Monmouth Poll Shows Race is Tightening in PA … Hillary Only Ahead by 4 Over Trump, Down from 10

According to a recent Monmouth University poll, the presidential race in Pennsylvania appears to be getting closer and closer. Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 44% back Trump. Another 3% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party. Her lead was 10 just a month ago, but as the scandals mount, Hillary’s lead is shrinking. The RCP average of polling shows Hillary up by 3.4 and this state will be a tough one to win for Trump; however, all the polls are trending in his direction. The Keystone state will be a major indicator on election night as to how Trump is doing nationally. The question is, will Hillary pick up the necessary votes in Philly and Pittsburgh to win the state?

Hillary Clinton maintains the lead in Pennsylvania, although by a smaller margin than one month ago. The Monmouth University Poll finds she currently has a 4 point edge over Donald Trump, which is down from a 10 point lead in October and an 8 point lead in August. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has pulled ahead of GOP incumbent Pat Toomey by 3 points. The race was tied last month, while McGinty had a 4 point lead in the summer.

Among Keystone State voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 44% back Trump. Another 3% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% back Jill Stein of the Green Party. This marks a narrowing of Clinton’s 50% to 40% lead from one month ago and her late August advantage of 48% to 40% over Trump.

“Clinton is still in the lead, but the race has tightened in the past four weeks. It looks like this shift was in the works even before Friday’s FBI bombshell, which has made only a small contribution to this overall narrowing,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support. The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news. Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news.