are predicting a GOP Senate takeover. The NY Times predicts that there is a 69% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate.  According to the Times, Republicans will win Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Kentucky, West Virginia and Montana, leaving the seven most competitive states below in question. The NY Times predicts that Democrats will win the senate races in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas; however, the GOP will run the rest of the seats in play in Georgia, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado. If the New York Times is correct, the GOP will hold a 52-48 control of the Senate after the elections.

According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 69% chance of gaining a majority.

State-by-State Probabilities #
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.

However, if Democrats think that the NYT’s 69% chance of a GOP victory is bad … the WAPO is predicting a 95% chance of the Republican party taking back control of the US Senate.

The model’s factors fall into three categories:

1) The national landscape. On average, the better things are going in the country, the better the president’s party will do in an election.  We capture national conditions using two measures: presidential approval and change in gross domestic product. At the same time, the president’s party usually does worse in midterm years than presidential years even after accounting for the first two measures, so our model takes account of that, too.

2) The partisanship of the state or district. Obviously, House and Senate candidates will do better when their party dominates a district or state. We measure this with Obama’s share of the major-party vote in 2012. In Senate races, we also include the incumbent’s share of the major-party vote from the election six years before, which is the incumbent’s share of the Democratic and Republican votes, combined with an indicator for whether that incumbent is running or the seat is open. The incumbent’s previous election matters mainly when the incumbent is running again.

3) Key features of the race. The model currently takes account of whether the incumbent is running, which captures the well-known incumbency advantage in congressional elections. For the Senate, we also build in each candidate’s level of experience in elective office. In the Senate, we categorize experience into five levels, from someone who has never held an elective office to an incumbent senator. For states where there hasn’t yet been a Senate primary, we impute candidate experience using historical averages from similar races.  (After the primaries, we will also add candidate experience to the House model.  There, the measure will be simpler: whether the candidate has held any elective office.)

Question: The NY Times and WAPO have been among the two most liberal media outlets that have carried the water for Barack Obama and Democrats, why are they calling the election now for the GOP? Is it because they want to put out faux-news and give Republicans voters a false sense of security or is it because they see the handwriting on the wall and are trying to mantain some sort of credibility by finally reporting the truth?

Harry Reid literally begs for money as he sees his job of Democrat Senate Majority Leader slipping away. Just curious Dingy Harry, if you can triple one’s gift, you need money how? I have a deal for you, You can just double my donation of $0.00.

But I’m emailing once more because this moment is absolutely critical. I know you’re a busy person, but this is an absolute MUST-READ:
Our Final Weekend Get Out The Vote Push is on the chopping block: We’re still $1,389,071 short with 24 hours left.
If we don’t fill that budget gap, we’ll be forced to scale back our plans to mobilize 575,000 voters this weekend. These are voters who could determine the outcome of the whole Senate.
I’m begging for your help to close the gap IMMEDIATELY. If we fall short before the last end-of-month deadline tomorrow, our chance to keep the Senate gets a whole lot smaller.
Will you pitch in to the Final Weekend GOTV Push before the final deadline in 24 hours? We’ll triple-match your gift.

Other nightmarish 2014 US Senate predictions for Democrats. None of the pollsters are predicting that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and Harry Reid (NV-D) will no longer be Senate Majority Leader.

• Five Thirty Eight Politics
• Daily Kos
• Huffington Post
• Princeton Election Consortium
• Predict Wise