Barack Obama Predicted 2012 Winner Based on Flawed Analogy … short term economy and scandal

Just the other day Allan Lichtman, the man who gets the elections right, predicted that Barack Obama would win reelection in 2012. However, the premises he used were flawed to say the lest and questionable at best.

One of the conditions that Lichtman used was 5-Short term economy: Undecided, as we don’t know how things will look a year from now. Undecided? If Lichtman stated that the long term economy was a negative for Obama, how could the short term be an undecided? From the Gateway Pundit via Zero Hedge comes the following that many leading economic blogs state that the US is already in a recession … undecided on this, hardly.

While the key market moving event from last Friday may have been Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech which merely left the door open to future QE episodes, the most important event from an economic standpoint was the first GDP revision Q2, which dropped from preliminary 1.3% to a sub stall speed, in real terms, 1.0%. What is just as important is that as the following chart from Bloomberg demonstrates, the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: “Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.”

Let alone the fact that the CBO said that there would be sluggish growth through 2012. Mr. Lichtman, when is the election take place again? You might want to revise your thinking.

Lichtman might also want to hold the phone on 9-Scandal: Obama wins because no major scandals have affected him or his administration. We mentioned it briefly in the other day’s post that “Fast & Furious” is growing legs even with the best attempts by the Obama WH and a complicit lapdog MSM to cover it up. However, this scandal has not even been touched into the deep affects of how this will impact Obama. As mentioned at the Gateway Pundit, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) told Greta Van Susteren last night that the House Oversight Committee is being gamed by the Obama Administration.

There is no way that a border agent gets killed by a foolish illegal immigration program like this and there will not be hell to pay. The only question is how high will this go.