RSSThe DNC Convention Bounce is Over, Rasmussen Has Romney Up by 1% over Obama … 50% Believe Romney Better for Economy
It would appear that the sugar high of the post Democrat Convention poll bounce is over. The most recent Rasmussen poll has Mitt Romney now up by 1% over Barack Obama, 47% to 46%. It would also seem that Romney has energized his base as Republicans are more motivated to vote for Romney than Democrats for Obama. Also, it what may be one of the most important indicators of the 2012 Presidential election, the likely American voters trust Romney over Obama with the economy 50% to 43%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 49% and Obama 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.
Posted September 13, 2012 by Scared Monkeys 2012 Elections, Are You Better Off Today Than You Were 4 Years Ago, Barack Obama, Economy, Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012, Obamanation, Obamanomics, Polls, Presidential Election, Rasmussen | 3 comments |
If you liked this post, you may also like these:
Comments
3 Responses to “The DNC Convention Bounce is Over, Rasmussen Has Romney Up by 1% over Obama … 50% Believe Romney Better for Economy”
Leave a Reply
According to RCP polling (goo.gl/aY7no); their average today, including the latest Rasmussen poll, shows Obama +3.3.
The included polls in the average are quite recent, with 3 including results through 9-12, and all of the 8 having results within 9-4 through 9-12.
In addition, the last 3 Rasmussen results shown there (RCP) were: Romney +1, Romney +2, and Romney +3 (from latest to oldest). Isn’t that a downward trend from this one pollster across the last 5-6 weeks?
Anyways, those are the RCP numbers; can’t say I know for a fact what they mean.
______________________________
SM: I too use RCP to analyze polling data; however, their #’s can be skewed as well. So many of these polls are so heavily weighted to Dems that it creates a misrepresentation of polling data. Thus, one has to dig down much deeper than taking a poll at face value. Below is a list of the most trusted and accurate polling firms … Rasmussen is tied for #1. They have been year in and year out pretty much the gold standard of polling
Take a look how the others that you are using as today’s RCP average. Personally, I think RCP needs to revamp their data process and can no longer just take these numbers and just regurgitate them. If the polling model does not reflect commonly accepted ones (or at lleast close), it needs to be thrown out and not counted.
Democracy Corps (D) Obama +5 [#12 most accurate]
FOX News Obama +5 [#13 most accurate]
Gallup (Thursday) Obama +6 [#20 most accurate]
Esquire/Yahoo! News Obama +4
Reuters/Ipsos Obama +3 [#21 most accurate]
ABC News/Wash Post Obama +1 [#17 most accurate]
CNN/Opinion Research Obama +6 [38 most accurate]
IBD/CSM/TIPP +2 Obama
The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? 2008 election
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Romney said he wasn’t concerned about new polls showing him trailing in Virginia and Ohio – even though it’s virtually impossible for him to get the 270 electoral votes he needs without victories in those two states.
_____________________
SM: He can actually get 270 w/o one or the other, but not both.
He is not concerned because of two things, it is far too soon and two, Romney is not really behind. An Obama lead of 47% to 45% is not an Obama lead. Not when there is precedent of 4 to 1 undecided voters going to the challenger, especially in a bad economy.
The continued poor economy and the poor handling of the Middle East is going to take its toll on Obama;s #’s.
Thanks for that info. There are times I think of polling more as potentially flawed and less scientific than deserved.
I really have to laugh when a poll with a MOE of 3 pts reports its results with 2 decimals; they don’t get it that such values aren’t, by definition, accurate to that apparent precision.