2010 Midterm Senate Election Round Up … Republicans Lead in many Races to Take Back Senate?

US Senate Races in 2010 Midterm elections.

How much will the economy, unemployment, federal spending, taxes, record deficits and a Democrats attempt to force Obamacare on “We the People” affect the 2010 elections?

Following the Scott Brown victory in the special election in Massachusetts, Democrats presently have a 59-41 advantage in the Senate as independents Lieberman, CT and Sanders, VT both caucus with the Democrats.

Republicans and Democrats will each be defending 18 Senate seats.  There are six retiring Republican Senators that will have to be defended in an open election. Democrats had 5 Senators retiring, including MA Senator Paul Kirk who’s seat was decided on January 2010 when Republican Scott won the special election.

Republicans will need to gain a +10 in pick ups during the midterm election in order to regain control of the US Senate. It would appear to be a tall order; however, the mood of the country and the polling data suggests it is not out of the realm of possibility. The Generic Congressional Ballot is presently at Republicans 44%, Democrats 35%.

Presently we have Republicans with a +9 pick up in 2010. Question, if Republicans pick up nine seats and there is a tie, would Liberman caucus with Republicans?

One thing is apparently obvious when reviewing the 36 Senate races in 2010. Republicans will have a much easier time defending their seats than Democrats. Even what some would think are the most safe Dem seats, at this point appear to be in play.

• SOLID REPUBLICAN – 19
  
• LEANS REPUBLICAN – 8
  
• SOLID DEMOCRAT – 7
  
• LEANS DEMOCRAT – 2

1. Arkansas - Presently held by Democrat Blanche Lincoln.

All of the polls have incumbent Blanch Lincoln behind the suspected Republican challenger Boozeman by 23% points.  Rasmussen has Lincoln trailing every potential Republican challenger as her favorability ratings have fallen and they can’t get up. Lincoln can thank her vote for Obamacare for her plight and her likely departure from the US Senate. Stick a fork in Blanche Lincoln, she is done.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+1). SOLID REPUBLICAN

2. California – Presently held by Democrat Barbra Boxer.

One would think that a Senate race was a solid win for Democrats. However, not since Barack Obama became President and the political climate in the US is anti-Democrat incumbents. It is incomprehensible to believe that Boxer only leads her Republican rival former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the most recent Rasmussen poll by 3 points, 46% to 43%.  The trend of support has been to Fiorina as in Nov. 09 Boxer had a 9% point lead.

Then again, no one though Scott Brown would win in Massachusetts either. How bad and detrimental to Democrats was Obamacare, in California, 49% favor the health care plan, while 48% oppose it. Boxer presently has a 4% point lead over Carly Fiorina.

To close to call bright now but it is a Democrat hold for the time being, but the Senate seat is in play … LEANS DEMOCRAT.

3. Colorado – Presently held by Democrat Michael F. Bennet.

According to recent polls incumbent Democrat Senator Michael Bennet is in real trouble against the presumed Republican challenger Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton. Norton leads Bennet 51% to 37%, a two-point gain for her from last month as Bennet is witnessing a Rocky Mountain low. Is it possible that Bennet could get defeated in the Democrat primary by former state House Speaker Romanoff . The story in Colorado is about anti-incumbency and many wonder whether an Obama campaign visit fir Bennet is going to be yet another Obama campaign kiss of death.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+2). SOLID REPUBLICAN

4. Illinois – Presently held by Democrat Roland Burris who was appointed after Barack Obama was elected President in 2008. Burris is not going to run in 2010, this will be an open seat election.

Illinois represents a major targeted state for Republicans for the symbolic nature of taking over President Barack Obama’s former Senate seat. Following the recent primaries, Republican Mark Kirk won big, while Alexi Giannoulias won a tough Democrat race. Shortly after the smoke cleared from the primary, polls showed that Kirk had a 6% point lead over Giannoulias, 46% to 40%. Republicans stand poised to pick up this open Democrat seat as voters not affiliated with either party, the Republican holds a sizable 59% to 22% lead.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+3). LEANS REPUBLICAN

5. Kentucky - Presently held by Republican Jim Bunning who is retiring. This will be an open seat election. With Jim Bunning retiring, GOP candidates Trey Grayson and Rand Paul have wide leads over the Democrat challengers Daniel Mongiardo and Jack Conway. Kentucky has been a RED state that will see the GOP hold the Blue Grass state.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN.

6. Missouri – Presently held by retiring Republican Kit Bond. This will be an open seat election.

Republican candidate Roy Blunt continues to lead Democrat challenger Robin Carnahan in the latest poll 49% to 42%. The poll data is trending toward Blount as this represents a 1% point gain from January, a 11% gain from December.  Like many states across the country, The Show Me state is opposed to Obama’s tax hikes and spending policies which could be the reason for the poll trending and why Republicans will hold the seat.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, LEANS REPUBLICAN.

7. Nevada – Presently held by Democrat Majority leader Harry Reid.

Incumbent Senator Harry Reid has become the poster boy for Obamacare and the distasteful back room, non-transparent deals. This race represents one of the major symbolic wins that Republican are going after in 2010 to send Senate Majority leader harry Reid home to Nevada. Presently Reid trails all Republican hopeful challengers. Against the two strongest Republican challengers Lowden and Tarkanian, Reid does not poll above 40%. There could be a strong anti-incumbent backlash against Reid and Obama as Barack Obama won 55% of the vote in Nevada in November 2008; however, now 46% of voters in the state approve of how President Obama is performing. Also, only 16% of Nevada voters have a very favorable view of the longtime senator Harry Reid while 46% regard him very unfavorably.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+4). LEANS REPUBLICAN

8. New Hampshire – Presently held by retiring Republican Judd Gregg. This will be an open seat election.

Sadly Judd Gregg is stepping down and retiring from the US Senate, he has been a tremendous Senator for the Granite state. Presently, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic candidate Paul Hodes in New Hampshire’s US Senate contest 49% to 40% (Jan ’10) and represents the Republicans best chance for victory in NH. The most recent February ’10 Rasmussen poll has Ayotte ahead of Hodes 46% to 39%. Hodes biggest obstacle is overcoming the Live Free or Die states Independents fleeing from Barack Obama. There is no state in America that is more independent in heart, mind and spirit than NH and they are not liking the “hopee, changee” Obama thing.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, LEANS REPUBLICAN.

9. North Dakota – Presently held by retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan. This will be an open seat election.

This race looked to be a stunning Senate loss for incumbent Dorgan to candidate John Hoeven who had not even announced that he was running. However, with the poll numbers and the writing on the wall, incumbent Byron Dorgan stated that he would not run and all but handing the ND Senate seat to the GOP.  Rasmussen shows that popular Republican Governor John Hoeven will crush any Democrat challenger. Paint the state RED, Hoeven will win in a landslide.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+5). SOLID REPUBLICAN

10. Florida – Presently held by retiring Republican George LeMieux. This will be an open seat election.

The real story in Florida is the Republican primary between Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio. Both Christ and Rubio are far ahead by double digits of the Democrat candidate Kendrick Meek. However, Rubio is now ahead of Christ in a reversal of fortune 49% to 37%. No matter who the Republican is that wins, although it appears to be Rubio, Republican will win Florida. As of a Feb. 23, 2010 Rasmussen poll, Meek is still way behind both Rubio and Christ, 51%-31%and 48%-32%, respectively.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN.

11. Connecticut – Presently held by the retiring Christopher Dodd. This will be an open seat election.

It is unfortunate that the scandal plagued Christopher Dodd decided to retire from the Senate. In retiring, Dodd took a sure victory away from Republicans and placed the Senate seat back in the hands of Democrats. Richard Blumenthal will now be the Democrat candidate and polling has him well ahead of the Republican challengers.  Republicans can only hope for a “Scott Brown-like” miracle.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT

12. Pennsylvania – Presently held by one time Republican, now Democrat Arlen Specter.

Republican challenger Pat Toomay presently has a 47% to 37% lead over the incumbent Arlen Specter. Specter’s role in the Obama health care bill will be his undoing in PA. With the Massachusetts win by Scott Brown, the Keystone state appears poised to go republican as well.  Let alone the fact that Specter is not a real Democrat, but one of political convenience, the mood of the country and PA is one of change and most likely an election of Republican Pat Toomay.

A recent Franklin & Marshall poll (2/15-2/21) has Toomay up over Specter 44%-34%.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+6). LEANS REPUBLICAN

13. Ohio – Presently held by retiring Republican George Voinovich. This will be an open seat election.

Republican Rob Portman presently has a narrow leads over his two chief Democratic opponents , Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (43%-39%) and Secretary of State Jennifer Bruuner (42%-38). It appears what might determine the next Senate in OH is the Obama effect. Barack Obama carried Ohio over John McCain by a 51% to 47% margin in November 2008. However,  Obama presently has in Ohio a 49% approval vs. 51% disapproval rating of his president’s performance.  More to the point, a noticeably while 29% strongly approve of Obama’s performance, 41% strongly disapprove.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, LEANS REPUBLICAN

14. Delaware (special election) – Presently held by Democrat Ted Kaufman who was appointed when Joseph Biden became Vice President in 2008. This will be an open seat election as Kaufman announced that he will not be a candidate in the special election in 2010.

Every one thought this would be a close race between Republican Mike Castle and VP Biden’s son Beau Biden. That was until Biden dropped out and the former Senate seat of VP Joe Biden has all but been given to the Republicans. Castle is presently ahead by 31% points in the most recent Rasmussen poll (2/25/10) 53% to 32% over Chris Coons. Even a Daily Kos poll has Castle ahead by 18% points. Stick a fork in this race, it’s done.  What a damning loss this one will be in the midterm election for Democrats, losing the Senate seat of the sitting VP.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+7). SOLID REPUBLICAN

15. Louisiana – Presently held by Republican David Vitter.

Republican David Vitter is comfortably leading Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon 57% to 33%.   The 24% point lead represents an even larger lead for Vitter than in January.  Vitter is now well over the 50% threshold that incumbents looks for in polling data. It’s safe to say that Vitter will be reelected.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

16. Indiana – Presently held by Democrat Evan Bayh.

Everyone figured that Indiana would be one of the few states where Democrats could breathe easy as popular moderate Democrat was an easy choice for reelection.  That was until Evan Bayh stated he was tired of DC, tired of politics and decided to call it quits and will not seek reelection.

The open Senate seat has pretty much paved the way for either Republican former GOP Congressman John Hostettler or Former Senator Dan Coats to step in and beat the last minute Democrat choice. Hostettler and Coats are both up big over the Democrats challengers.  Bayh’s decision to not seek reelection has really put the Senate in play for a Republican take over.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up (+8). LEANS REPUBLICAN.

17. Hawaii – Presently held by Democrat Daniel Inouye.

Eight term incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye was reelected in 2004 with 76% of the  and has announced that he will seek another term. Barack Obama won Hawaii with 72% of the vote in 2008. This is one of the few states that Democrats need not worry about on election eve.  This is probably the most sure bet state that Democrats can count on in 2010.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT

18 New York – Presently held by Democrat Charles Schumer.

Two term incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer was reelected with 71% of the vote in 2004.  Barack Obama easily won NY in 2008 with 63% of the vote and the Republican party sadly appears to be in disarray in New York State. This will be an easy hold for Democrats.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT

19. New York (special election) – Presently held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. She was appointed by Dem Gov. David Paterson to fill this seat from Hillary Clinton who resigned to take the Sec. of State position. This is a special election for the seat, the normal election cycle for this Senate seat is in 2012.

What is the problem with the Republican party in New York state? This seat is there for the taking and a huge prise for Republicans, yet Rudy Guiliani has already said that he is not going to run and former NY Gov. Pataki has also said that he will most likely not run either. Both would have easily defeated Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. What a colossal missed opportunity for Republicans.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT

20. Oregon – presently held by Democrat Ron Wyden

Incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden has a 49% to 35% lead over law professor Jim Huffman, the most prominent Republican reportedly considering running against him. With the liberal leanings of Oregon it would seem difficult at best for Republicans to pick up a seat here.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT

21. Washington – Presently held by Democrat Patty Murray.

A recent Rasmussen poll shows that Republican challenger Dino Rossi has a small lead 48% to 46% lead over incumbent Democrat Patty Murray. However, there is a problem Rossi says so far that he’s not interested in running for the Senate.  Without Rossi, Washington state  looks like it will go Democrat.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, LEANS DEMOCRAT.

22. Wisconsin – Presently held by Democrat Russ Feingold.

It appears that the candidate Feingold who ran initially on term limits is back for an attempted 4th term reelection. Interestingly enough, Feingold is polling under the 50% incumbent threshold against all challengers.  However, if Republican and former MN Governor Tommie Thompson decides to run, it will be a game changer. In the most recent Rasmussen poll (2/18/10) Thompson is up 48%-43% over Feingold.  The anti-Democrat, anti-Obama fever has spread to Wisconsin. If Thompson enters, look for a Republican pick up, in any event Democrats will have to spend big money defending a state they thought was a sure thing Obama won WI with 56% of the vote and Feingold is polling at about 47% against challengers not names Thompson.

This Senate seat is going to be a Republican pick up if Thompson runs.  (+9). LEANS REPUBLICAN.

23. Alaska - Presently held by Republican Lisa Murkowski.

Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski was reelected to a full term in 2004 with 48.6% of the vote. John McCain won Alaska in 2008 with 60% of the vote and Murkowski will have fundraising aid from former Governor and GOP sensation and idol maker Sarah Palin. The question is would Palin be interested in a run for the Senate before making an attempt at a Presidential run? Polls show she would easily unseat Murkowski.  In any event, the seat will remail Republican.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

24. Arizona – Presently held by Republican John McCain.

GOP incumbent John McCain seeks his fifth term in 2010.  The primary opposition he will face will be in the Republican primary against Conservative J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative from Arizona. However, McCain will have Sarah Palin campaigning for him. Let’s hope he remembers he is a Republican after he wins in November.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

25. Georgia – Presently held by Republican Johnny Isakson, Johnny.

First term Republican Johnny Isakson was elected with 58% of the vote in 2004 and is in a state that has been strongly trending Republican. Isakson’s Democratic challenger will most likely be  RJ Hadley, the chief of staff to the Rockdale County Commission. He has indicated that he will seek the Democratic nomination. No worries, Isakson in a cake walk.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

26. South Dakota - Presently held by Republican John Thune.

First term Republican John Thune was elected with 51% of the vote in 2004 and McCain garnered 53% of the vote in 2008.  At this point he faces no real Democrat challenge. Look for Theune to win by a wider margin in 2010.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

27. Alabama – Presently held by Republican Richard Shelby.

GOP incumbent Richard Shelby is seeking a fifth term in 2010.  Alabama is one of the most conservative voting states in the US. Shelby was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2004 and look for the same in 2010. Alabama is yet another easy hold for Republicans in 2010, a trend that is becoming very common.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

28. Maryland – Presently held by Democrat Barbara Mikulski.

Democrats can breath easy in the MD Senate race, Barbara Mikulski seems to be one of the few incumbent Democrats not on the hot seat in 2010. With no real Republican challenge in MD, Mikulski polled 54% to 36% against an unnamed challenger.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT.

29. Vermont – Presently held by Democrat Patrick Leahy.

Six-term incumbent Democrat Patrick Leahy will face a primary challenge against
Daniel Freilich; currently a Captain in the United States Naval Reserve and a physician specializing in internal medicine. Len Britton has announced his candidacy for the Republicans. Does it really matter in The Socialist Republic of Vermont? Leahy won in 2004 with 71% of the vote and Obama won VT with 68%. The state is no contest, hell would have to freeze over for this state to go RED. This will be the easiest win of the midterm election night for Democrats.

The election result will be a Democrat Senate hold, SOLID DEMOCRAT.

30. South Carolina – Presently held by Republican Jim DeMint.

First term Republican Jim DeMint was elected with 54% of the vote in 2004.  Look for more in the same in 2010. DeMint looks like a prophet in making his Obama “Waterloo” comment regarding health care. Much of the Republican momentum and anti-Obama fever in the 2010 midterms is a result of the unpopular health care bill that Obama and Democrats continue to refuse to listen to the will of the people. DeMint wins easily.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

31. Kansas – Presently held by retiring Republican Sam Brownback. This will be an open seat election. We give Sam Brownback major kudos for sticking to his self imposed term limit of two terms. If he had run, he would have won in a landslide.

Two House Republicans, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, will battle it out for the Republican nomination. Former Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius was seen as a potential candidate until she  accepted the nomination by President Barack Obama to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.  Once again the Obama effect has a negative effect in the Senate 2010 races. There is no real Democrat challenger except Charles Schollenberger. It makes no difference, easy GOP win.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

32. Oklahoma – Presently held by Republican Tom Coburn.

Freshman Republican Tom Coburn was elected with 53% of the vote in 2004 and is poised to run for a second and final term in 2010. The Democrats have no real challenge to Coburn and OK is one of the most Republican states in America. Coburn has taken a serious role in the health care debate against Obama and Democrats. As Barack Obama looks to force Obamacare on the people, Coburn stated in his weekly address: “By an overwhelming margin, the American people are telling us to scrap the current bills, which will lead to a government takeover of health care, and we should start over.”

Update, 3/1: According to Rasmussen poll,  Coburn up  52% to 40% over Democrat Brad Henry

The idea that a Democrat in Oklahoma in this political climate could win in 2010 is a pipe dream.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

33. Idaho – Presently held by Republican Mike Crapo.

Republican incumbent Mike Crapo seeks a third term in 2010. The Democrats did not even bother running a candidate against Crapo in 2004 and it would appear that they will not either in 2010. Idaho is a solid red Republican state and will be an easy victory in 2010.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

34. Utah – Presently held by Republican Robert F. Bennett.

Three term Republican Bob Bennett was reelected with 69% of the vote in 2004, McCain won easily in 2008 and the trend will continue in 2010. For Utah being such a Conservative voting state, Bennett was hardly a conservative in his voting. No matter, Bennett wins easily for Republicans and another easy hold.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

35. North Carolina – Presently held by Republican Richard Burr.

Incumbent Republican Richard Burr is seeking a second term and has opened up an even wider margin over all of his Democrat challengers. Burr is polling at or over 50% against his Democrat rivals. NC went for Obama in 2008, that will not happen again for Democrats in the 2010 midterms. Burr will win a second term going away.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN

36. Iowa – Presently held by Republican Chuck Grassly.

Five term Senator Republican Chuck Grassly looks to make it six in 2010. Potential Democrat challengers include Tom Fiegan, Bob Krause, Saleh Mohamed and Roxanne Conlin. In the most recent Rasmussen poll (2/22/10) Grassly had a large lead on all challengers polling at 55% to 56%.

The election result will be a Republican Senate hold, SOLID REPUBLICAN.

If you think 2010 looks like a disaster for Democrats, look what is in store for them in 2012 during what looks to be a highly motivated Republican party Presidential election with Independents having left Barack Obama.

In 2012 out of the 33 Senate races that will be contested, 23 are presently held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with Dems and only 10 are held by Republicans. The GOP has far fewer to defend as compared to the  Donkeys by a 23-10 margin. That does not even consider just how many will retire if things get too bad.

Check out some of the vulnerable races in 2012:

• WV – Robert Byrd will be 95 years old.
• ND – Kent Conrad could be the victim of the anti-Obama vote.
  
• NE – Ben Nelson and the corn husker kickback, Nelson already trails by 31.
  
• FL – Bill Nelson and his preferential Obamacare deal
  
• VA – Jim Webb in newly “Red” Virginia like what swept Bob McDonnell into office.
  
• OH – Sherrod Brown in a swing state like Ohio in a Presidential year. How much of the vote against Obama will be a vote against Brown?
• PA – Robert Casey in a swing states that could trend against the incumbent President.
• NY – If Kirsten Gillibrand wins in 2010, will there be a strong GOP candidate like Rudy t unseat her in 2012?