Rut-Roh, More 2008 Obama Voters Switching Sides Than Those Who Voted for McCain in 2012 Presidential Election

Yet just another example of my what a difference four years makes …

According to a recent Gallup poll, more individuals who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are switching sides as opposed to those who voted for John McCain. More people are remaining loyal to the GOP and Mitt Romney than they are to Obama in the 2012 Presidential election. In an election that is supposed to be a squeaker, a shifting electorate away from Obama, no matter how small is important and telling.  The National Review brings up a key and important point in that this 9% change from Obama in 2008 makes many of today’s polling data rather suspect when we are witness to polling data demographics heavily weighted to Democrats.

Eighty-six percent of voters who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are backing Obama again this year, a smaller proportion than the 92% of 2008 John McCain voters who are supporting 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Nine percent of 2008 Obama voters have switched to supporting Romney this year, while 5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama.

Thus, it follows that fewer voters are supporting Obama this year than in 2008. But the race remains close because Obama’s margin in 2008 was large enough that he could still be tied or in the lead this year if his support is a few percentage points lower.

The data do underscore the high degree of party loyalty in voting across the last two elections. All told, 79% of registered voters are supporting the same party’s candidate in 2012 as in 2008.