RSSSlip, Sliding Away … Mitt Romney Now Leads Obama 48% to 45% in Latest Rasmussen Poll
Not only has the Barack Obama post DNC convention bounce disappeared, Obama now trails GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 3 points, 48% to 45% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Obama finds his lead “Slip, Sliding Away” in the wake of more bad jobs reports, an economy continuing to flounder and the Middle East is on fire as President Obama shows little leadership, but instead continues to do what he does best, be the Campaigner in Chief. As Americans ask themselves are they better off today than they were four years ago, they realize the answer is no.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors. Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce. Last week, Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact on the race.
Posted September 14, 2012 by Scared Monkeys 2012 Elections, Are You Better Off Today Than You Were 4 Years Ago, Barack Obama, Campaigner in Chief, Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012, Presidential Election | 4 comments |
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4 Responses to “Slip, Sliding Away … Mitt Romney Now Leads Obama 48% to 45% in Latest Rasmussen Poll”
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Anyone that’s followed this race with an iota of an open mind and a smidgen of reality understands that Mitt Romney has lost ground at an alarming rate. Now that’s not to say that he’s toast but to say that President Obama is “slipping away” is a stretch. Relying on Scott Rasmussen as a nonpartisan or accurate pre-election pollster doesn’t add credence to your argument. Within the last 48 hours, Fox News gave Obama a lead of 48-43, Reuters/Ipsos gave a 7 point lead, NBC/Journal poll gave Obama 49-44 in FL, VA, and 50-43 in OH. And the list goes on and on and on.
But here’s what’s important while being consistent with most polls. While NM, MI, PA, CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA and WI are closely contested states (granted Obama looks favorable in NM, MI, & PA while Romney looks good in FL and VA) NC is the only state where Romney has a confirmed lead. It’s worth saying too that polls don’t show a great deal of undecided voters in these states. That’s important.
So at this point, what does the Romney/Ryan team have left to sell and how well can they sell it? People in general may not be happy with the Economy or with President Obama but they don’t seem to like the Ryan budget and there’s really no way of sugarcoating it to the middle class who Romney has now defined as those making $250 a year. As the election nears, Mitt will need to remain gaffe free while selling himself as a likeable guy. And that’s a tall order.
It looks like, barring any Oct surprises or major changes, the debates will be the determining factor. As it appears to me, all Obama has to do is lay low, stay calm, and ride it out. Romney is the one that has to step his game up. As we’ve seen, he usually shoots himself in the foot when he does that.
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SM: Do you actually read the posts or just spew Democrat Talking Points? The Rasmussen poll is exactly what it was before the conventions, so yes it is a true statement to say that the bounce is slip, sliding away. BTW, I like the song so its fitting.
Did Barack Obama have a big post convention bounce … YES HE DID. Did Obama have a bounce with Rasmussen following the DNCC … YES HE DID. Is that bounce gone and Romney is back in the lead … YES IT IS.
Sorry, Rasmussen is the gold standard in polling and has called the last 3 presidential elections spot on … including Obama’s win over McCain.
Lets do some polling analysis 101:
If an incumbent has a lead and is polling under 50% with no credible third party candidate … that is a terrible indicator. Especially when the opponent is trending positive with Independents and those that think he will do a better job with the #1 issue, the economy. History tells us that by a 3-1, 4-1 margin, the undecided break against the incumbent.
I did read the post SM and to be honest, I was trying to be generous, trying not to relay a political opinion but rather use solid numbers to work with.
You seem content that your argument is sound based on Scott Rasmussen’s record overriding all other polls. Respectfully, I disagree. I do agree that his polling has been deadly accurate in elections but they were numbers that could be proven the next morning, not hypothetical calls such as this that will never be proven one way or another. If you really want to look at consistent polling, you’ll find that Rasmussen has consistently tilted in the GOP’s favor, edging back to closer numbers as the election nears. In short, I see him as taking his credibility and using it as a political advantage when he can easily get away with it.
All that aside, Mitt Romney has slipped in most polls on who would do better on the economy. He’s lost ground considerably on the “are you better off today than 4 years ago” question. As for independent voters, a Fox News poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday showed Obama up by 11%, up 4 points from last month.
So again, I’m simply using consistent numbers from polls. While I personally don’t put a lot into Rasmussen, it still averages out in Obama’s favor. And that’s not even considering other arguments.
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SM: And look where FOX was on the 2008 election, #13. Sorry, but too many of these polls have to heavily skewed to Democrats. When you allowed skewed polls into the average it skews the average as well. It is obviously a close election between Obama and Romney. Every every one knows that a poll is a snap shot, its the trend that is more important. That being said, if you actually do not consider Rasmussen the Gold Standard of polling accuracy, when the consensus is, they are … then your thought process is skewed.
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
— Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.
Here is the list –
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
If you research New York Times FiveThirtyEight database (and yes, I can understand you may feel NYT may have a political slant but these are actual numbers and not opinions), you’ll find a long history that in reality, disqualifies Rasmussen as even a credible pollster. Take the 2010 Congressional race for example. The 105 polls Rasmussen released for Senate and Gov races were off by 5.8 points wit 13 off by 10 or more point. The Hawaii Senate race was off by 40 points, the largest error of any pollster in the database 15 year history. It’s worth noting that a mere 12 cases was overestimated favoring Democrat and those were in 3 points window.
Quinnipiac University, which missed the final margin between the candidates by 3.3 points while SurveyUSA missed it by 3.5 points, on average.
It’s also telling that Rasmussen polled Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36% on his 1st day as president while no other pollster had him higher than 20. But again, this wasn’t something that could be proven as verifying those numbers would be impossible. So we really only had Rasmussen’s record, as we knew it, to go by.
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SM: We shall see. All Rasmussen does is get it right. The rest of the polls, IMO, are in many cases so slanted that it is done purposeful to create a false narrative from false sampling. Its not like Rasmussen said the McCain would beat Obama in 2008. Instead they nailed it.
There is a little think called credibility and a track record. Most every other poll pales in comparison. And speaking of credibility, the NY Times, really?
R
Your argument relies solely on your perception of Scott Rasmussen while ignoring not only the partisan slant arguments of Scott, his missed calls on so many elections, and that all other polls are some vast conspiracy, but so many other factors of this election. It’s as if you’ve been asleep for 3 months, woke up curious of the upcoming election, Goggled Rasmussen, and returned to your slumber relieved that Obama lost the election.
If Rasmussen was so credible, why would Intrade be betting on Obama and giving him 63%? From the time of my first post when I said “Romney is the one that has to step his game”, The Hill ran an article saying “Republican lawmaker say Romney needs to change course”. HotAir says “Some GOP senators are worried that Romney has yet to give voters a clear vision of what to expect if he is to become president”.
The top stories of the week have been that the RNC went flat, the DNC gave a solid 6 point bump, that bump is staying, and that Romney is slipping. At the Value Voter Summit Friday morning, many social conservative were worried that Romney wasn’t gaining ground on Obama. Paul Ryan made the statement there that: “I’m not the only one who has told Mitt that maybe he needs to talk more about himself and his life. It wouldn’t hurt if voters knew more of those little things that reveal a man’s heart and his character”, obviously in need of making some changes in their approach.
What’s wrong with your assessment that Obama is slip/sliding away is that it’s only off by 180 degrees. Obama has gained and is gaining while Romney appears to be crashing to the ground. They GOP is seriously in panic mode. All we have to go by on that is news outlets and polling. You can’t except any poll other than Rasmussen and you dismiss any news reports because you don’t like the messenger.
By the way, I’ve always been a Simon and Garfunkel fan.
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SM: Good God are you kidding … you are going to take Intrade over Rasmussen, seriously dude? I hope you don’t make too many trips to Vegas.
Wrong again Keebler, the polls show that Obama is losing what he gained following the convention bounce. That being said, I will trust no poll unless they provide the sampling. The deceitful MSM and their polling arms have been criminal in their sampling and then reporting it as if it were truthful news.
Averaging polls is not enough. Before that even occurs any false/in the tank for Obama polls are discarded. Only then can you average.
Do I think its close, you … although that is mind boggling with such a pathetic, epic failure in office. However, sadly this is what America has become as a nation, no one takes person responsibility for their actions and the y blame everyone else for this issues and plight in life. Obama is merely capitalizing on that sad state of affairs with the people.
Any one who resided over sch a pathetic, low, stagnant growth economy should be tossed out on their ear no matter what party they belong to. With the job growth rate under Obama, it will take 40 years to recover.